For an in depth analysis of Tuesday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 pm ET. I’ll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 pm ET.
In the meantime, let’s discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action on Tuesday…
7:10 pm ET: Atlanta Braves (64-46) at Boston Red Sox (54-56)
Neither of these Interleague foes have played particularly well as of late. The Braves are just 2-5 over their last seven games, most recently dropping four of five on the road at the division rival Mets. Meanwhile, the Red Sox just dropped three of four on the road at the lowly Royals. In tonight’s series opener, Atlanta starts veteran righty Charlie Morton (5-5, 4.09 ERA) and Boston counters with veteran southpaw Rich Hill (4-5, 4.52 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -145 road favorite and the Red Sox a +130 domestic dogs. Pros are banking on the Braves to take care of business, steaming Atlanta up from -145 to -155. Non-division road favorites are 191-121 (61%) this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last season, like Atlanta here, are 210-119 (64%). The Braves are 25-12 against lefties. The Red Sox are 37-46 against righties. Both teams are hitting roughly .250. The difference comes on the mound, with Atlanta holding a 3.67 team ERA compared to 4.39 for Boston.
7:10 pm ET: Cleveland Guardians (56-52) at Detroit Tigers (43-67)
The Guardians just split a four game series at home against the Astros and only sit 1-game behind the first place Twins in the AL Central. On the flip side, the Tigers are 2-7 over their last nine games, just dropped two of three at home to the Rays and are well out of playoff contention. In tonight’s series opener, Cleveland turns to ace righty Shane Bieber (6-6, 3.39 ERA) and Detroit taps lefty Tyler Alexander (2-5, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with the Guardians listed as a -175 road favorite and the Tigers a +160 domestic dogs. Sharps aren’t outsmarting themselves on this one. They’re backing the better team with their ace on the bump, steaming Cleveland up from -175 to -185. Road favorites are 360-239 (60%) this season. The Guardians hold a substantial edge at the plate, hitting .251 compared to .226 for the Tigers. Detroit is 0-5 in Alexander’s last five starts. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 7.
10:10 pm ET: Minnesota Twins (57-51) at Los Angeles Dodgers (75-33)
Both of these division leaders have their eyes on the postseason. The Twins lead the NL Central by one game and two games, respectively, over the second place Guardians and third place White Sox. Minnesota just split a four-game series at home against Toronto. Meanwhile, the Dodgers own the best record in baseball and lead the NL West by 16 games over the second place Padres. Los Angeles has won eight straight and just swept the Padres at home. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, Minnesota hands the ball to righty Joe Ryan (8-4, 3.67 ERA) and Los Angeles counters with southpaw Julio Urias (11-6, 2.57 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -190 home favorite and the Twins a +175 road dogs. Sharps aren’t scared off by the big chalk and have steamed the red-hot Dodgers up from -190 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more are 177-73 (71%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 75-46 (62%). The Dodgers are 74-32 as a favorite, 38-15 at home and 51-21 against righties. Los Angeles holds a big advantage on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 2.87 compared to 4.02 for Minnesota.