In this mailbag: Virginia Zakas explains why we likely won’t see Ken Walker in Week 14, offers rest-of-season expectations for long-sidelined tight ends Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller, and much more!
Inside Injuries was founded by an orthopedic radiologist, Dr. Anand Lalaji (aka Dr. A), who contributes to all of the injury writeups. Dr. A team of doctors and data scientists put together to create an algorithm to evaluate the impact that injuries have on a player. This algorithm powers all of Inside Injuries’ analysis and determines each player’s Injury Risk, Health Performance Factor (the level a player is expected to perform at if they return too soon, for example) and Optimal Recovery Time. This information is based on years of medical experience and historical injury research and has proven to be incredibly accurate in determining how injuries will impact a player’s performance and risk of future injuries.
What’s going on with Ken Walker? — Blake L.
Ken Walker III injured his ankle on Sunday, but this wasn’t your standard ankle sprain. A majority of ankle injuries involve stretching or tearing the ligaments in the ankle, aka a sprain. Walker “jammed” his ankle, causing a strain. A strain is different as it involves damage to a tendon (which connects muscle to bone) or muscle in the joint.
Walker did not practice Wednesday and is very questionable for Week 14. According to the Inside Injuries algorithm, he should not play this weekend as his Injury Risk is very High (27%). His HPF is Below Average, so if he is active the ankle injury would affect his performance. It would also leave him more susceptible to an ankle sprain or other related injury.
It looks like Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller might come back Week 15. Any worries about them once they are back? — Gustavo G.
Goedert suffered a significant left shoulder injury in Week 10 when he was grabbed by the face mask and landed on by multiple defenders with his arm in a vulnerable position. Scans showed a fracture, and he was subsequently placed on IR. It was likely an avulsion fracture, which means a small piece of bone that is attached to a tendon or ligament breaks off. It’s less serious than most other types of fractures. Goedert is eligible to return from IR in Week 15. He has been seen working off the side at practice and has a shot at playing next weekend. Realistically, he won’t be 100%, as this fracture could take 6-8 weeks to fully heal. Goedert has been out of a sling for over a week, which means he can progress in his rehabilitation. The tight end position is such a mess that Goedert will be able to start whenever he is activated, even though he won’t be fully recovered.
Waller is also eligible to return from IR next week, but his outlook is much less promising than Goedert. Waller hasn’t played since Week 4 due to the hamstring injury. He was getting close to a return last month but aggravated it, causing him to land on IR. Hamstring strains can be pesky injuries, especially for a big guy like Waller. His was at least a grade 2 strain, and each time it is aggravated it is likely to get worse. Waller isn’t going to be a reliable fantasy option at all this season and remains a very high injury risk.
What is Trevor Lawrence’s injury status? He seems to have escaped serious injury, but details are vague, and it seems like he could miss some time. — John M.
I was shocked that Lawrence was able to return and finish the game after watching the play. His leg was trapped and twisted awkwardly as he was taken down. The mechanism of injury often leads to a knee sprain (MCL, ACL) and/or a high ankle sprain. Now his injury is being reported as a toe. The big toe was likely trapped and bent downward as his leg was twisted and the foot caught under him, damaging the ligament at the base of the big toe. Turf toe is a possibility here.
Now that the adrenaline has worn off and swelling is setting in, Lawrence is going to be in more pain. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, and he should be considered questionable for Week 14. While possible to play through, toe injuries can be a challenge because it’s tough to push off. This is to his lead leg, which is actually better than if it was to his right as there isn’t as much weight transferred through the front of the left foot when throwing a pass. It will limit his running ability and general mobility though. Lawrence comes with an Elevated Injury Risk and a Below Average HPF.
Can I count on Lamar Jackson in Weeks 16-17? — Dustin N.
Jackson is likely to miss several weeks after injuring his left knee. His bent knee was driven into the ground as he was sacked from behind, causing a PCL sprain. The PCL (posterior cruciate ligament) runs along the back of the knee just behind the ACL and is one of the four knee ligaments important for stability. This one prevents the tibia from moving too far backward in relation to the thighbone.
Right now Jackson’s expected recovery time is 1-3 weeks. While it’s possible he plays in Week 16, he won’t be anywhere near 100% if he does. The Inside Injuries algorithm classifies this as a grade 2 (moderate) sprain, and it will take 4-6 weeks to fully heal. Jackson can try to play sooner and may even wear a brace for extra support. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens take a fairly cautious approach with Jackson, which means it’s very possible we won’t see him again until the final week or two of the season.
Do you still have the same concern for Ja’Marr Chase after watching him play for a game? – Ben G.
Chase returned in Week 13 and was quickly back as one of Joe Burrow’s favorite targets. He had seven receptions for 97 yards. Most importantly, he avoided an aggravation. According to our algorithm, he remains a High Injury Risk (25%) with a Below Average HPF. These numbers are improving as he gets closer to his Optimal Recovery Time. Expect him to steadily improve over the next few weeks, but realistically his hip isn’t fully healed yet.
There has been speculation that the new ankle injury Ryan Tannehill suffered last week is a mild high ankle sprain. Is the mild variety relatively easy to play through? Do you expect him to be limited at all going forward? And if so, how long could the injury linger? — Brian S.
A high ankle sprain is pretty much always bad news, even if it’s mild. The quarterback position is really the only one where it’s possible to play through it and have some success in the first few weeks, but the risk of re-injury is incredibly high. It also really hurts lateral movements. The Inside Injuries algorithm agrees that his ankle injury is not too severe, but it still comes with a three-week optimal recovery time.
Earlier in the season, Tannehill suffered a high ankle sprain on the opposite side and missed a couple of games. He may try to play through this one, but it won’t be easy. Tannehill went from a limited practice Wednesday to a full practice Thursday, so he is trending towards playing.
(Top photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)
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