Why the Vikings’ biggest need in the 2023 NFL Draft is still cornerback

Last week, Dane Brugler, The Athletic‘s esteemed NFL Draft analyst, released his second mock draft of the season. If you missed it, he projected that the Vikings would select Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks at pick No. 23.

We’ll talk specifically about Banks later on in this piece, but Brugler’s projection raises a broader conversation about Minnesota’s most important roster need.

Fortifying the interior of the offensive line would be an investment in all facets of the offense. Adding another dynamic pass-catching option behind Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson would enhance the possibilities in the passing game. Acquiring a presence in the middle of the defensive line would help the pass rush and against the run.

Arguments for each of those roster improvements make sense.

The long list of potential benefits of a talented young cornerback, however, might outshine them all.

Let’s consider this past season. By now you can probably recite these statistics: The Vikings ranked 31st in the NFL in total passing yards allowed. Meanwhile, Football Outsiders’ DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule, ranked Minnesota as the seventh worst pass defense.

These metrics provide context as to why the Vikings recently fired defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. But how are the numbers reflective of the team’s cornerback play?

There are several ways to answer this question. The first, citing PFF coverage metrics, is fairly basic but an illuminating place to start. Here are the number of times each Vikings cornerback was targeted and the quarterback’s passer rating on those targets:

For reference, the average NFL passer rating this season was 89.1, and Patrick Mahomes’ passer rating was 105.2. The point? When targeted, Cameron Dantzler, Chandon Sullivan, Akayleb Evans and Andrew Booth were jarringly susceptible.

Another way to evaluate the cornerbacks’ level of responsibility for the defense’s struggles is to think about the types of coverages the Vikings played in 2022. All season, Minnesota leaned heavily into what is commonly referred to as Cover 6. In layman’s terms, that means the defense has two players occupying a quarter of the field in coverage on one side and one player occupying half the field on the other side.

Here is an example:

No NFL team ran this coverage more than the Vikings (25.6 percent of their defensive snaps) in 2022. The only team that allowed more yards per play in this coverage than the Vikings was the Raiders.

Digging a bit deeper, the Vikings were vulnerable in all areas of the field in this coverage. They allowed 10.53 yards per play when teams threw the ball to the middle of the field against their Cover 6. And they allowed 10.78 yards per play when teams threw the ball outside of the numbers against their Cover 6.

Compound those facts with the reality that the Vikings had a better success rate in each of their other coverages, and you arrive at a logical question: Why, then, would the Vikings continue to play Cover 6? It feels fair to further challenge Donatell’s decision-making.

His stated goal was to limit explosive plays by the opposition. By playing Cover 6, at least one cornerback tends to have help over the top. On the other hand, when playing coverages with only one safety in the middle of the field, such as Cover 3, cornerbacks are left more on their own island.

What’s jarring is how susceptible the Vikings were against deep passes both types of coverages. Opponents completed 25 of 48 attempted passes of 15 yards or more in the air against the Vikings’ Cover 6. Meanwhile, when the Vikings played Cover 3, opponents completed 17 of 34 passes of 15 yards or more in the air.

Some of these defensive mistakes were the result of confusion. Others occurred because of lackluster technique or mismatches in athleticism. On most of these plays, it’s difficult to separate whether the issue was coaches failing to teach or players struggling to apply those teachings.

Whatever the case, here’s an example of those Cover 3 completions:

In the above example from Week 14, Lions wide receiver DJ Chark beat Dantzler on a double move. Lions quarterback Jared Goff hit him for a 48-yard touchdown.

.@JaredGoff16 dialing up another deep one!#MINvsDET | 📺 FOX | #ProBowlVote | @DJChark82 pic.twitter.com/d58UP6Dt3I

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 11, 2022

Here, in the Week 16 matchup against the Giants, Isaiah Hodgins crept past corner Patrick Peterson on the right sideline. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones hit him for a chunk gain.

On this play, from Week 18, Bears wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. sidestepped Peterson, who bit on the fake and held Jones. Although an illegal-contact penalty was called, quarterback Nathan Peterman still connected with Jones in stride.

These examples, paired with the struggles in Cover 6, highlight the Vikings’ season-long conundrum. One of the most logical ways to ensure the issue does not persist — beyond hiring a new defensive coordinator — is to bolster the cornerbacks room.

That is not going to be an easy task. As the roster stands, only Dantzler, Booth and Evans are under contract for 2023 at the position. None of the three has started consistently in the NFL, and each has injury concerns. From a free-agency perspective, Peterson and Duke Shelley are options, but their return will depend on available cap space and mutual interest.

This brings us to the draft and Brugler’s projection. Here’s how he described Banks: “A cover-and-clobber corner, Banks has rangy speed and ball skills. Several NFL teams have second-round grades on the Maryland corner, but others believe he can crack the first round.”

Banks, a 6-foot-2, 205-pounder, played man and zone coverage at Maryland and allowed only 26 receptions in 13 games, according to PFF. Whether he fits the bill or not, there is a good amount of depth at the cornerback position in this draft.

“We could see 10 cornerbacks drafted in the top 75 picks,” Brugler wrote earlier this week.

Other options up high may include Georgia’s Kelee Ringo, Stanford’s Kyu Blu Kelly and Utah’s Clark Phillips III. If the Vikings prefer to move their first-rounder for additional picks, they could take fliers on multiple cornerbacks later on.

How likely is that to fill the team’s most pressing need?

Just ask the Seahawks, who last year drafted defensive rookie of the year candidate Tariq Woolen in the fifth round.

(Top photo of Chandon Sullivan and Bears WR N’Keal Harry: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)