With a dozen hockey games on tonight’s NHL slate, we’ve got three picks we’re locked in on.
The pregame narrative: The Chicago Blackhawks have been awful, but tonight is a reasonable opportunity for them to break through. Also, the Carolina Hurricanes have a favorable matchup in the late window.
Below are our NHL picks for December 3.
Odds as of 3:08 pm on 12/03/2022.
NHL picks
Best Bet : Blackhawks +1.5 (-117)
The Rangers are playing on consecutive nights, and that remaining disadvantage is part of the reason we’re fading them in tonight’s matchup against the Blackhawks.
In five previous back-to-backs this year, the Rangers have only covered the puck line once. They’ve also failed to cover the puck line in six of their past eight games overall.
Now, the reason this price is so desirable is because the Blackhawks have been truly terrible of late. They’ve lost eight in a row in straight-up fashion, and six of them have come by multiple goals.
On the bright side, things shouldn’t be quite as bleak as they are right now. During this 0-8 stretch, the Blackhawks have a 26.8% goals share at 5-on-5 — compared to a 43.3% expected goals share, per Natural Stat Trick.
And in that same span, the Rangers’ xG share at 5-on-5 (46.7%) is comparable.
Keeping in mind that Chicago hasn’t been quite as bad as the actual numbers suggest, and the fact that New York hasn’t fared well in back-to-backs, we’ll ride with the visiting Blackhawks on the puck line.
Key stats: The Rangers are 8-17 ATS this season, versus a 12-10 ATS mark for the Blackhawks.
Quick picks
Hurricanes over 3 goals (-125): Carolina has scored three or more goals in four of its past six games, but we’re actually most enticed here because of how porous the Kings have been defensively.
Eight of the Kings’ past 10 opponents have scored at least three goals, highlighted by the Kraken’s nine-spot on Tuesday. In the past two weeks, LA has allowed 2.89 goals per 60 at 5-on-5, which is 25th in the NHL.
Carolina and LA haven’t met yet this season, but the Hurricanes scored five goals apiece in last year’s two matchups.
COL/BOS under 6 goals (+100): The Bruins’ defense has been downright absurd at 5-on-5 recently, with just 0.76 goals allowed per 60 over the past two weeks. We’ve also seen Boston hit the under in five of its past seven home games.
Colorado should do its part to keep this game under a modest total too, after playing under this number in seven of its past nine games overall.
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