Major League Baseball’s offseason party is still humming. It’s just that the band has gone home, the spread is obliterated and it might take some scouring to find a good drink.
November and December saw $2.15 billion committed to just 10 players, but there will be no more nine-figure contracts — not with the top 14 players and 22 of the top 25 all off the board following Dansby Swanson’s $177 million agreement with the Chicago Cubs. The heavy lifting is done, but a crucial component of roster building continues as teams aim to place the right bets on high-leverage relievers and back-end starting pitchers.
After all the new jerseys have been draped on the shoulders of $300 million men, who came out ahead? Who can make up the gap with what’s left? And who seems left behind? A division-by-division look in the wake of an epic spending spree:
BIG DEAL:The Mets’ five biggest contracts right now from Francisco Lindor to Brandon Nimmo
40-YEAR-OLD SHORTSTOP:How MLB’s new math drives lengthy megadeals for $300 million men
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NL East: Phil it up
Gotta start where the action is, right? And what a strange dynamic — the Mets and Braves each won 101 games in 2022 yet it feels like they’ve been chasing the Phillies, who parlayed an 87-win, expanded-playoff berth into a World Series appearance.
Perhaps there’s some truth to that sentiment.
As a billion-dollar buildup kicked off with Bryce Harper in 2019 and culminated in an NL pennant three years later, the Phillies were interesting but also had obvious holes. Now, they are potent and seemingly complete. Their $300 million addition of Trea Turner and $72 million swiping of Taijuan Walker from the Mets creates a punishing 1-9 lineup and a legitimate four-man rotation.
Good thing, as they’ll be looking up at baseball’s first $350 million payroll. Yet for all the Mets’ machinations, you wonder: Are they any better?
Owner Steve Cohen’s check-scribbling has made great theater, but so much of it has been lateral. Brandon Nimmo is back — but now sporting a $162 million contract. Justin Verlander joins Max Scherzer as a $43.3 million man — but only to make up for Jacob deGrom’s departure. Kodai Senga’s $75 million addition is nice — but only partially makes up for Walker and Chris Bassitt’s defections.
In Atlanta, the steady Swanson is gone and the Braves will be relying on a rookie shortstop (Vaughn Grissom) while hoping a reigning Rookie of the Year (Michael Harris II) avoids a sophomore slump. The trade for catcher Sean Murphy was nice but not altogether necessary.
NL Central: Out of hibernation?
Swanson’s signing was crucial for both production and symbolic reasons in Chicago. Not only does Swanson become the Cubs’ best player, his arrival also signals, finally, a significant pivot towards contention. The addition of starter Jameson Taillon and imminent retention of Drew Smyly makes them, at worst, dark horse picks to win the division after winning just 74 games last year.
And that’s because this is, at best, a three-team race. The Cardinals stole slugging catcher Willson Contreras from Chicago but trotted out a rotation that’s capable at best, questionable at worst. Milwaukee continues to attrit and now seems stuck between an old guard that perennially contended and an incoming wave of prospects; its big add so far is Contreras’ younger brother, William, an All-Star catcher/DH last season.
NL West: Fireworks vs. feasting
This division will be won under the hood, by key bullpen pieces, backend starters and overall depth. But goodness, it’s awfully hard not to be wowed by the shiny new pieces on the showroom floor.
As the perennial World Series-contending Dodgers bid farewell to Turners Trea and Justin, they suddenly face a shortstop battle on two fronts. To the south: The great Xander Bogaerts, guaranteed $280 million and, perhaps most significantly, nudging Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres outfield for good.
To the north: Ultimate nemesis Carlos Correa, given a record $350 million deal and now the centerpiece of the hated Giants, even as bitter Dodgers fans most closely identify him in the center of an Astros sign-stealing scandal that cluttered the Dodgers’ path in the 2017 World Series.
What’s the highest-revenue team in baseball to do? Sign Jason Heyward, Shelby Miller and JD Martinez, apparently. And go get ’em, Gavin Lux!
Oh, the Dodgers re-upped franchise icon Clayton Kershaw, but also put up zero resistance as Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and Tommy Kahnle bailed from the pitching staff. They’ll be fine, but the worry is whether they’ve been surpassed.
That brings us back under the hood, and whether the Padres can count on Yu Darvish, at 37, to continue pitching at an All-Star level, on Blake Snell’s continued reemergence and the hope that Josh Hader can right himself. That the Giants’ mix-and-match pitching staff can hold up despite losing Carlos Rodon and not adding a true horse, and that any leftover magic from their platoon-mad lineup can coalesce around Correa.
We don’t yet know what it will be, but the difference-making move is probably yet to come.
AL East: Not too early to judge
Of the five AL wild-card spots available the past two seasons, this division has claimed four of them. And it’s not getting easier.
Not when Aaron Judge stays in the division for $40 million a year, a record for a position player, and the Yankees add Rodon for $162 million. Not when the Blue Jays add Bassitt to a deep rotation and commit, for the first time, to exceed the luxury tax threshold. And not when the Rays extended the largest contract in their history — OK, it’s just $40 million — to add Zach Eflin and create a potential rotation of death.
What’s a team on the come-up to do? If you’re the Orioles, who won a startling 83 games last year, it’s apparently not much — adding back-end starter Kyle Gibson ($10 million) and buying low on super utility guy Adam Frazier ($8 million), apparently waiting for more blue-chip kids to arrive and hoping the storm may soon pass.
Not gonna happen anytime soon, even as Bogaerts left the division and the Red Sox — a last-place club with 78 wins a year ago — are opting for quantity and not top-shelf quality to replace his production. That, too, is probably not enough and with fratricide diminished next season — a balanced schedule means just 14, not 19 intra-division games — it will take more than 100 wins to claim this title.
For now, it remains the Yankees’ to lose.
AL Central: Check the bargain bin
Consider this: The entire division has spent $179.5 million on seven free agents. That’s barely half the $350 million Correa will command after leaving the Twins for the Giants.
No, when the marquee addition is left fielder Andrew Benintendi (five years, $75 million, White Sox), the headlines will largely bypass the Central, although in fairness, the Twins did make a $285 million offer to retain Correa.
With a quintet of very budget-conscious clubs, trade activity may be highest and most important here as teams aim for payroll neutrality by dealing from areas of strength to shore up glaring weaknesses. For now, the incumbent Guardians are in a strong position, adding slugging first baseman Josh Bell on a $33 million deal while losing just light-hitting catcher Austin Hedges from a 92-win team.
The White Sox have chosen not to flex their bigger-market financial might, and Benintendi’s addition is a virtual wash with the loss of Jose Abreu. Save for perhaps the Royals, who have yet to lose or add from their 2022 squad, this is truly anyone’s division. An uptick in performance from returning players or a relatively big signing (who couldn’t use Nate Eovaldi, Seth Lugo or Corey Kluber?) could make all the difference.
In short, check back on Valentine’s Day.
AL West: A lot of money to finish third
Headwinds, be damned.
It’s an admirable corporate strategy, really, this thought of spending money to make money (or win games), even as the competition around you only intensifies. And so among the World Series champion Astros, 90-win Mariners and wild-spending Rangers, somebody will finish third, perhaps fourth.
That’s the bitter reality in Arlington, where the Rangers guaranteed deGrom $185 million one year after committing a half-billion dollars to middle infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. That’s probably not enough to win the Texas state championship, let alone a division title.
Such is life when the Astros can lose Verlander and still roll five to seven deep in the rotation, add Abreu, retain Michael Brantley and likely exceed 100 wins again. And when the Mariners can add Teoscar Hernandez’s thump to the lineup while getting a full season out of ace Luis Castillo.
Lest we forget, the Angels are still giving it the ol’ college try and will run it back, one more time, with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani while snagging perhaps the greatest bargain this winter — the $39 million signing of lefty Tyler Anderson.
So good luck, Rangers. Relevance can be bought; competing will be another tale entirely.
