Just when it seemed like there might be a bit of a lull following the end of the Winter Meetings, the Mets said “hold my beer,” agreeing to terms with Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year deal worth $162 million.
For good measure, the Mets agreed with setup man David Robertson on a one-year deal worth $10 million mere minutes after coming to terms with Nimmo.
For those who were still uncertain as to whether owner Steve Cohen was going to go all-in on the 2023 Mets, he answered the question emphatically on Thursday night, bringing the payroll to roughly $328 million.
That number is well past the top luxury tax threshold of $293 million. But with the Mets in a unique position to soar way beyond the top threshold in 2023, the front office and Cohen are doing what they have to — and should — be doing.
Yes, the spending from the Mets right now is wild. And there is almost certainly more to come this offseason with New York expected to add more high-priced free agents while waiting for an influx of impact prospects who will start making their presence felt this season.
The arrival of those prospects, combined with lots of money coming off the books after 2023, should allow the payroll to drop in 2024 and 2025.
As we look towards next season and beyond, here are the ripple effects of the Nimmo signing…
Signing Japanese ace Kodai Senga makes even more sense now
Before the Mets signed Nimmo, I argued that if they missed out on him that they would’ve had to seriously consider adding two impact players to the offense.
Now that Nimmo is back, it should make the Mets even more comfortable inking Senga instead of focusing on adding more offense from outside the organization.
That’s because filling the hole that would’ve been left by Nimmo in the lineup and in center field — especially had they done it with light-hitting Kevin Kiermaier — will no longer be necessary.
Additionally, with the outfield now full, a reunion with Michael Conforto no longer makes much sense.
The same can be said for signing DH JD Martinezthough it certainly wouldn’t hurt — especially if the Mets aren’t ready to give serious burn to Francisco Alvarez and/or Brett Baty from the outset in 2023.
But if the Mets are ready to insert Alvarez as the starting catcher (they should be) or use Baty as part of a platoon with Eduardo Escobar at third base (they may be), their inclusion as a key part of the offense — coupled with the return of Nimmo — would have the Mets in very good shape offensively.
As far as Senga, his agent said earlier this week that there are deals for five and six years on the table for him. While five or six years seems a bit long, it could serve the purpose of helping to keep Senga’s average annual value down — and that would help for luxury tax purposes.
Senga wants to play for an analytically driven team that is ready to win now and plays in a big market. The Mets fit all of those boxes and, per SNY’s Andy Martino, want Senga “badly” even after signing Nimmo. So it shouldn’t be a surprise if they get it done.
Before re-signing Nimmo, Mets GM Billy Eppler said that the team would be willing to slide Marte back to center from right field.
That would not have been ideal.
Marte, who is entering his age-34 season, played just five innings in center last season. And the last time Marte played center regularly — in 2021 with the Oakland Athletics — he was worth -4 Defensive Runs Saved in 119 games.
Could Marte have played an adequate center field in 2023? Perhaps. But the far better scenario was keeping Marte in right and bringing Nimmo back to play centre. And the Mets knew it.
Had Nimmo left, the options to replace him (if the Mets didn’t go with Marte), would’ve left a lot to be desired.
We mentioned Kiermaier above. And Cody Bellinger is off the board, having signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs. So, again, Marte in right and Nimmo in center was the way to go.
Trades could be coming
If the Mets sign Senga — let’s assume he gets a deal for about $16 million annually — their payroll will rise to roughly $344 million.
If the Mets add Senga and another solid reliever, their payroll would probably be just north of $350 million.
Could the Mets easily go into this season with a payroll that high? Yes. Would it matter much to Cohen to pay the tax on the excesses above $293 million? Probably not. But it would still make sense to explore trades that could get that number down.
One way to clear salary (if the Mets land Senga) would be to dangle a right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrascowho is set to earn $14 million in 2023 and would likely be able to net something good in return.
Having Carrasco as the potential No. 5 in the rotation would be great. But if the Mets think they can get similar production (and a similar amount of innings) from David Peterson or Taylor Megilldealing Carrasco could make sense.
The Mets could also try to deal James McCann and shed at least some of the salary owed to him over the next two seasons ($12 million in both 2023 and 2024). And even if New York has to eat a large chunk of that, it would be worthwhile to move McCann — especially if the plan is for Alvarez to be the Opening Day catcher.
Another player the Mets could (and should) look to trade is Darin Ruf. He will make just $3 million in 2023, so it wouldn’t provide much salary relief. But it would be something. And it would also pave the way to carry Mark Vientos on the bench.