The Leafs haven’t had many high picks in recent years, but their system is at 19 due to the strong progress of the picks they have made, particularly second-round pick Matthew Knies who had a great freshman season. Their system lacks depth, but there’s a few players here who I think can help their club.
Note: Toronto’s first-round pick in 2020, Rodion Amirov, was diagnosed with a brain tumor this past season. Due to the seriousness of his medical condition, I felt it would be inappropriate to comment on Amirov in a player evaluation context.
Key graduates: Timothy Liljegren
Key additions: Fraser Minten
2021 ranking: No. 21
2022 NHL Draft grade: B-
Full 2022-23 NHL Pipeline Rankings
Player Ranking
1. Matthew Knies, LW
19 years old | 6-foot-3 | 205 pounds | Shoots left
Drafted: No. 57 in 2021
Tier: Bubble top and middle of the lineup players
Skating: Below NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Analysis: Knies had a great season, being a top player in his conference as a freshman. He was an important part of Team USA’s U20 team and played a notable role for their Olympic squad. He’s a big, strong winger with great hands. He showed a lot of offensive touch, especially around the net this season. He’s a competitive player who doesn’t shy away from engaging physically, being able to beat opponents with skill or power. His skating isn’t amazing, but every other aspect of Knies’ game looks NHL quality that I can see him projecting as a quality top-six winger.
Matthew Knies: pic.twitter.com/6HJBg1OXnc
— Joshua Kloke (@joshuakloke) July 17, 2022
2. Rasmus Sandin, D
22 years old | 5-foot-11 | 183 pounds | Shoots left
Drafted: No. 29 in 2018
Tier: Bubble top and middle of the lineup players
Skating: Below NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: NHL average
Analysis: Sandin had a positive season in the limited role he got on a good Toronto team. Sandin is a great puck mover, who lacks NHL quickness, but is able to make a ton of plays due to his skill and brain. He makes great outlets and shows high-end creativity and vision from the offensive blue line. He’ll never be a great defender due to his size and feet, but he competes hard and his IQ will help him be competent enough defensively while being great offensively high in a lineup in time. He does need to stay healthy, though.
3. Nicholas Robertson, LW
20 years old | 5-foot-9 | 162 pounds | Shoots left
Drafted: No. 53 in 2019
Tier: Middle of the lineup player
Skating: Below NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Shot: Above NHL average
Analysis: Robertson missed time this season due to injury, but when healthy he was a highly-productive AHL player. He’s an entertaining player to watch due to his offensive creativity and high effort level. Robertson is not the biggest and doesn’t have the prettiest skating stride but his skill, sense and compete to go with a great shot allow him to make the most of his toolkit. He scores wherever he goes, and I think down the line he can be a top-nine winger.
4. Topi Niemelä, D
20 years old | 5-foot-11 | 160 pounds | Shoots right
Drafted: No. 64 in 2020
Tier: Middle of the lineup player
Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: Below NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: NHL average
Analysis: Niemela had a great season — one of the most productive campaigns by a teenage defenseman in Liiga ever. Niemela’s toolkit doesn’t jump off the page to you. He’s a good, fluid skater but he’s not a burner nor is he that physically imposing. Niemela is super smart with the puck, though. His first pass is excellent, and he can make a lot of plays in the offensive half of the ice. I can see him becoming a third- or second-pair defenseman in the NHL.
5. Fraser Minten, C
18 years old | 6-foot-1 | 185 pounds | Shoots left
Drafted: No. 38 in 2022
Tier: Projected to play NHL games
Skating: Below NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: NHL average
Compete: NHL average
Analysis: Minten can make things happen with the puck. He has a good stick, he can move pucks into seams and make plays under pressure. He also has a good wrist shot and can score from the circles. Minten’s skating is OK. He lacks quick burst but with his size, he’s able to get around enough guys. He competes well enough but can draft too much to the perimeter, though. I think he plays games as a bottom-six forward.
6. Roni Hirvonen, C
20 years old | 5-foot-9 | 164 pounds | Shoots left
Drafted: No. 59 in 2020
Tier: Projected to play NHL games
Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Shot: Above NHL average
Analysis: Hirvonen has been a solid pro the last few years and a leading player against his age group at the junior level. He’s a highly-intelligent center who sees the ice at a high level. He can make the flashy skilled plays, but also has a high compete level and doesn’t shy from going to the net or engaging along the walls. Hirvonen isn’t the biggest or fastest, but he’s quick enough to play games. If he’s as good a pro as he is a junior, he’s a middle-six forward all day, but that’s the question on him and as of now I’m 100 percent convinced it’s going to work in the NHL at that level even if I think he gets games.
Has a chance to play (listed alphabetically)
Artur Akhtiamov, G
20 years old | 6-foot-2 | 170 pounds | Catches left
Drafted: No. 106 in 2020
Analysis: Akhtiamov moves around the net very well with his lateral movement, and has great recovery ability to get in and out of his butterfly. I think he has good sense and can track pucks. He can be overaggressive at times but overall he’s effective. He lacks size, which is the main reason I’m not ready to stamp him as a legit goalie, but he has a chance to play games.
Dennis Hildeby, G
21 years old | 6-foot-5 | 209 pounds | Catches left
Drafted: No. 122 in 2022
Analysis: Hildeby is a highly-intriguing athlete. He’s a big goalie who moves quite well in the net. He hasn’t played much hockey in the last few years and I don’t love his technique at times, but he has legit pro potential.
Brandon Lisowsky, LW
18 years old | 5-foot-8 | 171 pounds | Shoots left
Drafted: No. 218 in 2022
Analysis: Lisowsky is a talented forward with very good puck skills, offensive creativity and a shot that is a weapon from range. His one-timer can regularly beat goalies from the faceoff dots. He is 5-foot-8 without much speed, although his edge and first step are strong and he can be quite elusive. Lisowsky shows flashes of good competition, but he can play too much on the perimeter and isn’t great defensively. His talent level gives him a chance to make it but ideally his skating gains a step.
Nicholas Moldenhauer, RW
18 years old | 5-foot-10 | 170 pounds | Shoots right
Drafted: No. 95 in 2022
Analysis: Moldenhauer is an excellent skater who can make highly-skilled plays with the puck. He’s dangerous in transition and off entries, but I don’t see him as a really cerebral player who can make a lot of plays. As a 5-foot-10 forward I’d like to see more offense from him overall or be a true 200-foot guy. So despite NHL speed and skill, his role is unclear.
Axel Rindell, D
22 years old | 5-foot-11 | 176 pounds | Shoots right
Drafted: No. 177 in 2020
Analysis: Rindell is a bit of a longshot due to his frame and not having great mobility, but he has great hockey sense, and is a threat from the offensive blue line.
Alex Steves, LW
22 years old | 5-foot-11 | 185 pounds | Shoots left
Signed to ELC
Analysis: Steeves was quite productive as a rookie pro. He’s a highly-skilled goal-scorer who can make plays, but he’s not that big or quick so it’s debatable if the way he plays will work in the NHL.
Ryan Tverberg, RW
20 years old | 5-foot-10 | 168 pounds | Shoots right
Drafted: No. 213 in 2020
Analysis: Tverberg had a strong sophomore season at UConn, scoring a point per game and getting an invite to Canada’s U20 camp. His development has gone well after being a seventh-round pick, with notable improvements turning his skating into a clear strength. His game has speed and he attacks the net with skill — a style of play that will translate to the pros. He’s not physically imposing off the puck, but he competes well enough to potentially be a bottom-six winger.
Ty Voit, RW
18 years old | 5-foot-10 | 161 pounds | Shoots right
Drafted: No. 153 in 2021
Analysis: Voit is a highly-creative forward with very good puck skills and vision who can shoot the puck well too. He lacks NHL size and speed but his skating is shifty enough to give him a chance.
Player Eligibility: All skaters who are 22 years old or younger as of Sept. 15, 2022, regardless of how many NHL games they’ve played, are eligible. Player heights and weights are taken from the NHL.
Tool grades: Tool grades are based on a scale with six separate levels, with an eye toward how this attribute would grade in the NHL (poor, below-average, average, above-average, high-end and elite). “Average” on this scale means the tool projects as NHL average, which is meant as a positive, not a criticism. Skating, puck skills, hockey sense and compete for every projected NHL player are graded. Shot grades are only included if a shot is notably good or poor.
Tier Definitions: Tiers are meant to show roughly where in an average NHL lineup a player projects to slot in.
(Illustration: Wes McCabe / The Athletic; (photo of Matthew Knies: Steve Russell / Toronto Star via Getty Images)
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