The 2022 MLB playoff field is officially set and there’s no shortage of star power, big name clubs or heartwarming stories across the bracket.
The Seattle Mariners are back in October after ending the longest playoff drought of any team not just in baseball, but in the NBA, NFL and NHL. And they did it on a must-see walk-off home run.
Philadelphia enters the playoffs after a 10-year absence as part of a National League East sending three elite teams to the postseason—including the defending champion Atlanta Braves.
Oh, and the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers are back again.
Between the perennial powerhouses and upstart darlings, this bracket could really play out anyway and it wouldn’t feel surprising. So let’s talk about why each team in the playoffs can win the World Series…and one reason why they won’t.
Philadelphia Phillies
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins and a lineup that packs a ton of power. Philadelphia’s team OPS is right up there among the best in baseball with the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays. They were built to mash home runs and they do just that. When you’ve got a team that hits for power—and can hit for power in clutch moments—you can win just about any game against anyone.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
A team ERA that ranks near the bottom third in the Majors and the highest WHIP of any playoff team except the St. Louis Cardinals. That’s just asking for trouble in the postseason, even if Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler remain nails at the top of the rotation.
San Diego Padres
AP Photo/Brandon Sloter
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because they paid so much money to get here, anything else would be a failure. Without Juan Soto, it’d be fair to say this team is ahead of schedule, but with the reincarnation of Ted Williams playing alongside Manny Machado, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove anchoring the rotation and Josh Hader’s potential in the bullpen, they are right on time.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
It’s impossible to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop and in the lineup. Nando is suspended until the middle of next year for PED use, but that’s only the start of San Diego’s issues this October. Because the Padres are locked into a Wild Card spot, the playoffs are going to be quite the uphill battle. Especially considering this has been a .500 team since the end of August.
Tampa Bay Rays
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because no team pushes their opponent to the brink again and again like the Rays can. Even if Tampa doesn’t provide the most intimidating playoff atmosphere, the Rays lineup can just wear you down with the likes of Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz and Harold Ramirez. Now they’ve added Vidal Brujan to the mix again, as well. Oh, and they have the nastiest starting pitcher in baseball. His name is Shane McClanahan. No team wants to face Tampa in the Wild Card round
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
Well, they haven’t proven they can get over the hump yet, have they? Despite three consecutive trips to the postseason heading into 2022, the Rays just haven’t been able to put it all together for a full October. The closest they came was a 4-2 World Series loss to the Dodgers in the (admittedly bizarre) 2020 pandemic season. Their other two Octobers ended in the ALDS.
Cleveland Guardians
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because they have the best closer in baseball. There’s no denying the Guardians are further ahead of schedule than any rebuilding club in baseball right now. Much of that is due to Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor, but what gets Cleveland through the postseason is the pure wizardry of Emmanuel Clase, his absurd sub-0.800 WHIP and 9+ strikeouts per nine. The Guardians have a 28-17 record in one-run games this year and if Clase is entering the ninth inning with the lead, the game is pretty much over.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
Winning a division as trash as the American League Central this year doesn’t really prove anything. Instead, let’s remember the Guardians went 3-4 against Houston, 1-5 against the Yankees and 1-6 against the Mariners. The likelihood of avoiding those clubs in October is as absurd as Clase’s pitching. Making the postseason at all in 2022 is an absolute win for Cleveland. It’s hard to expect much else.
Seattle Mariners
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because destiny. Do you really need another reason? The Mariners have been counted out for the last 20 years. They certainly weren’t expected to overtake the Angels as AL West darlings this year. They weren’t expected to do much of, well, anything. And here they are, with superstar rookie Julio Rodríguez and a supporting cast of Ty France, Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford and Eugenio Suarez surging into the postseason and taking down one of the most infamous streaks in American sports. If that isn’t a team of destiny, what is?
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
And yet. Destiny only took Seattle as far as the Wild Card, which means they have to face Toronto and Houston early on in the playoffs. Or, worse yet, a date with the Yankees in New York. Fate can be cruel like that.
St. Louis Cardinals
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright didn’t hear no bell. You really want to tell this trio they can’t win another World Series? Seriously? After everything they accomplished and the herculean effort Pujols pulled off to join the 700 club? Say it to their faces. And then tell it to Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Good luck with that.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
The NL Central has its American League counterpart to thank for making sure no one realized how bad this division was. With the exception of the (underachieving) Milwaukee Brewers, each club behind the Cards finished more than 13 games under .500. The only playoff team on the NL side St. Louis has a winning record against this year is San Diego.
Toronto Blue Jays
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because we have entered the prime era of Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah. Together with George Springer and Matt Chapman, the Blue Jays may have the most fearsome infield in baseball. Moving Yusei Kikuchi to the bullpen before October may end up paying more dividends than the Blue Jays could’ve hoped, but as long as Manoah and Gausman continue to lead the way up front, Canada’s team has a legit shot at the World Series for years to come
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
Only the Tampa Bay Rays have allowed more home runs from their bullpen than the Blue Jays when it comes to playoff teams. That’s a pretty troubling stat considering how much the long ball can flip momentum in the postseason—especially if Toronto finds itself needing a late-inning comeback to win a game.
New York Mets
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because they were arguably the best team in baseball for the first five months of the season even without Jacob deGrom available in the rotation. The Mets have so few holes in their lineup it’s amazing they don’t put up runs every inning. And we haven’t even talked about the trumpets yet. My god, the trumpets. New York has the most fearsome roster outside of any team except the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
Ok, let’s talk about this last month or so, when the Mets went from running away with the National League East to hanging on for dear life. Peaking at the right time absolutely means something in a season as long as baseball’s and the Mets may have missed their mark there. If Scherzer, deGrom and the rest of the big names can’t regain their dominance, this will be a quick exit for a team with a very tough path through October.
Atlanta Braves
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Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because they did it last year with a less talented roster. It’s true! Not having Ronald Acuna Jr. was a massive blow last season. Now Atlanta has their All-World centerfielder, the likely Rookie of the Year in Michael Harris and a rotation led by Max Fried, Kyle Wright and the emerging Spencer Strider. Not to mention Matt Olson has replaced Freddie Freeman at first base with arguably better production.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
No team has won back-to-back MLB titles since the Yankees’ 1998-2000 three-peat. The Braves might be better this year, but so few teams in baseball win two consecutive titles for a reason—it’s damn near impossible.
New York Yankees
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because Aaron Judge has carried this team all year long, why stop now? In his pursuit for the American League single-season home run record (and a contract north of $300 million), Judge has put The Bronx on his back again and again. There’s no way to avoid him without running into the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu or Anthony Rizzo. As Judge goes, so do the Yankees.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
The back end of this bullpen has been as shaky as any playoff contender’s. Clay Holmes and Aroldis Chapman have taken turns blowing saves and neither really look as intimidating as they had at earlier points in the season. New York is incredibly beatable, even if Judge is unavoidable.
Houston Astros
AP Photo/David J. Phillip
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because they have the best starting rotation in baseball led by the likely Cy Young-winner in Justin Verlander. Framber Valdez, Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy have been able to fly somewhat under the radar thanks to Verlander’s sheer brilliance this year, but there is no team in the playoffs who creates a worse starter-vs-batter matchup than Houston.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
For all it’s dominance this year, Houston somehow ended up on the wrong side of the AL bracket. Instead of getting to face the Guardians or Rays, the Astros are stuck dealing with either the Blue Jays or Mariners in the ALDS—both teams who are starved for a title, boast unreal playoff atmospheres and have a real hatred for Houston thanks to the cheating scandal. Road games are going to feel as intense as ever and that’s before considering a potential playoff rematch with the Yankees.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Rob Schumacher-Arizona Republic
Why They’ll Win The World Series
Because there are zero holes in their lineup. Not one. You want to pitch around Mookie Betts? Cool, enjoy Trea Turner. Not a fan of him, either? Have fun with Freddie Freeman or Max Muncy. Oh yeah, and there’s Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo in the bottom of the order. Good luck. The Dodgers can make even the most determined pitchers feel like they’re stuck in an endless cycle of facing All-Stars. And that’s usually because they are.
Why They Won’t Win The World Series
It always comes back to pitching in Los Angeles. Is Clayton Kershaw going to hold up in the postseason? Can Tony Gonsolin step up? And how will the ninth inning feel when Kenley Jansen isn’t there anymore to shut the door? The more the Dodgers can score early, the less they’ll have to answer those questions. But the questions aren’t going away anytime soon.
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