In the world of NFL survivor pool picks, sometimes the most obvious choice isn’t the right choice. For some, the strategy of picking a weekly winner doesn’t go beyond this poignant quote from Staff Sergeant Lincoln Osiris…”Survive.” Basically, if you enter your survivor pool this season without a plan, you might find it difficult to have any quality teams left by the time you reach Week 8. After all, once you use a team, they’re done for the season. In other words, failing to plan is planning to fail.
Each week during this season, we’ll take a look at the most popular survivor pool picks, discuss strategy and look ahead to the weeks ahead as we try to survive the 2022-23 NFL season. Feel free to jump in the comments and make your choice to survive this week.
So, what are some of the noteworthy strategies you can implement heading into your survivor pool?
Personally, I like to make a list of teams I really like for all 18 weeks of NFL action heading into the season. This allows you to cross-reference which teams overlap on which weeks to help you develop an optimal team selection schedule. Teams like the Broncos, Buccaneers, and Bengals all have future games on the calendar that I want to keep in my back pocket for later in the season and would like to avoid using to start the season. We could pick Denver in Russell Wilson’s revenge game on Monday Night Football, but the Broncos host Houston in Week 2 in what could be a more appealing option. Denver is favored by 10.5 points on look-ahead lines.
You can always run into issues when trying to implement this strategy, in particular with how common season-ending injuries are in the NFL.
An alternative factor worth taking into consideration is that many of these predetermined selections are likely to be chalk plays, which are the equivalent of low-hanging fruit in the survivor pool world.
So, a strategy that zags-when-everyone-else-
One final strategy to consider is to identify who the worst team in the league will be and ride that vehicle until the wheels fall off.
I prefer to forecast which games/teams I like ahead of the season in an attempt to feel comfortable with a team I’m selecting every week… however, don’t pigeonhole yourself. Be willing to adapt, take calculated risks, and don’t second guess yourself!
Here’s my initial plan for the first three weeks. Obviously, things could change after we get to see the teams play this weekend. The only away game is the 49ers at the Bears and we avoid divisional games altogether. Next week, we’ll look further into the future and map out a plan for the entire season.
Week 1: Pick 49ers at Chicago
Week 2: Pick Broncos vs. Houston
Week 3: Pick Chargers vs. Jaguars
Week 1 Public Plays
Using data from RunYourPool.com, here are the five most popular plays so far for Week 1. The scary thing is that four of these teams are on the road and I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of these teams lose. In all, 10 road teams are favored this week out of 16 games. That could cause some Week 1 survivor chaos.
| TEAM | Opponent | Public Pick |
|---|---|---|
|
at Jets |
20.8% |
|
|
at Texans |
17.3% |
|
|
vs. Giants |
11.8% |
|
|
at Seahawks |
10.9% |
|
|
at Bears |
9.1% |
Week 1 Chalk Picks
49ers at Bears
The Trey Lance era has officially started in San Francisco. However, he is not the reason I’m all-in on the 49ers for the season opener. The Niners feel like the superior team across the board. They have better offensive playmakers, better offensive linemen, and better pass rushers. In particular, I expect Nick Bosa to harass Justin Fields from start to finish in this contest.
Pick: 49ers
Colts at Texans
Pick: Colts
Week 1 Contrarian Picks
Patriots at Dolphins — Only 1.1% pick Miami
Pick: Dolphins
Saints at Falcons — Only 4.9% pick New Orleans
Jameis Winston saw his first action of the preseason and appeared to move around quite well after a torn ACL ended what appeared to be a promising 2021 campaign. Well, after throwing 12 touchdowns through his first six starts, Winston returns under center to see the likes of Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave as pass-catching options alongside Alvin Kamara for the new-look Saints offense. The Falcons also have a new look on the offensive side of the football, which will see Marcus Mariota get his first start under center since the 2019 season. In a showdown of the top two quarterbacks off the board in the 2015 NFL draft, it’s Jameis Winston who has the far superior supporting cast. Looking ahead, the only other game where the Saints will be favored by more than five points is in Week 5 when they host the Seahawks.
Pick: Saints
Please let me know who your favorite survivor pool play is in the comments.
(Photo of Nick Bosa: Michael Owens/Getty Images)
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