Evaluating NBA draft prospects is an inexact science. No two people will ever have the same scouting report on a guy, for a multitude of reasons.
For example, Scout 1 may put a greater emphasis on shooting, and less emphasis on motor, where Scout 2 has it flipped.
Only a few common skills seem widely agreed upon as being the most crucial, here among them shot-creation ability, and defensive flexibility. Players who can manufacture their own offense, as well as offense for others, will almost always get a stock boost solely off that particular ability.
As such, as a reader, it can be difficult to gauge who has the most accurate scouting report on a certain player, especially as draft coverage is everywhere these days. Some analysts might completely nail a certain prospect, and be way off on another. And asking readers to navigate that can be difficult.
Therefore, it’s almost refreshing to have a year like this where everyone is in agreement about a certain French big man.
(Yes, this is another Victor Wembanyama piece.)
Let’s state the obvious. There’s never been anyone who’s had this combination of size and skill. And I don’t mean never in the exaggerated sense. I mean literally never.
Wembanyama’s size is of course the major appeal. Anyone standing 7-foot-5 with an 8-foot-0 wingspan is automatically going to be intriguing for defensive purposes, but when you add in his mobility, speed, and pure shot-making ability, the end result is a prospect so universally agreed upon as being unique, he becomes the undeniably favorite among almost everyone.
Consensus is a funny thing. Some teams can end up growing a sort of hive mind on a guy, which ultimately ends up being entirely misplaced. Other teams will have wild internal debates about numerous guys, leading to the general manager to make a tough call when they’re on the clock.
With Wembanyama, consensus is widespread, independent from team to team. You can call it a 30-team hive mind, which points to a player with superstar upside.
Of course, that doesn’t always mean it’s a sure thing.
Going back to Markelle Fultz in 2017, a player who at the time was viewed as Dwyane Wade with a jump shot, it seemed obvious that all teams would have him at the top of their board.
However, the fact that Boston was even willing to relinquish the first overall pick that year will tell you that opinions differed. Fultz, despite looking like a future NBA All-Star during his lone year in Washington, still had doubts.
(Remember, this all unfolded before his shoulder injury, which ultimately sidetracked his career.)
I still remember just how big a story this was at the time. By sheer coincidence, when the trade went down, my podcast partner Bryan Toporek and I were recording a podcast with draft expert Sam Vecenie, currently of The Athletic.
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When the trade was announced, we all had to jump off the call within a few minutes, because we all needed to get to work on typing out articles about how weird a move this was for Boston.
After all, Dwyane Wade with a jump shot? How do you give that up?
Five years, and one Jayson Tatum, later and it was apparent that Boston made the right call, forcing everyone in the business to raise their critical thinking at least a smidge.
With Wembanyama, at least for now, it seems the only possible hindrance could be injuries. Yao Ming only lasted seven real seasons. Sam Bowie never could stay healthy. Gheorghe Muresan barely cracked 300 career games. We all still think back at Greg Oden and sigh at his unfortunate injuries.
So the concern about Wembanyama is seen through a historical lens, which I’m not sure is entirely fair, but it’s understandable that NBA teams would have to at least think in those lanes, and determine if there’s a real risk.
Injuries aside, however, it’s objectively difficult to find major flaws in Wembanyama, at least seen from the point of production and skills.
At 18, Wembanyama is not only putting up over 21 points in the best professional league in France, he’s also showcasing a highly competent ability to pass the ball and protect the rim.
He’s also, apparently, taking one-legged running shots from downtown which just adds to the absurdity of his game.
Even the most skeptical scout, trying their best to pick apart his game (which is a job requirement, I should add) has one heck of a task in front of them.
What’s further interesting is that the job of scouts is to evaluate Wembanyama both on his current state of play, and his future potential, and it’s already challenging coming up with something egregious at his current point of development.
This is not to say Wembanyama is going to live up to the hype. Nor am I trying to insinuate that it’s impossible for everyone to be wrong.
The draft remains a crap shoot, regardless of how loaded it is with talent. Maturity, mental approach, media exposure, chemistry with teammates, it all factors in.
The best thing you can do is to make the best possible evaluation, know that you’ve turned as many stones as possible, and look at yourself in the mirror afterwards.
After that, it’s up to the player. Fortunately for Wembanyama especially, he at least stands a strong chance at not making liars out of all of us.
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