Two hundred and seventy-three teams in NBA history have had a 3-1 lead in a seven-game series. Two hundred and sixty teams have gone on to win that series.
So history says that the Knicks are well-positioned to reach the second round of the NBA playoffs for just the second time since the 2000-01 season.
They have a 3-1 series lead over the Cavs entering Game 5 on Wednesday night.
That alone is an indication that Tom Thibodeau and his staff have done a good job coaching this season.
Thibodeau & Co. changed the 2022-23 season when the coach decided to trim the rotation to nine players in early December. At the time, the Knicks were 10-13 and coming off of an embarrassing home loss to the Mavericks.
I firmly believe that they were a few losses away from major organizational changes.
But when Thibodeau shifted to a nine-man rotation (removing Derrick Rose and Evan Fournier and inserting Miles McBride), the Knicks took off.
They went 37-22 in that span and finished fifth in the Eastern Conference.
Thibodeau and his staff have also made some key decisions in the series against Cleveland:
– Switching their screeners from Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson to guards and wings in pick-and-rolls, as detailed by The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor. This was a major shift from the regular season and has allowed them to take advantage of the Cavs’ pick-and-roll defense against Jalen Brunson.
– Taking advantage of the Cavs’ decision to put Darius Garland on Brunson in Game 4, as noted by Cleveland.com’s Chris Fedor.
– Sticking with RJ Barrett after he struggled with his shot in the first two games of the series. Barrett was instrumental in Knicks wins in Game 3 and Game 4.
– Employing a defensive strategy that has limited Donovan Mitchell to 30 percent shooting from beyond the arc and 16 turnovers in four games.
– Sticking with a lineup that is included Obi Toppin, Isaiah Hartenstein, Josh Hart, Brunson and Barrett for much of the fourth quarter in their Game 4 win. Around the six-minute mark of the game, Thibodeau had a decision to make: go back to Randle or stick with a lineup that had outscored Cleveland by eight points in a three-minute span midway through the fourth. He chose to stick with the lineup, and the Knicks walked off the floor with a win.
Of course, Thibodeau and his staff haven’t been perfect this series. No coaching staff bats 1,000 decisions in a single game, let alone a series.
Ben Ritholz details how Thibodeau and his staff could have done things differently earlier in the Game 4 win.
But the bottom line is that the Knicks have a 3-1 series lead in a season in which they floundered for the first two months. They have a chance to get to the second round for the second time in 23 years. Thibodeau & Co. have battled through the cauldron of coaching in New York and established a winning foundation here.
For that, the coach deserves some credit.