Jul. 12—There has been speculation for years about whether participants of the MLB All-Star Game Home Run Derby are more vulnerable to a decrease in their offensive statistics in the second half of the season.
The infamous “Home Run Derby curse” — is it urban legend or cause for concern?
Many claim the curse to be a myth because there are exceptions — there are occasions when a player participating in the derby will perform better after the All-Star break. But many players show a drop-off in both batting average and power.
Derby participants’ second-half performances are a long-lasting topic of debate. It is common for players to choose not to participate in the derby if they are having a good season.
“It can definitely affect certain hitters, depending on their approach,” Spokane Indians hitting coach Zach Osborne said. “The amount of reps that they get in the derby can put them in that pull-heavy mindset. It gets them away from the in-game approach of getting the ball off-gap or to center field.”
One of the reasons why some participants see a dip in their numbers is “regression to the mean.” Players are chosen to participate in the derby because they are one of the hottest hitters in the league at the break. While some of them are bound to continue their outstanding seasons, it is inevitable that not all eight will maintain the standard they set for themselves in the first half.
It seems reasonable that 90 games would be enough time to judge how a player will perform all season, but there have been many cases where a player has a breakout first half, only to return to his typical production level after the break.
According to MLB.com, 43 out of 74 derby participants between 1999 and 2010 saw a decrease in their production after the All-Star break.
A 2010 study conducted by the Society for American Baseball Research analyzed the first and second halves for each of the Home Run Derby participants from the start of the event until 2009.
Throughout these players’ careers, including seasons where they did not make the derby, their average OPS and home run percentage remained nearly identical between the first and second half of the season.
However, for seasons where these players did participate, the average OPS dropped by 43 points, and the home run percentage decreased by nearly one percent. In seasons they did not participate in the derby, their OPS and home run percentage increased in the second half.
This difference is the clearest indication that the home run derby can lead to a falloff in the stat sheet.
If a player has a slump following their derby performance, they are less likely to want to participate in the derby again. Even for players who chose to participate in multiple derbies throughout their careers, the second-half struggle is more common in their derby seasons.
For these repeat participants, the OPS drops by 32 points in their derby seasons, and their home run percentage drops nearly half a percent after the break. In non-derby seasons, both OPS and home run percentage increase at the break.
According to MLB.com, between 2017-19 each Home Run Derby had a participant whose OPS dropped by 200 points or more in the second half of the season. While that is only considering one of the eight participants, 200 points is enough of a significant decrease for players to question participating in the derby.
There are a plethora of reasons why players go into post-derby slumps. One of the most popular is that players tweak their swing to put on a show for the all-star crowd.
With the amount of preparation that derby participants put in, it makes sense that it may take time to get used to seeing 95 mph fastballs and breaking pitches again after gearing their swing for soft-toss.
In 2005, Chicago White Sox outfielder Bobby Abreu hit 41 home runs in the derby and had a significant post-derby decline.
Abreu’s batting average dropped by 47 points and his OPS dropped by nearly 200 points. He only hit six home runs compared to 18 in the first half. The only offensive statistics that increased from Abreu’s first to second half were negative — strikeouts and caught stealing.
Iván Rodríguez, a 14-time All-Star, hit .252 in the second half of the 2005 season after he hit .292 before his derby appearance. It was one of the worst stretches of Rodríguez’s Hall of Fame career — in which he hit .296.
The group of derby participants who slump later in the season does not exclude top performers of the derby. In 2019, derby champion Pete Alonso hit .235 in the second half after hitting .280 in the first.
In 2022, both the derby champion and runner-up struggled in the second half. Juan Soto, a career .284 hitter, hit .231 after winning the derby. He only hit seven home runs compared to 20 in the first half. The runner-up, Trey Mancini, saw a 100-point decrease in his batting average from the first to the second half.
“I don’t think it will ruin a player’s swing. It might put them in a funk for a couple games, but the good ones can make that adjustment,” Osborne said. “It can lead guys to be more prone to swinging at off-speed pitches in the dirt and hitting soft ground balls.”
While the High-A Northwest League does not hold a derby, the Spokane Indians choose four of their players to compete in a derby in front of the fans at preseason Fanfest each year. Osborne noted that the four Indians that participated this year are having great seasons. Zach Kokoska is hitting over .300 with 15 home runs in 67 games after hitting in the derby. The Indians derby winner, Jordan Beck, has a .944 OPS and leads the league with 20 home runs and 72 RBIs.
It takes a relentless mindset to maintain All-Star numbers for a 162-game season. As MLB moves into the final 72 games of the 2023 season, it will be interesting to see which of the eight Home Run Derby participants uphold their seasons and which will cool down.
Seattle Mariners centerfielder Julio Rodríguez broke the record for home runs in a single derby round on Monday with 41. While Rodríguez slowed down and was knocked out in the second round, he displayed his outstanding power to the rest of the league. There will be a lot of eyes on Seattle’s offensive leader moving forward, as the Mariners currently sit on the outside looking in, four games behind Toronto for the third wild-card spot in the American League.
Liam Bradford’s reporting is part of the Teen Journalism Institute, funded by Bank of America with support from the Innovia Foundation.