This is not how it was supposed to end. Not when the New York Mets were 35-17 on June 1 with a 10½-game lead in the National League East and Jacob deGrom hadn’t even pitched yet. Look, the Mets won 101 games, the first time they’ve won 100 since 1988. They became the ninth team to win 101 games or more and not finish first. It was a great regular season. But a first-round exit in the wild-card series? Not even getting the chance to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, let alone their division rivals in Atlanta? An absolutely crushing, bitter conclusion that will leave a bad taste all winter for Mets fans.
And now? There is no guarantee the Mets will have this kind of success in 2023. The list of free agents who might depart is long. They might have to rebuild the entire bullpen and a good chunk of the starting rotation. The owner has deep pockets and is willing to spend — and he might have to take the Mets’ payroll to a record-setting level — but it’s going to be a busy, complicated offseason for the front office.
Notable free agents: SP Jacob deGrom (opt-out), SP Chris Bassitt ($19 million mutual option), SP Carlos Carrasco ($14 million club option), SP Taijuan Walker ($7 player option), RP Edwin Diaz, OF Brandon Nimmo, RP Adam Ottavino, RP Seth Lugo, RP Trevor May, RP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin
Yes, Steve Cohen’s wallet is going to get a major workout. DeGrom has two years and $63 million left on his contract, but he has already made it known he’s going to exercise his opt-out clause. Bassitt had a strong season, and this will be his one golden opportunity to enter free agency in his prime. Walker will get much more than $7 million in free agency. That means the Mets will almost have to pick up Carrasco’s option, if only to give them one certainty in the rotation.
Trade candidates: 1B/DH Dominic Smith
Smith needs a change of scenery, but after going homerless and spending the second half in Syracuse, he might not bring anything in return and could be a non-tender candidate.
Extension candidates: Given the extensions given to young players, like Wander Franco, Michael Harris II and Julio Rodriguez, over the past year, let’s see if the Mets make a run at locking up Francisco Alvarez. They could also consider deals for Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, both eligible for free agency following the 2024 season.
1. Will deGrom be in a Mets uniform in 2023?
After dominating in his first seven starts when he finally returned in August, deGrom inexplicably scuffled his final four starts, losing three of them as he allowed 14 runs and six home runs in 21 innings. His fastball location lost its pinpoint accuracy and his slider lacked bite. Just a rough stretch for most pitchers, but a house of horrors given deGrom’s normal level. Still, that stretch is unlikely to sour the Mets’ view of the two-time Cy Young Award winner and even though he turns 35 next season, his stuff and control are still clearly the best in the game with 237 strikeouts and 19 walks over the past two seasons. The problem: Injuries have limited him to just 25 regular-season starts.
That makes any contract conjecture difficult, but one can surmise the Mets won’t be outbid — unless the front office thinks it’s a better baseball decision to spread that money to multiple players, given the holes the Mets will need to fill. Is Max Scherzer’s deal — three years, $130 million — in play? Scherzer certainly had a more recent track record of positive health than deGrom, but he was also two years older with more miles on his arm. The Rangers, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs are four teams with need and payroll room who could be in on deGrom.
2. Who will be in the starting rotation?
It’s not just deGrom, but also Bassitt and Walker who will almost certainly test the free agent waters. It’s not exactly replacing three-fifths of a rotation given that deGrom made only 11 starts, but if Bassitt and Walker sign elsewhere, you’re talking about 59 combined starts and a 3.45 ERA. Bassitt, in particular, was a key cog in 2022, throwing 181⅔ innings that ranked tied for 22nd in the majors.
Internal options include David Peterson, who posted a 3.86 ERA as a starter with 110 strikeouts in 91 innings. He’s a good pitcher and almost certainly penciled in already, perhaps in Walker or Carrasco’s spot, as the Mets will need somebody who isn’t yet making big money. A healthy Taylor Megill would help. He came blazing out of the gate, with three scoreless starts in April, but then pitched just 19⅓ innings the rest of the season because of a shoulder strain. He returned to pitch in relief in September, but then landed on the injured list again before the playoffs. Williams also made nine spot starts and could return in a long-man/spot-starter role again.
There isn’t much in the way of prospect help in the upper minors, so the Mets will have to secure depth in free agency — and it won’t hurt to have Cohen’s checkbook available. Of course, it becomes a tactical game of chess as well: If you wait, say, for deGrom to make his decision, you might lose out on other free agents. Remember last offseason, with the lockout looming, the Mets acted quickly, signing Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar before the Dec. 1 shutdown date. If you’re looking to replace deGrom, the top free agent starters include Carlos Rodon (if he opts out), Martin Perez, Tyler Anderson, Jameson Taillon and Clayton Kershaw. He’s not a top starter at this point, but a reunion with Noah Syndergaard might be fun.
3. How will they fix the bullpen?
The bullpen was OK, finishing 10th in the majors in ERA — although given how good Diaz was, the depth was a little lacking. The problem: The top relievers in innings pitched (Ottavino, Lugo, Diaz and Williams) are all free agents, as is May. That’s five critical arms the Mets will need to re-sign or replace. Diaz made $10 million in 2022 and given his dominant season, he’ll get a big raise in free agency. Liam Hendriks received a four-year, $53 million deal with the White Sox in 2021. Raisel Iglesias’ four-year deal with the Angels entering 2022 averages $14.5 million per season. Diaz will get more than either of those two, coming off a season in which he struck out more than 50% of the batters he faced.
Collectively, those five Mets relievers made nearly $30 million in 2022. If the Mets keep the budget for the top of the bullpen at that level, they’ll need some young pitchers to step up or gamble on some low-cost veterans. The potential replacement options for Diaz might include Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Taylor Rogers. Some trades here are certainly a possibility.