We came a half-point short of a perfect 3-for-3 showing on Friday night, with the Knicks (-3.5) and Pelicans (+1.5) winning in blowout fashion and the Bucks (-1.5) eking out a 1-point road win with Giannis Antetokounmpo fouling out in the final minutes.
We’ll never begrudge a winning slate, and we’ve got our sights set on another with Monday’s schedule, which features a trio of favorites that aren’t getting enough respect.
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NBA Monday odds, picks (via BetMGM)
- Thunder +8.5 @ Mavericks
- Cavaliers -8.5 @ Spurs
- Trail Blazers -4.5 vs. Timberwolves
Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction and analysis (8:30 p.m. ET)
This is a quintessential case of a team that consistently falls short of expectations facing one that regularly rises above it. And this number is simply too big to ignore.
Entering Monday, the Mavericks own the NBA’s second-worst ATS record (8-16-2) with a lousy 4-8-1 ATS mark as home favorites and a 1-3-1 ATS when laying at least eight points. In fact, Dallas has won just five games all season (19.2%) by at least nine points and is coming off its worst loss of the season with Saturday’s 29-point defeat against the Bulls.
Conversely, the Thunder are 15-11 ATS on the year and a stellar 9-4 ATS as road ‘dogs, boasting more outright wins (5) than double-digit losses (3) in that spot. Dallas should win this one outright, but oddsmakers are getting a little too ambitious with the margin here.
Mavericks vs. Thunder pick
Thunder +8.5 (BetMGM)
Spurs vs. Cavaliers prediction and analysis (8:30 p.m. ET)
I never thought I’d see a “sell high” spot on the Spurs, who have been the league’s worst team for weeks and hadn’t won a game in almost a month until Thursday. Two wins later, they’re already inflated in a tough spot against the visiting Cavaliers.
San Antonio scored wins over the Rockets and Heat in recent days to inspire some confidence in the betting market, but this team still lost 11 straight games by an average of 19.5 points before those surprising victories. That’s much closer to what we should expect from this group, which owns the NBA’s worst net rating (-10.2) throughout the entire season.
The Cavaliers rank third in net rating (+6.0) and should return to their elite ways with the return of star guard Donovan Mitchell (leg), who is expected to end a two-game hiatus on Monday. Cleveland outscored teams by 8.1 points per game in its previous 11 games with Mitchell in the lineup, and the Spurs might be the worst team they’ve faced all year long.
Spurs vs. Cavaliers pick
Cavaliers -8.5 (BetMGM)
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Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves prediction and analysis (10 pm ET)
This game features one of my favorite betting spots that has become a curious quirk of the NBA schedule: the “encore spot.”
These two teams played in identical circumstances on Saturday, when the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves by six points as home favorites. Now they face off again in the exact same situation in their next contest – something that’s happened just 55 times since 1999 but 52 times since 2020.
Those previous 52 home favorites went 28-23-1 ATS (54.9%) against their encore opponent, outscoring those teams by 7.5 points per game in the second matchup. Portland has been the better team as of late, anyway, making this an easy bet in a peculiar spot.
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves pick
Trail Blazers -4.5 (BetMGM)
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