Back on July 2, the New York Yankees swept a doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians to improve to 58-21, putting them on a record pace of 119 wins at nearly the halfway point of the season. They led the major leagues in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed, and not-so-hushed comparisons to the famous 1998 team that won 114 games began to pop up. Little did Yankees fans know that doubleheader would be the high point of the season — at least other than Aaron Judge breaking the American League record with 62 home runs.
The Yankees went just 41-42 the rest of the way in the regular season to finish with 99 wins, knocked off Cleveland in a tough five-game division series, and then suffered a four-game sweep against the Houston Astros in the ALCS, going down in a wave of strikeouts and defensive miscues. What happened to the dominant team of the first half? Sure, there were some injuries, but those were mostly to the bullpen, and no doubt the team was simply playing over its head those first three months. But as the Yankees’ World Series drought now reaches 13 seasons, it means another big offseason for general manager Brian Cashman, starting with the biggest question of the entire offseason for the entire sport: Will they re-sign Judge?
Notable free agents: OF Judge, SP Jameson Taillon, RP Aroldis Chapman, RP Zack Britton, RP Chad Green, OF/INF Matt Carpenter, OF Andrew Benintendi, SP Luis Severino ($15 million team option), 1B Anthony Rizzo (opt out)
We’ll get to Judge. The Yankees’ interest in Taillon could be tied to Frankie Montas’ health, after he ended the season with shoulder discomfort, while Severino’s team option is a no-brainer. The Yankees will be happy to cut bait with Chapman and Britton, at least at their 2022 salaries — a combined $30 million for 37 innings of work. Carpenter bounced back from baseball purgatory with a 1.138 OPS in 154 plate appearances, but with Giancarlo Stanton locked in at DH, he might look for more playing time elsewhere. Rizzo has been a nice fit at first base and had a solid season with 32 home runs and a 131 OPS+ — he’ll likely opt out, but maybe the Yankees can swing another two-year deal with him, especially since they need his left-handed bat.
Trade candidates: SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 2B Gleyber Torres
With top prospect Anthony Volpe on the verge of the majors, Kiner-Falefa would be an extra body, especially since Oswald Peraza can also play shortstop if Volpe needs a couple of months in Triple-A (Oswaldo Cabrera also played some shortstop down the stretch and in the playoffs, although he appears stretched there as a regular). Torres could be another candidate if the Yankees think Cabrera or Peraza can handle second base — plus DJ LeMahieu could play there on a regular basis, with Cabrera taking over the super-utility role.
Extension candidates: SP Nestor Cortes is entering his first arbitration year and the Yankees could look to sign him to a deal similar to the Severino contract (five years, $55 million including the team option).
1. Where will Aaron Judge be in 2023?
The Yankees offered Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million extension in spring training, he turned it down, and then he went out and mashed those 62 home runs. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel polled some MLB insiders late in September and the estimates on Judge’s free agent contract ranged from seven years and $259 million to 10 years and $375 million. Judge will be entering his age-31 season, so there will be some concerns about an Albert Pujols/Miguel Cabrera-type meltdown as he gets older, but some team will pay him, and most believe that figure will get to $300 million.
Will it be the Yankees? It’s hard to imagine Judge in another uniform, but history also says that when players of this magnitude reach free agency, they almost always sign elsewhere. Of course, the Yankees can outbid any team if they’re willing to do so — and getting rid of some bad money by parting with Chapman and Britton will help the Steinbrenners fit Judge into their “budget.”
If Judge does sign elsewhere? Well, Aaron Hicks is still around as Harrison Bader takes over in center field. Cabrera could probably handle left field, although he might not be a good fit for right. Outside of Judge, it’s not stellar pickings in free agency among outfielders: Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Benintendi and Joey Gallo (just kidding, Yankees fans). By the way, Judge created an estimated 80 runs more than an average hitter in 2022, so replacing him with a league-average hitter would cost the Yankees about eight wins from their 2022 total. Yeah, they need him back.
2. Will they let the kids play?
One way to sign Judge is to cut bait on those highly paid veterans. The Yankees’ prospect pipeline has been pretty barren in recent seasons, and Cortes was certainly a lucky scrap-heap signing a couple of years ago. But they have several young guys who should be able to contribute:
Fox: He hit .249 with 21 home runs, 35 doubles and 50 stolen bases at Double-A and a month in Triple-A. But that came after a slow start in which he hit .197 in April and .207 in May. Many top prospects jump from Double-A to the majors these days, so Volpe shouldn’t need much more time in the minors. But with the Yankees, there are expectations to perform immediately, rookie or not; they’ll want to be sure he’s ready.
Cabrera: The switch-hitter came up as an infielder, but he ended up playing left field when Benintendi went down. He fared well in 171 PAs with the Yankees, producing a 109 OPS+.
Peraza: He hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases at Triple-A and hit .306 in 18 games with the Yankees.
Clarke Schmidt: The Yankees used him primarily as a reliever in the majors, and maybe that’s the ultimate role for him, given some of the injury issues he has had in the minors.
Austin Wells: The Yankees obviously love Jose Trevino’s catching, and Wells’ bat is ahead of his glove, but he could hit his way into a backup role.
Clayton Beeter: Acquired from the Dodgers for Gallo, he made 23 starts in the minors, pitching just 77 innings — but fanning 129, so they could probably fast-track him to the majors as a reliever.
Everson Pereira: This is more of a long shot since he has just 29 games above Class A, but the 21-year-old Venezuelan could play himself into the outfield picture in the second half.
3. How the heck do they beat the Astros?
Yes, the AL East promises to once again be a fierce battle with the Blue Jays, a healthier Rays team and even the up-and-coming Orioles, but the Astros are the American League rival that looms above all others for the Yankees. They’ve now defeated the Yankees in the ALCS in 2017, 2019 and 2022, and the three series told a familiar story: The Yankees didn’t hit much.
A clear problem: a lack of left-handed hitting in the Yankees’ lineup. The only left-handed pitcher on Houston’s postseason roster was Framber Valdez, and that pitching staff just chewed through the Yankees. Maybe this isn’t a big issue in the regular season — the Yankees had the fifth-highest OPS against right-handers — but it seems to manifest itself against a pitching staff that rolls out one power righty after another and a bullpen of relievers with wicked sliders. The Yankees were 23rd in the majors in left-handed plate appearances, although they were tied for ninth with 77 home runs. But that included the surprising Carpenter (15 home runs) and the departed Gallo (12). With Rizzo and Carpenter both likely free agents, the top returning lefty is Cabrera, as the switch-hitter hit all six of his home runs from the left side.
Again, there doesn’t appear to be much help here in free agency, so maybe Cashman turns to trades: Pirates switch-hitting center fielder Bryan Reynolds or maybe one of the Diamondbacks’ young outfielders (Daulton Varsho, Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy all hit left-handed). Or, heck, let’s throw this out there: Shohei Ohtani in the blockbuster deal of the offseason (with Stanton playing an outfield corner).
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