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Who’s the NBA MVP? Inside the crowded field in the award debate

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Kevin Durant is shooting 60.4 percent from the field in his past 14 games. Jayson Tatum is averaging 37.5 points in his past six games. Giannis Antetokounmpo has put up three 40-plus-point efforts in the past 10 days. Joel Embiid fell two points shy on Tuesday of his third game this season with at least 50 points. Luka Doncic’s 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists, in a miraculous comeback and overtime win against the Knicks, tied the record for the highest-scoring triple-double in NBA history.

This is a new golden age of NBA superstars, a pool of talent as wide and diverse and elite as the league has seen in decades. It has created a historically long list of championship contenders. And it could result in the deepest MVP race of all time.

Truthfully, there isn’t much competition — especially in the modern era.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) throws a pass as he is defended by Sacramento Kings guard Kevin Huerter (9) and forward Trey Lyles.
Two-time defending MVP Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets
AP

When Jokic won his second straight MVP award last season, his 65 percent share of first-place votes was the lowest any winner has had since 2008. No final tally since the controversial 2005 Steve Nash-Shaquille O’Neal vote — Nash led 65- 58 in first-place votes — has been close.

It has been 15 years since three players received double-digit first-place votes, even though last season’s three top finishers (Jokic, Embiid, Antetokounmpo) each had a strong claim to the prize. It has been 43 years since four players received double-digit first-place votes. Only twice in NBA history have at least five players earned first-place votes (1974-75, 2005-06).

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) celebrates during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Houston Rockets on Dec.  27, 2022, in Boston.
Jayson Tatum of the NBA-leading Boston Celtics
AP

A cocktail of groupthink, voter fatigue and narrative has contributed to years of anticlimactic award endings. Despite being less than halfway through this season, the next MVP appears to be facing unprecedented competition.

Doncic, 23, is averaging 33.6 points, 8.8 assists and 8.7 rebounds while shouldering more responsibility than any superstar in the league following Jalen Brunson’s departure to New York.

Jokic, 27, is having his most efficient season ever and could become the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double for a season (25.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 9.5 assists, with a career-best 61.8 field goal shooting percentage) while leading the Nuggets to the best record in the West.

Brooklyn Nets guard Ben Simmons (10) defends Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during an NBA game on Dec.  23, 2022.
Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks is guarded by the Brooklyn Nets’ Ben Simmons.
Corey Sipkin

Antetokounmpo, 28, is in the top five in the NBA in scoring and rebounding (31.7 points, 11.6 rebounds), and has led the Bucks to the second-best record in the East despite getting just seven games from the three-time All-Star Chris Middleton.

Embiid, 28, could lead the league in scoring again (33.7 points), and he is shooting a career-best 52.9 percent from the field while leading the 76ers to eight wins in their past nine games.

Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant (7) dribbles against the Atlanta Hawks on Dec.  28, 2022.
Brooklyn Nets superstar Kevin Durant
USA TODAY Sports

Tatum, 24, is also on pace to set personal-best shooting marks, and he’s averaging a career-best 31.1 points and 8.1 rebounds for the NBA’s best team.

And Durant, at age 34, is having what may be the best season of his Hall of Fame career, shooting a career-best 56.0 percent from the field while averaging 29.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists for a team that fired its coach, needed to integrate long-absent Ben Simmons and deal with Kyrie Irving’s antisemitic saga and suspension, yet has won 10 straight games and reasserted its place as a title contender. Remarkably, Durant’s 2014 MVP remains his only such honor.

Zion Williamson #1 of the New Orleans Pelicans drives to the basket against the Milwaukee Bucks on December 19, 2022.
Zion Williamson of the up-and-coming New Orleans Pelicans could still gate-crash the MVP race.
NBAE via Getty Images

This does not even account for Stephen Curry returning to complete one of his best seasons (30 points, 6.8 assists and 6.6 rebounds, shooting 50 percent from the field for the first time since his unanimous 2016 MVP season) and potentially leading the defending champs on a second-half surge. This also does not project continued growth from 23-year-old Ja Morant (27.1 points, 7.8 assists, 6.3 rebounds) or 22-year-old Zion Williamson (25.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 60.7 field-goal percentage after a career-high 43 points on Wednesday night), who each could lead their teams to the Western Conference’s top seed.

Best of luck to those with ballots.

Today’s back page

The back cover of the New York Post on Dec.  29, 2022
New York Post

Read more:

🏈 How the fire and ice of ‘passionate’ Brian Daboll has Giants on the cusp of playoffs

🏀 Nets slip past Hawks for 10th win in a row

⚾ The Carlos Correa issue could ‘creep up’ toward the end of the Mets deal

Atlanta’s core vs. Big Apple turnover

The Mets have several reasons for a win-now mandate. The long-suffering fanbase has gone nearly four decades without a championship, mostly spent in the shadow of a neighbor that doubles as the most successful franchise in American sports. They are coming off the second-best regular season in team history (101 wins), yet haven’t won a playoff series since 2015. They have an owner who is footing the bill for the biggest payroll in MLB history — an estimated $489,832 million , including luxury tax, if Carlos Correa’s signing is finalized — and have two former Cy Young winners who are in the final chapters of their career with Justin Verlander turning 40 in February and Max Scherzer turning 39 next season.

The Mets are built to win now, but also need to win now because the Braves — and reigning NL champion Phillies, who recently signed Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract — continue to make it harder for the Mets to rule the NL East in the future.

The Braves, who have won five straight division titles and the 2021 World Series, have done a better job than any team in the majors of keeping their talent home, via early contract extensions below market value. On Tuesday, the Braves struck again, signing new catcher Sean Murphy to a six-year, $73 million contract. Atlanta has kept much of its core under team control for the foreseeable future, using the same formula to lock up Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider.

The Atlanta Braves added Sean Murphy (inset) to a core of players signed to long-term contracts that also includes Austin Riley and Matt Olson.
It was business as usual for the Braves, who added new catcher Sean Murphy (inset) to their core of players signed to long-term contracts that also includes Austin Riley and Matt Olson.
Getty Images (2)

The Mets currently have only five players signed through 2025 (Francisco Lindor, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga, Starling Marte) with Justin Verlander on a vesting option. After that season, Marte’s deal will have expired and Senga will have the option to opt out of his deal if he throws 400 total innings over the next three seasons. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil can both become free agents after the 2024 season, giving Cohen enough time to prevent both homegrown All-Stars from hitting the open market.

Cohen will fill the gaps and keep the Mets competitive by spending the GDP of a small nation each season, but free-agent classes don’t offer stars every year and no city offers greater pressure for new players than New York.

Plus, cohesion can’t be purchased.

These guys again

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) calls a play against the Arizona Cardinals.
Tom Brady can clinch a 20th career trip to the playoffs by leading the mediocre Bucs to a win on Sunday.
AP

Tom Brady has had a winning record every season he’s been a starter. Bill Belichick’s suffered only one losing season since 2008. So has Aaron Rodgers.

The teams of three of the most important figures in football are below .500 with two weeks remaining in the regular season, yet each legend is still very capable of leading his team to the playoffs.

Although the Buccaneers look far worse than their 7-8 record — their past two wins have come via double-digit fourth-quarter comebacks against sub-.500 squads and they rank 24th in the league in scoring margin (-2.5) — the putrid NFC South has given them a chance to become the sixth team with a losing record to reach the NFL postseason. A Bucs win on Sunday against the Panthers would clinch the division, sending Brady to the playoffs for a record-extending 20th time and giving the Bucs an undeserved home playoff game. A loss would put the Panthers (6-9) in charge of their fate and in line to reach the postseason with a win in Week 18 at New Orleans.

Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass against the Miami Dolphins on December 25, 2022.
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have a losing record … and a realistic path to the postseason.
Getty Images

The Patriots (7-8) also remain in control of their season despite losing four of their past five games, most recently suffering back-to-back devastating losses on an illogical game-ending lateral against the Raiders and a last-minute fumble against the Bengals. If New England wins Sunday against the Dolphins (8-7) — who will be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — and Week 18 in Buffalo — the Bills could have home-field advantage secured — Belichick can avoid the embarrassment of missing the postseason in two of three years since letting Brady leave town.

The Packers (7-8), written off after enduring a five-game losing streak and falling to 3-6, have won three consecutive games to slide into position to reach the postseason with wins as home favorites against the Vikings and Lions, in addition to one Washington loss versus the Browns or Cowboys.

Brady. Belichick. Rodgers. Their worst may still be good enough.

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