Why you should bet the Mariners to win World Series as a long shot

It’s been 20 years since the Mariners last reached the postseason – the longest streak in all of North American professional sports. They’re one of six MLB teams that have never won the World Series, and they’re the only one never to even reach the Fall Classic.

All of that could change this season.

Sure, that may seem lofty for a franchise with fewer playoff appearances (4) than 100-loss seasons (5) in its 45-year history. But if you’re searching for a dark horse to bet in this year’s World Series market, look no further than Seattle (+3500), which has all the makings of a title contender with a long-shot price at BetMGM.

2022 World Series betting odds (BetMGM)

Los Angeles Dodgers	+325
Houston Astros	+400
New York Yankees	+450
New York Mets	+500
Atlanta Braves	+1200
Toronto Blue Jays	+1700
San Diego Padres	+1800
St. Louis Cardinals	+2500
Philadelphia Phillies	+3000
Milwaukee Brewers	+3500
Seattle Mariners	+3500
Chicago White Sox	+4000
Tampa Bay Rays	+4000
Cleveland Guardians	+5000
Minnesota Twins	+6600
Baltimore Orioles	+12500
San Francisco Giants	+20000
Boston Red Sox	+25000

Why you should bet the Mariners to win it all

Seattle was among the trendiest title bets entering the season after a 90-win campaign in 2021 that nearly netted this team’s first playoff berth in two decades. The Mariners were aggressive in the following months, signing AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a mega-deal and adding veteran pieces to a lineup that ranked among MLB’s worst a year ago.

Four months later, that hype has been realized – and the roster is even better than it was in April.

Luis Castillo, whom the team acquired at the trade deadline, has been well worth the gamble through four starts – owning a 3.16 ERA with three quality starts in four tries. He ranks sixth among qualified AL starters in strikeout rate (28.4%) since the deadline, while teammate Ray (34.6%) leads the league over that span.

That speaks to just how dangerous this rotation could be come October. Among AL starters with at least 100 innings pitched, the trio of Castillo, Ray, and Logan Gilbert all rank in the top 30 in fWAR – one of just four such trios in the league – and they’re one of five AL trios to all rank in the top 30 in SIERA, which is a solid indicator of future performance.

That’s to say nothing of Seattle’s bullpen, which leads MLB in ERA (2.35), FIP (3.18), and fWAR (3.3) over the last two months. There’s a chance this top-heavy rotation and elite bullpen look even better in the postseason with fringe starters Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales, and Matthew Boyd helping the staff in relief.

And then there’s the lineup, which is stocked full of productive veterans and upstart youngsters with a chance to pop in their first-ever postseason. Rookie Julio Rodriguez has been a revelation atop this order, ranking 15th in the AL in fWAR (3.5) and 16th in home runs (19) as of Tuesday. He’s one of five Mariners with at least two wins over replacement – ​​tied for second-most in the AL – and that doesn’t include recent All-Stars Jesse Winker, Mitch Haniger, Carlos Santana, or Adam Frazier.

Elite fielding is often an X-factor in the postseason, and Seattle has that covered, too. The Mariners own MLB’s best fielding percentage (.990) and are on pace to commit just 60 errors, which would be the third-best mark across a 162-game season in MLB history.

Can the Mariners win the World Series as a long shot?

As crazy as it may seem, there’s precedent for a long-shot winner in this market. Just within the last three years, the Braves and Nationals were both dealing as high as +5000 in the midst of their title-winning seasons. The 2015 Royals (+3300) were among five teams in the last 12 years to enter the season at +2500 or longer before winning it all.

Can these Mariners pull off a similar run? We’ve already seen this team rip off incredible stretches of baseball this season: its 14-game winning streak in July was the longest by any team this year and the most consecutive wins by a team entering the All-Star break in MLB history. They’re one of four teams to win at least 10 straight games entering the break – the other three all won the pennant, and two won the World Series.

Betting on Baseball?

Seattle entered Tuesday with an 89% chance of making the postseason and a 3.6% chance of winning it all, per Fangraphs. That bodes well for its price here – that title outlook translates to an expected price of around +2500, while all 10 playoff teams from a year ago entered the postseason dealing at +2000 or shorter.

The Mariners owned a 2.5-game lead for the final wild-card spot entering Tuesday, and they could benefit from a favorable path should they hold onto that final spot. If the season ended today, Seattle would face the winner of the AL Central, which could own a worse record than this group by that point. The winner of that series would more than likely face the Yankees, who have lost 15 of their last 21 games – including four of six to these very Mariners.

However the postseason field shakes out, there’s clear value on this team at a long-shot price, especially with a handful of Seattle’s key hitters coming back from injury. A bet on the M’s now holds a little risk should they falter down the stretch, but there’s immense upside on this group should they crash the postseason field for the first time in two decades. At this price, why not bet on history in the making?