Aaron Judge had one of the best seasons in pinstripes or otherwise, so one would think the Yankees will do everything they can to lock him down this offseason.
However, with both sides not coming to an agreement before Judge’s self-imposed Opening Day deadline and the fallout from that — as well as other teams like the Giants and Dodgers looking to get him out of the Bronx — there’s no guarantee the new AL home run king won’t take his talents elsewhere.
So what happens if he doesn’t come back? It’s a scary thought, but one that Hal Steinbrenner and, presumably, Brian Cashman (if he’s still around) have already thought about.
If the Yankees don’t meet Judge’s demands, or if he just decides he wants to go, can New York soften the blow of his leaving? There are a few ways, but it won’t be easy.
Trade for Ohtani
First things first: There is no player who can fill the void Judge would leave if he moved on.
Not just from a production standpoint on the field, but his name, recognition and goodwill with the fans cannot be duplicated especially after the record-breaking season he had. With that said, the Yankees should try to replace him with a name that’s just as big — or someone they may think is bigger. And that player is Shohei Ohtani.
Not only does he bring 30-plus home runs, 100-plus RBI potential to the Yankees lineup, but adding him to the rotation would make him a dual-threat for this team.
If Judge is the most recognizable name in baseball in the US, Ohtani is the biggest name in the world, and would generate plenty of buzz for the organization. Think Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka levels of notoriety times 100.
Getting Ohtani from the Angels, however, will take a lot — perhaps more than many Yankees fans will want to part with. The Angels will ask for the organization’s top prospects, but with just one year left on his contract it won’t be as high a price as when the team checked in before this season’s trade deadline.
The Yankees will also have to sign Ohtani to a massive extension to make sure he stays in pinstripes for the majority of his career. It’ll probably cost them at least $50 million a year over 8-10 years to get that done.
If the Yankees want to soften the blow from losing Judge, bringing in this generation’s Babe Ruth only makes sense.
Break the bank in free agency
The days of the Yankees being the biggest spenders in free agency are seemingly gone. While they still bolster a roster that’s paid well over $200 million, they have let other teams like the Dodgers and Mets outspend them and grab premium free agents.
If Judge goes, and the Yankees can’t pull off a trade for Ohtani, they’ll have to show their fanbase they are willing to spend more than they have in recent years.
There are four high-caliber shortstops available, and the Yankees are at a crossroads as to which direction to go with that position. They can go young and use their prospects — will go into that later — or go out and sign either Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson.
Depending on who they go after, the cost for one of these shortstops could go from about $27 million a year to $35 million.
They can also sign Willson Contreras as their new catcher, which they should try to do whether or not they bring in Judge, and he’ll likely cost anywhere from $20-23 million. But the infield will really depend on whether they re-sign Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo will likely opt out of his deal and will probably get around $18-20 million on the open market.
There’s a lot of moving parts, as you can tell, but with Judge off the table, the Yankees front office may have to get creative on who they bring in and how they spend their money.
If they re-sign Rizzo, the infield can consist of DJ LeMahieuRizzo, one of the shortstops, Josh Donaldson — yes, his contract is too large to move — and Contreras. That’s about $65-78 million in spending.
Without Rizzo, the infield can have DJ at first, one of the free-agent shortstops at short, and use Oswald Peraza full time or stick with Isiah Kiner-Falefa to start the season until they feel Anthony Volpe is ready. Donaldson and Contreras will start at third and catcher, respectively.
This will cost about $47-58 million, leaving room to address the outfield, which will need some work.
Harrison Bader will man center field, but the Yankees will have to try to grab one of the free-agent outfielders in an admittedly shallow pool of choices in this market. They can bring back Andrew Benintendi or add Brandon Nimmo.
The Yankees obviously like Benintendi and what he brings, and it can be argued that he was the leadoff hitter the team was missing in the playoffs, so he seems destined to return.
They can also now use Gleyber Torres — who is in his third year of arbitration — as a trade piece to address a need in their rotation/bullpen who has a salary-friendly contract.
Usher in youth movement
This is the option that is the least likely as the Yankees simply don’t rebuild. But we can look at the 2016-17 seasons as how it could work.
When the Yankees were struggling to compete, they traded high-leverage bullpen arms like Aroldis Chapman as a rental to pick up key prospects who would eventually become key cogs for the Baby Bombers. The Yankees hated JudgeGary SanchezTorres and Luis Severinomixed with key vets, to overachieve and make it all the way to the ALCS where they would lose to the Astros in seven games.
With Judge gone, the Yankees could go ahead and just use the young talent who already had a taste of the show in 2022 and bring up their prospects on the cusp.
Oswaldo Cabrera has become very comfortable in the outfield, and could fill either left or right field while Peraza can shift to second base. Volpe can start the year at shortstop or be called up soon after the season starts.
With their friendly contracts, the Yankees can re-sign Rizzo and Benintendi as their big free-agent signings.
They can still go ahead and trade pieces like Torres and let veterans like Donaldson and LeMahieu bounce between playing the field and come off the bench while they continue to use Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino at catcher.
They can also extend Severino and give Domingo German a bigger role in the rotation to go alongside Gerrit Cole, Frankie Montas and Nestor Cortesand see what happens.
Again, this probably isn’t the most ideal scenario, but without Judge and if the organization isn’t willing to spend on free agents, they may as well use the young players they clearly covet and see what they can do.