Don’t let the Draymond Green suspension overshadow a simple truth: The Sacramento Kings have been better than the Golden State Warriors through two games.
Maybe it’s just an extension of Golden State’s weird home/road splits this season, and now that the series is back in San Francisco the Warriors will come alive. Or maybe we’ve just underestimated the Kings.
The Warriors host Game 3 on Thursday night, trailing the Kings 0-2 in the series. The Warriors are 5.5-point favorites at BetMGM.
The Green suspension won’t help Golden State. In Game 2 Green stomped on Domantas Sabonis, yelled at the fans and got himself suspended for Game 3. The Warriors certainly didn’t need that as they faced a significant hole in their first-round series.
The good part about that weird home/road split for the Warriors is they’re incredible at home. Golden State is 33-8 at home this season, and counting the playoffs they’re 11-32 on the road. That’s extreme. If Golden State had Green, they’d probably be an auto-bet for many in Game 3. Not having Green makes it a little harder to buy in, although the Warriors will be desperate and have been a different team at home this season.
Maybe the Warriors are the right side for Game 3, but don’t completely dismiss the Kings either. Plenty of people have made that mistake twice already this series.
Here’s a first look at the sports betting slate for Thursday:
Suns try to get back home-court advantage
The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers split the first two games of their series in Arizona, which means the Suns have to take at least one road game to win the series.
The odds like their chances. The Suns are 2.5-point favorites for Game 3 against the Clippers in Los Angeles. Kawhi Leonard has been great in the series, and if the Clippers want to win the pivotal Game 3 he’ll need to carry most of the load and get a little bit of help, which is what happened in Los Angeles’ Game 1 win. The Suns will probably find a way to win the series, but the Clippers won’t go away easily.
In the other NBA game Thursday, the Brooklyn Nets are down 0-2 and don’t look like they can compete against the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are a 4.5-point favorite for Game 3. One bet that’s popular is taking home teams that are down 0-2 for the first half of Game 3. The Nets are +2.5 for the first half if you buy that trend.
All 4 NHL home teams try to even series
On Tuesday, road teams went 4-0 in the NHL playoffs. If you want to use the zig-zag betting — it worked in three of four NHL games on Wednesday — that means the home favorites should rebound on Thursday. Here are the odds on the four home teams:
Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs (-175)
New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils (-130)
Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche (-220)
Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights (-165)
MLB has 7 games
It’s an off day for about half of MLB, but there are still some compelling matchups. The best game happens in the Bronx, as the Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees play the deciding game of a fun series. The Yankees are -155 favorites, which seems a touch high even though their starter Nestor Cortes Jr. is capable. Angels starter Patrick Sandoval is off to a nice start this season as well, and he’s capable of keeping the Angels in the game.
What’s the best bet?
The odds on most of the NHL home teams for Thursday are inflated a bit, but I don’t think the Devils at -130 is too steep. The Rangers are a good road team, but the Devils were good all season too and I don’t think they’re going down 0-2 in this series. One of those road underdogs is likely to get a pivotal win (maybe Winnipeg?), but I don’t think it’ll be the Rangers.