The Same, Same Syndrome: Did the predictable thing happen to ex-Oilers Bear, Jones and Benning?

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What is the predictable thing when it comes to NHL d-men as they head into their hockey prime? What can we generally expect with them from ages 22 to 28?

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That they will remain pretty much the same player. That unless injury hits hard, their game isn’t going to collapse. But even if they work super smart and super hard, it’s unlikely they’re going to advance from the third-pairing to the first-pairing.

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I say this based on my back-of-the-envelope survey of d-men either developed within the Oilers organization since 1979 or traded in or out of the organization between the ages of 22 and 28, ages when they’re still arguably maturing. as players.

We’re all struck by sudden improvement in such players, a d-man like Jeff Petry leaving Edmonton at age 27 and becoming a dominant d-man in Montreal, or Denis Grebeshkov leaving the Oilers and seeing his game crater, or Craig Muni, Jason Smith and, most recently, Cody Ceci arriving in Edmonton and suddenly having their games blossom.

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These sudden changes in a player’s development leave a huge impression on us. We talk about such happening for years, even decades. But the most likely thing is that a top d-man is going to remain one, whether he’s starring in Edmonton or is moved out to Pittsburgh, as was seen with Paul Coffey. And the most likely thing is that a third-pairing d-man at 23 or 24 is going to remain one at 25, 26 and 27, and that the best he can do is carve out a long career in that role.

I call this the Same, Same Syndrome.

And this most likely thing appears to be happening now with recently exited Oilers Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, and Matt Benning..

Each of these players showed glimmers of Top 4 potential in Edmonton.

Each had a faction of Edmonton fans firmly in their corner, arguing with great spit and ear-splitting volume that the Oilers were making a massive mistake in giving up on the player.

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And it could well be that before it’s all over, Bear, Jones or even Benning will emerge as a true Top 4 or even Top 2 d-man on an NHL team.

But the most likely bet is that they’ll stick it out as bottom-pairing players, that or fade out of the league.

When we look at Oilers d-men who have arrived or left Edmonton in early or mid-NHL career, we see a great many of them stayed in the same role they had in whatever NHL city they played in. Norm MacIver was an excellent d-man in Edmonton, then an excellent one in Ottawa, until injury derailed his career. Same goes with Coffey, Reijo Ruotsalainen, Steve Smith, Roman Hamrlik, and Ryan Whitney, good-to-outstanding players wherever they played, as long as they were healthy.

The same held true with defensive d-men like Adam Larsson, Luke Richardson, Jeff Beukeboom and Bryan Marchment.

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And the same held true with numerous fringe and third-pairing d-men as well, players like Taylor Chorney, Chris Joseph, Geoff Smith, Brandon Davidson, Martin Marincin, and Eric Gryba.

A handful of d-men did get better results elsewhere, players like Petry, Jan Hejda, Dan McGillis and Greg DeVries. And a handful saw their games slip either a bit or drastically, never quite reaching the heights they had reached in Edmonton (with injury often playing a major role).

But most were in that “same, same” category, the same here as they were before they got here, and about the same after they left.

Bear saw his time-on-ice slip a bit in Carolina, from 17:58 per game in his last Edmonton season to 16:05 with the Canes.

Jones saw his time-on-ice go up a bit, from 13:36 in his final Oilers to 16:43 in his first Blackhawks season, an improvement but still putting him in third-pairing d-man territory.

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Benning, after showing such promise in the 2017 playoffs, has settled into a decided third-pairing role in Nashville, playing 16:20 per game each year for the past two seasons.

I’m hopeful that at age 28, Brett Kulak will take as big a step up as Cody Ceci did in Edmonton last year, but the saner expectation is for the same, same.

He’ll be a third-pairing d-man again this year. The same goes for Jones and Bear as they continue in their NHL careers.

Again, one of Kulak, Bear or Jones could indeed suddenly grab a spot in the Top 4 on his team and hold it for years. But that would be something of an exception to the general rule.

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