Unprecedented Parity Could Have A Chilling Effect On NBA Trade Season

By the quarter mark of a typical NBA season, we often begin to get a read on most teams. Title contenders have usually gained some separation over lottery-bound bottom-feeders, drawing a clear distinction between trade deadline buyers and sellers.

The 2022-23 NBA campaign has not been a typical season, which could lead to less action on the trade market in the coming weeks.

“As of last Friday, with the season at the approximate quarter pole, 17 of the league’s 30 teams were within three games of .500—ie, either three games above or three games below,” Sports Illustrated‘s Howard Beck wrote Wednesday. “That’s the most in NBA history through a quarter of the season, per league officials.”

The Boston Celtics (21-5) and Milwaukee Bucks (18-6) look like the clear title favorites in the Eastern Conference, and the Cleveland Cavaliers (16-9) are gaining separation as the third-best team. There’s only a three-game gap between the No. 4 seed Brooklyn Nets (14-12) and No. 12 seed Chicago Bulls (10-14) heading into Friday, though.

The Western Conference is somehow even more muddled. The New Orleans Pelicans sit atop the conference at 16-8, although the Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies are hot on their tail at 16-9. Meanwhile, the no. 13 seed Los Angeles Lakers (10-14) are only six games behind the Pelicans, and they’ve been surging after a slow start to the season.

The Orlando Magic (6-20), San Antonio Spurs (6-18), Detroit Pistons (7-20), Charlotte Hornets (7-18) and Houston Rockets (7-17) are the only five teams that appear to be confidently lottery-bound at this stage of the season. More may join them in the coming weeks as injuries mount around the league, but the balance between potential trade-deadline buyers and sellers may be out of whack until then.

Dec. 15 is the unofficial start of the trade season, as that’s the date when most free agents who signed with teams this past summer become trade-eligible. (Certain others won’t become eligible until Jan. 15.) However, there hasn’t been a trade on Dec. 15 since 2010, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks.

Most teams wait until closer to the NBA’s trade deadline—set for Feb. 9 this season—before jumping into action. There were only four trades in January last season, but the action began to ramp up in early February. Teams swung six deals in the lead-up to the deadline, including the Tyrese Haliburton-Domantas Sabonis blockbuster between the Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings, and 10 more trades happened on the day of the deadline.

The most consequential deal to happen in January last season was the Atlanta Hawks sending Cam Reddish, Solomon Hill and a 2025 second-round pick to the New York Knicks for Kevin Knox II, a protected first-round pick and cash. Otherwise, teams largely shuffled around fringe rotation players as they waited for bigger deals to materialize.

The same may happen this season, particularly if the standings remain as closely bunched as they are now.

On Dec. 9 last season, the East was similarly up for grabs. The Nets led the conference at 17-8, but the 13th-seeded Pacers were only seven games behind them at 11-16. However, the Golden State Warriors (21-4) and Suns (20-4) were already running away with the West at this point, while the Pelicans appeared to be dead in the water at 7-20.

The Pelicans eventually turned their season around, in part because of their deal for CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. with the Portland Trail Blazers right before the trade deadline. They had jumped up to 10th in the West by the time they made that deal, though, so they were already on the upswing.

The Pacers could have hoped for a similar midseason turnaround back in early December, but the writing was on the wall when they were 19-37 two months later. Being eight games out of the final spot in the play-in tournament seemingly motivated them to break up the Sabonis-Myles Turner pairing and pivot toward a rebuild with Haliburton as the centerpiece.

Since teams are clustered so closely together for now, there may be a dearth of obvious sellers when the calendar flips to December. 15. Playoff contenders may try to pilfer the likes of Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel from the Pistons or Eric Gordon from the Rockets, but it’s hard to imagine the Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers or Minnesota Timberwolves pivoting into seller mode anytime soon. the lofty expectations they had entering the season.

Injuries have also factored into many teams’ relatively slow starts. This Philadelphia 76ers core might be doomed, but it’s difficult to render a final judgment when Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and James Harden have combined to miss 31 games to date. The same goes for the Miami Heat, who’ve been without Jimmy Butler for 10 of their 26 games, Tyler Herro for eight of them and Victor Oladipo for all but two.

By mid-to-late January, more teams should have a better feeling as to whether they have legitimate playoff or championship aspirations this year. Those that don’t could decide to take a step back and sell off veterans or players on expiring contracts whom they have no intention of re-signing next summer.

While trade rumors will inevitably start flying in the coming weeks—the New York Knicks got a head start on that in recent days—don’t expect a flurry of trades until closer to the deadline. Too many teams are still in evaluation mode for now.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.