Ezekiel Elliott’s best days appear to be behind him. Since signing that mammoth six-year, $90 million extension in 2019, Elliott has struggled to live up to expectations. His yards per carry plummeted from 4.7 in 2019 to a career worst 3.8 in 2022, bringing his volume and efficiency stats along for the ride.
Recognizing he’s no longer the focal point of the offense he once was, it’s been reported Elliott is open to the idea of playing at a reduced salary. On the books for $16,720,000 against the salary cap, it’s probably going to take more than just “less.”
Skip Peete, Elliott’s long-time running back coach, will not be brought back by the team and that could indicate something about how the organization will approach the position in the offseason.
While an outright release would cost the Cowboys $11,860,000 in dead money, a cut designated as post-June-1 would result in $5,820,000 in dead money. That opens up the possibility for compromise as a solution.
How replaceable is Elliott’s production
It’s important to know exactly how Elliott stacks up against the field.
Yards per attempt is a number many look at to grade efficiency. The problem here is more often than not, they’re reliant on the offensive line and = the types of opportunities rather than act as a barometer of success.
Pollard ran behind the same line as Elliott and put up considerably better yards-per-carry numbers (5.2 compared to 3.8). It’s also important to point out; the average number of defenders in the box against each was the same (6.9 per player profiler); Elliott wasn’t facing worse circumstances as a runner, although the Cowboys clearly used Elliott in short-yardage situations more often than they did Pollard.
A great gauge for running backs is rushing yards over expected. An expectation for each run is based on defenders positioning and offensive line blocking. Pollard’s RYOE of 0.47 places him seventh overall in the NFL, while Elliott’s -0.47 RYOE ranks him 27th overall).
Elliott ranked No. 54 in yards created per touch, No. 41 in breakaway run rate and no. 48 in juke rate (player profiler). He generally rated between 27 and 54 in most major efficiency categories last season, indicating he’s a player at replacement level.
Opportunity costs
Looking past the finances, what is the impact of retaining a declining player like Elliott? When does his existence become a detriment to the team and a progress stopper at the position?
Such analysis is difficult to make given the unknown situation with Tony Pollard. Pollard, a free agent this off-season, is not guaranteed to return. No one wants Elliott to steal carries from Pollard, but what about a nameless, faceless option in the backfield?
By the numbers detailed above, he’s replaceable and Dallas may not even need a draft pick to do it.
Even if the Cowboys get to bring Elliott back for pennies, he runs the risk of being a progress-stopper on an extremely young team.
There are a finite amount of snaps in a game and for a season. Every carry Elliott gets, is a carry a different player doesn’t.
In 2019, Jason Witten came back to Dallas after a brief stint in broadcasting. He offered to play at a reduced role and at a reduced price. Yet Witten’s huge personality and competitive nature ensured his role was still considerable. He still logged the bulk of the snaps at tight end and pulled in just as many receptions as he did the season before his hiatus.
Witten took snaps from Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz that season, two players who were younger, cheaper and offered higher upside. Would the same thing happen if the Cowboys kept on Elliott?
It’s not just about money, or personality, or even an agreed upon role. It’s about opportunities as well, and whether an opportunity given to Elliott will come at the cost of an opportunity for a better player.
Story originally appeared on Cowboys Wire