ORLANDO, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 30: Kyle Kuzma #33 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the second … [+]
The Washington Wizards have a dilemma on their hands ahead of the Feb. 9 NBA trade deadline.
Winners of five straight games and six of their last seven, the Wizards have vaulted right back into playoff contention after a brutal monthlong stretch in which they lost 13 of 14 games. If they can maintain that momentum and continue digging out of their early-season tailspin, they’ll likely feel compelled to keep their roster together at the trade deadline rather than selling off parts to the highest bidder.
However, Kyle Kuzma’s impending date with free agency might complicate that plan. The Wizards can thank the NBA’s extension rules for that.
Kuzma is averaging a career-high 21.4 points on 46.5 percent shooting to go with 7.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.5 three-pointers per game. He’s earning $13 million this season and has a $13 million player option next season that he plans to decline so he can become an unrestricted free agent.
“Those are just business decisions,” Kuzma told reporters in mid-December.
The Wizards could sign Kuzma to an extension between now and June 30 if he declines that player option, but the NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement limits how much they’re allowed to offer him. The salary in the first year of his extension can be no more than 120 percent of his previous salary, which means his extension could start no higher than $15.6 million. They could offer him 8 percent annual raises from there, which would bring the total value of a four-year extension to $69.9 million.
Rival executives told Shams Charania of The Athletic in early December that Kuzma “is expected to approach in excess of $20 million to $25 million per year” on his next contract. Unless he suffers a career-threatening injury in the coming months, he would likely be selling himself short by taking the Wizards’ best possible extension offer.
That could leave the Wizards with a difficult decision ahead of the trade deadline.
“Here’s what can’t be true on Feb. 8, 2023: the Wizards don’t know what they’re going to do about Kyle Kuzma,” David Aldridge of The Athletic recently wrote. “That’s the day before the NBA trade deadline. And one of two things must be true by the end of that day: Kuzma has agreed to a long-term deal to stay in Washington, or the Wizards have a deal in place to move him .”
The Wizards aren’t in a position where they can afford to lose Kuzma for nothing in free agency. If they were a legitimate title contender, perhaps they’d go all-in on this season and let the chips fall where they may in July. But as a fringe play-in team, they’d be far better off trading Kuzma and recouping assets for him if they don’t believe they’ll be able to retain him this offseason.
That’s the sign of a flawed system, though. A team shouldn’t feel pressure to preemptively trade one of its core players because the league’s rules restrict it from paying him his market value on a contract extension.
The Wizards aren’t the only team who’ve been forced to confront thorny decisions because of the NBA’s current extension rules. Fresh off a run to last year’s NBA Finals, the Boston Celtics had to weigh whether to entertain trade offers for Jaylen Brown this past offseason for the same reason. The league’s extension rules make it far more lucrative for Brown to play out the remainder of his contract and become a free agent following the 2023-24 season.
This problem might only get worse in the coming years, too. The league is due to sign new national TV contracts ahead of the 2025-26 season, which could cause the salary cap to soar. Players who signed non-max extensions in recent years such as Jaren Jackson Jr., Mikal Bridges and Keldon Johnson may have no financial incentive to ink another extension rather than testing free agency if the current rules remain in place.
The NBA and National Basketball Players Association are currently negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement, which gives both sides a chance to address the problems with the extension rules. They have bigger fish to fry first—most notably the league’s reported push for an “upper spending limit” (a fancy term for a hard cap)—but leaving the extension rules as is will only invite further issues down the road.
What’s the potential solution? It could be as simple as allowing teams to offer as much money in an extension as they’re allowed to in free agency. In Kuzma’s case, the Wizards would be allowed to offer him up to 25 percent of the salary cap as the starting salary of his new contract with 8 percent annual raises from there.
While Kuzma isn’t likely to earn that much from any team in free agency, he and the Wizards could at least have good-faith negotiations to see whether they’d be able to reach a middle ground. If not, the Wizards would have far more clarity about their inability to retain him in free agency. That might help them feel less regret about moving him ahead of the trade deadline, even if it comes at the expense of their short-term success.
Instead, the Wizards will have to weigh whether it’s worth keeping Kuzma for a playoff run even if it means perhaps losing him for nothing as a free agent in July. They have only the NBA’s broken extension rules to blame for that dilemma.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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