Yesterday was an off-day for many MLB teams, but everyone’s back in action on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Merrill Kelly will have a chance to exorcise some demons against an elite offense, while NL Cy Young frontrunner Sandy Alcantara is worthy of a rare fade.
Find all our top MLB prop picks for September 13 below.
Odds as of 1:49 pm ET on 09/13/2022.
MLB prop picks
Best bet: Kelly over 17.5 outs (-136)
This isn’t the flashiest price for a best bet, but Kelly has cleared it with such consistency that we couldn’t stay away.
Since June 8, Kelly has completed six or more innings (ie, at least 18 outs) in 16 of his 17 starts. He’s currently 10th in MLB in innings pitched (171.2) and is the clear workhorse for the Diamondbacks.
The potential threat to this prop — and to many pitcher props throughout the year — is the Dodgers’ terrifying offense.
Los Angeles, which averages a league-best 5.44 runs/game, has made life difficult for Kelly this year. In three starts against the Dodgers, Kelly has a 9.70 ERA and only surpassed this outs prop once.
While that’s concerning, it’s important to note that Kelly hasn’t seen the Dodgers since May. He’s been in much finer form since then, and his leash is consistently long enough to cash on this line.
Key stat: Since he last faced the Dodgers, Kelly has posted a 2.60 ERA and has allowed a .569 OPS in 18 starts.
Quick picks
deGrom over 9.5 Ks + Reyes under 1.5 bases (+114): The respect oddsmakers have for deGrom forces us to concoct a mini-parlay in the interest of more money.
deGrom’s price to go over 9.5 strikeouts (-152) is hefty, and it’s daunting when you consider the volume he’ll need to accrue. But his 13.1 K/9 rate over his past seven outings pairs well with his 41.9% K-rate against the current Cubs lineup (31 plate appearances).
Tacking on a Franmil Reyes fade allows us to take advantage of his 0-for-6 career line against deGrom. Reyes has fallen under this line in six of his past nine games.
Alcantara under 20.5 outs (+104): There was a time in the middle of the season when Alcantara was a virtual lock to pitch into — and often through — the seventh inning. But he’s failed to surpass it in three of his past four starts, and the Phillies got the best of him last time out.
Alcantara lasted six innings against the Phillies last Thursday, allowing eight hits and five runs. The risk of another rough start makes this prop a value at its price.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
.