Some years, the NFL Draft drops a historic deluge of quarterback talent that transforms the league for a generation to come. Think of 1984 with Dan Marino, John Elway and Jim Kelly. Or 2004 with Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.
This season is not one of those years.
Yes, it’s extremely early to pass judgment, but that’s exactly what high-level decision makers across the NFL told us when only one passer — Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, drafted 20th overall — was selected among the first 73 picks. In a league that values quarterback play above everything else, the vast majority of general managers and coaches decided, “You know what? We’re good.”
This leaves the NFL in a curious position; This will likely be the first year since 2007 where there isn’t a single rookie quarterback starter in Week 1.
That’s obviously not where slingers like Pickett, Desmond Ridder and Malik Willis want to be. That 2007 draft class was headlined by JaMarcus Russell and featured non-stars Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck and Drew Stanton in the first two rounds. That cohort’s lack of opening weekend readiness proved pretty damn prescient about the rest of its impact on the league.
This season’s quarterbacks may similarly stink, but only time will tell whether their draft status was predictive of their NFL careers. We’ve already established that we probably won’t see these guys in Week 1 except for mop-up duty or gadget plays if needed. So when can we expect each of the four quarterbacks drafted in the top 100 picks to crack their respective starting lineups?
Let’s make some predictions:
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 8 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles
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The Steelers have a brutal schedule to break in a rookie quarterback. With the exception of the Jets and, thanks to 11 games without Deshaun Watson, the Browns, every team they face before Week 13 has a legitimate case as a 2022 playoff team.
The safe (ish) landing spot of a stretch against the JC Jackson-less Patriots, Watson-less Browns and the New York Jets (Weeks 2-4) may be too early to throw Pickett into the fire. Instead the outcome of the team’s Week 7 game against the Dolphins could be the deciding factor on when Pickett joins the starting lineup.
Facing Miami in prime time could be an early playoff eliminator. If Pittsburgh walks out of Coral Gables at 3-4 or worse, it could spell the end of the Trubisky experiment and lead to Pickett’s promotion. He’d have a relatively soft matchup the following week against the Eagles and their 25th-ranked passing defense. That group will be better than it was last season, but should still be more vulnerable than some of the other secondaries the Steelers will see.
Pickett could either be the spark the team needs to extend its playoff streak to three or a signal Pittsburgh is ready to kick off its rebuild. We’ll have a better idea which way Mike Tomlin is leaning by Week 8.
If not then, maybe…: Week 13 vs. the Atlanta Falcons. AJ Terrell is great. The rest of the Falcons contributed to the league’s 29th-ranked passing defense and did not improve noticeably this offseason. If there’s any time for a hype-building Pickett start, it’s this.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 vs. the Chicago Bears
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The Falcons have nothing to lose in a rebuilding in 2022. Their salary cap is tied up with $56 million of commitments to Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, neither of whom will play for the team this fall.
Atlanta has a handful of fun young pieces, a veteran quarterback looking to reclaim his status as a starter (Marcus Mariota), and a schedule befitting a team coming off a third-place finish in its division. The Falcons, as glitchy as their roster may be, could hang around the margins of a weak NFC playoff race thanks to early games against the Seahawks, Panthers and Watson-less Browns.
Of course, this could simply result in a 3-7 record after a season sweep at the hands of the NFC South’s other bottom dweller Carolina. In that case, it’d be Ridder time. He’d add a little extra speed to the dual threat offense Mariota imparts and, in a best case scenario for Atlanta, use the final seven games of the season to build a reliable relationship with Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
If not then, maybe…: Week 8 vs. the Panthers. Ridder gets to start at home and face a secondary with questions left to be answered. It’s not ideal — and it’s possible head coach Arthur Smith sits him the entire season as Mariota plays pinata behind center — but in terms of runway there may not be a clearer takeoff point for a young quarterback than a five game span with the Bears, Commanders , and Panthers (twice) all on the schedule.
Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans: Week 18 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
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Willis is cooking this preseason, which doesn’t really matter but is still fun to watch.
While his runs were electric, they also got him pulled from the field since Mike Vrabel wanted him to focus more on his passing game. That’s an insight into what kind of season it’ll be for the rookie quarterback. The Titans are going to take the year in hopes of dulling his instincts to run away from static in the pocket and instead use his cannon arm to step up and make big throws downfield.
Between that need for refinement and Ryan Tannehill’s somewhat-entrenched place as a starter — he’s enjoyed a revival in Nashville but is coming off his worst season there and is 34 years old — it’s unlikely we’ll see Willis in a meaningful game this season. But Week 18 may not be a meaningful game. It could be a throwaway for a Titans team already qualified for the playoffs and out of the race for the top seed.
It’s not uncommon for young passers to find the field in the final game of a decided season. Jordan Love did it for the Packers last year. Patrick Mahomes took over for Alex Smith in 2017. Willis could do the same this winter, giving Titans executives a possible glimpse into their future in the process.
If not then, maybe…: Week 14 vs. the Jaguars. Let’s chart disaster for the Titans. The defense gets hit by injuries, Derrick Henry finally shows the wear and tear of 1,100 carries the past four seasons and Tannehill fails to return to form behind a rebuilt receiving corps. A four-game losing streak at midseason drops Tennessee to 4-8 on the season and the playoffs are a pipe dream.
But Willis has been generating buzz in practice and Tannehill is shrugging off lingering injuries accumulated over 12 games. So here comes the rookie, earning a possible five-game audition so the Titans’ decision makers can chart a course into the future. Is it likely? Nope! But a team’s fortunes can turn on a dime in the NFL and Tennessee could find itself in a no-lose situation late in a losing season.
Matt Corral, Carolina Panthers: n/a
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Corral is a long-term project. The two quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart are short-term solutions.
That left the Ole Miss product as QB3 behind Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, each of whom are playing on expiring contracts this fall, even before he suffered a preseason foot injury that could keep him off the practice field all season. Even if Corral recovered quickly and both those guys get hurt, the rookie could have his role supplanted by PJ Walker, who may not make the team’s active roster but could be a practice squad call-up thanks to his familiarity with Matt Rhule’s offense (though not his ability to execute it. He has a 2:8 touchdown:interception ratio in two seasons with Carolina).
Getting passed over for an XFL legend on the practice squad would be tough for Corral, but it’s fair to have concerns about the rookie’s 2022 after his preseason debut ended with just one completion in nine attempts and his second game ended with a significant injury. There’s no rush to push him to QB1 status. He’ll be given a long leash when it comes to development, especially since Rhule needs to win games this season in order to save his job.
If not then, maybe…: Week 14 vs. the Seattle Seahawks. Another hypothetical: Baker Mayfield was not the answer. Sam Darnold continued to be Sam Darnold. Corral has healed with John Cena-like efficiency and is cleared for game action.
The Panthers are 2-10 and have fired Rhule heading into their bye week. That gives interim head coach Ben McAdoo (!) a brief opportunity to show he deserves another full-time HC gig. And to wash away the sins of his Giants’ tenure, he’s gotta turn Corral into something useful by the end of the regular season.
I mean, I’d watch.
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