The drought is over.
After surprisingly staying alive until the final day of the regular season in 2021, the Seattle Mariners finally broke through in 2022 and ended 21 years of misery that went back to 2001 — not just the longest playoff drought in MLB but also longer than any in the NBA, NFL or NHL. It wasn’t a smooth ride as it took a 14-game winning streak in July to turn things around and they kind of stumbled into the playoffs in the stretch run, but at least the Mariners — and their fans — won’t have to spend the entire offseason and spring training asking, “Will this finally be the year?”
Julio Rodriguez emerged as a superstar — although his late-season back injury is a little concerning. The bullpen was one of the best in the majors and the rotation has depth, but the offense — which failed to score in an 18-inning elimination loss in Game 3 of the ALDS — still needs a lot of work. The Mariners’ $131 million payroll ranked 22nd in the majors, but this is a franchise that has the ability to spend much higher. Since the next step is making up ground on the Houston Astros, they’ll have to improve their hitting.
Here’s a look at where Seattle stands following its exit from the playoffs — and three key questions for the club moving forward to 2023 and beyond.
Notable free agents: OF Mitch Haniger, DH Carlos Santana, 2B Adam Frazier
Haniger is the one they might want to bring back, although after hitting 39 home runs in 2021 he suffered through another injury-plagued season in 2022.
Trade candidates: Nobody obvious
But … this is Jerry Dipoto we’re talking about here. Trader Jerry. The Mariners’ president of baseball ops will do something. With Andres Munoz emerging as a big relief arm — how good does that Ty France/Austin Nola trade look now? — perhaps they trade from their bullpen depth, somebody like Paul Sewald or Diego Castillo, but those wouldn’t be catch-the-Astros type of deals. They traded away a lot of organizational depth in the Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo deals, so the farm system is thinner than it has been.
Extension candidates: They may be all extended out for the time being after the team signed Rodriguez to his 12-year mega-extension and Luis Castillo to a five-year extension that can run through 2028. Munoz was also locked up last offseason — through 2028 with club options. Young starters Logan Gilbert and George Kirby would be next in line.
1. How will they sort out shortstop and second base?
The easiest way to improve the offense is to spend money. Except the top free agents out there other than a certain Mr. Aaron Judge are shortstops — Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson and Carlos Correa. And the Mariners have JP Crawford signed through 2026. Now, you could trade Crawford and sign one of the shortstops. Or maybe you move Crawford to second base to fill a hole there and sign one of the shortstops. Crawford won a Gold Glove in 2020, but his defense has noticeably slipped the past two seasons — Statcast’s outs above average metric ranked him among the worst shortstops in the game in 2022.
Of course, there is no guarantee the Mariners could land any of those four players anyway. However, the potential candidates at second base are nowhere near as good. Frazier is unlikely to return after struggling in 2022. The top potential free agents are Jean Segura of the Phillies and Kolten Wong of the Brewers, both of whom have team options, with Segura the more likely to reach free agency. Bottom line: Cash is king, but Dipoto may have to get creative, including trading more prospects, such as starting pitchers Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller, who both pitched in Double-A this past season.
2. Is Jarred Kelenic an answer in the outfield?
As good as Rodriguez’s rookie season in center field was, the corner positions were a big problem. Seattle’s left fielders ranked 20th in the majors in OPS, as Winker collapsed after his big season with the Reds in 2021. On top of his disappointing hitting, Winker was an absolute disaster with the glove. No fan base should have to witness him playing the outfield on anything but a spot-start basis. With Haniger missing much of the season, Mariners right fielders weren’t any better, also ranking 20th in OPS.
Kelenic, once viewed as a top-10 overall prospect in the game, continued to struggle at the major league level and ended up spending much of the season at Tacoma, where he hit .296/.366/.557. He did look a little better when he returned in September (because of Rodriguez’s injury), but he also looked better last September and was stone cold to start the season. He’s still just 23, so you don’t want to give up on him, but he’s been so bad at the plate that in no way can you count on him. He might need a change of scenery, but you also don’t want to give him away when his value is low. He’ll probably get another opportunity.
Still, that means the club will likely want to bring in one proven veteran, leaving the versatile Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty in bench roles. Maybe that’s Haniger. Brandon Nimmo is probably the best of the non-Judge outfield free agents. Joey Gallo would be a roll of the dice, while Joc Pederson is a less expensive platoon option.
3. What about DH?
Mariners designated hitters were once again among the worst in the majors, ranking 28th in OPS as they hit a pathetic .176. Winker is already signed for $8.25 million, so they’ll likely put him there in 2023, keep him out of the field, and hope the bat bounces back. He still has a great eye, but his hard-hit rate fell from the 81st percentile to the 19th percentile.
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