Tuesday was a busy day in and out of Tuley’s Take home office.
We spent the morning writing the weekly version of this column for VSiN’s digital magazine, Point Spread Weekly, then also took part in a slot tournament at the D in downtown Las Vegas. This was a typical slot tournament – for those who don’t know – where everyone basically hits the SPIN button as fast as they can to get as many spins in the allotted time (in this case, three separate 2-minute sessions over Tuesday and Wednesday, plus “mulligan” rounds if purchased separately) to score as many points as you can. It basically comes down to who gets the luckiest with the most or biggest jackpots. I probably need a bunch of those on Wednesday to get in contention, so I’ll probably shell out the extra $25 for a mulligan. My luck wasn’t any better Tuesday with my MLB 1st Innings wagers. My Best Bet was looking great as the Rangers (1st 5 + 125) were leading the Astros 4-0 in the top of the 4th inning and 5-4 in the top of the 5th, but Martin Perez wasn’t able to hold on as the Astros led 6-5 after 5. I consider that a Bad Beat. I also lost my secondary play on the A’s + 150 vs. the Angels as they were shut down by Shohei Ohtani as the Angels led 4-0 after 5 innings. I’ve been so streaky with these 1st 5 plays (0-2 Friday, 4-0 Saturday, 1-1 Sunday, 2-0 Monday, 0-2 Tuesday), it really makes me think I should be betting more parlays to minimize risk and maximize profits when we sweep. Anyway, let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Wednesday’s MLB card, plus we have early NFL Preseason Week 1 plays that we’ve given out on “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night and added some in PSW.
Tuesday’s recaps
MLB: Mariners (+ 121) beat Yankees 1-0 in 13 innings late Tuesday. MLB favorites went 11-5 on the night. Other notable upsets were by Rockies (+ 152 in 16-5 home rout vs. Cardinals, who had their 7-game win streak snapped) and Nationals (+ 188 in 6-5 win at Cubs to snap a 6-game skid). Home teams went 11-5 on Tuesday. Over/Unders split 7-7-2 with pushes in the Guardians’ 5-2 win at the Tigers (with a betting total of 7 runs) and the Brewers’ 5-3 win vs. the Rays (betting total of 8).
More MLB: Faves lead 978-649 SU (60 percent) on the season with 25 pick-’ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead 872-780 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 809-758-82 (51.6 percent).
Wednesday’s Takes
Rockies 1st 5 + 125 vs. Cardinals: Regular readers will remember last Wednesday when we had swagger/anti-swagger plays on the Pirates and Nationals and came out ahead when the Pirates cashed at +190 vs. the Brewers. Well, we have an anti-swagger play against the Cardinals, who had their 7-game winning streak snapped, so we’re taking the Rockies in the 1st 5 innings with Kyle Freeland (7-7, but Rockies are 12-9 in his starts). Today’s swagger play is on the Nationals, who snapped their 6-game losing streak, as they’re around +135 on the 1st 5 line at the Cubs in a pretty much coin-flip between Josiah Gray and Justin Steele. We make a profit with a split and clean up if we get another sweep.
Thursday Patriots + 1.5 vs. the Giants: This game kicks off the NFL Preseason Week 1. We’ll add more picks during the week as we hear from more coaches on their QB rotations and how long starters might be playing (note: following my lead of shortening baseball games with 1st 5 wagers , I might be betting more 1st halves this preseason). We shall see. Anyway, Belichick is 49-36 ATS (57.6 percent) in preseason games so he knows how to prepare for these while the Giants’ Brian Daboll has his first head coaching job. In addition, Daboll has already forbidden taping of his practices, so we don’t expect him to show much in the preseason games. I really don’t understand the love for the Giants here in being favored (and the Patriots are up to 2 at several books here in Las Vegas (Circa, Westgate, William Hill, Station Casinos), plus DraftKings in states where VSiN’s parent company is licensed. Granted, there are reports of the Patriots’ offense struggling in practice, but I expect more from New England’s newly named offensive coordinator Matt Patricia, especially if Brian Hoyer receives most of the snaps. In addition, rookie Bailey Zappe looks like the type of gunslinger who can excel against backup defenses in preseason games.
Ravens -3.5 vs. Titans: No, I’m not going to defy my dog-or-pass approach and lay the points, but I do feel I should mention this game for those who want to ride the gravy train that is John Harbaugh in the preseason (37-15 ATS, 71.1 percent, and a record 20 consecutive straight-up wins), Personally, I believe that’s too high a tax to pay to lay more than a field goal in a preseason game (or around -180 on the money line), so let the bettor beware.
Saturday Seahawks + 3 at Steelers: Geno Smith is the incumbent to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, but we’re hearing that former Bronco Drew Lock is having a good camp, so we could have a motivated backup. If they both see considerable time, I give a considerable edge to the Seahawks. Mitch Trubisky is No. 1 on the Steelers’ depth chart, so we don’t see as much of a QB battle there with Mason Rudolph and rookie Kenny Pickett. For future reference, Seattle’s Pete Carroll (26-17, 60.5 percent) and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin (34-24 ATS, 58.6 percent) are both play-on coaches.
Panthers + 3.5 at Commanders: Hey, I didn’t type Redskins or Washington Football Team! There are rumors that the Panthers are still shopping for a starting QB, but for now I still like the preseason rotation of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral and PJ Walker battling for their spots on the roster. And we’re getting more than a field goal? I’ll take it.
Good luck today (and every day!).