The Texas Rangers made a few moves this offseason. Texas had one big goal in mind when it came to improving the team: pitching, pitching, and more pitching.
The Rangers brought back southpaw Martin Perez on the qualifying offer. The veteran lefty had a career renaissance with the Rangers in 2022, pitching to a 2.89 ERA and a career-high 169 strikeouts.
Additionally, Texas brought in Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney on two-year deals. Both pitchers bring stability to the middle of the rotation for a team looking to compete in 2023.
And then, there’s the big fish. The Rangers signed former New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom to a five-year, $185 million contract. deGrom is a future Hall of Famer and looks to be a force at the top of the rotation for the next few years.
Out of these moves, which one carries the most risk for the AL West club? Which move is the biggest gamble of them all? Here is our pick for the riskiest move made by the Texas Rangers this MLB offseason.
Texas Rangers riskiest move: Jacob deGrom
Sure, this probably doesn’t come as a surprise to many. The only move that could rival this in terms of risk is Martin Perez given the nearly $20 million salary he’ll make in 2023. But that’s a one-year contract, which mitigates the risk a lot.
For deGrom, the risk is great for a few reasons. First is age, as the former Mets ace is 34 years of age. He is not getting any younger, and the five-year lifespan of this contract will take him through his age 40 season, pending a club option.
Perhaps going hand in hand with his age is his injury history. deGrom has not pitched a full MLB season since 2019. In 2021, he suffered a partial tear of his UCL that ended his season while not requiring surgery.
In 2022, he missed time with a shoulder injury. He returned midseason, though, and did help the Mets make a run at the postseason, although they failed to win their division.
FanGraphs’ ZiPS system has an interesting projection for the new Rangers ace. deGrom, according to their projections, is slated to throw 550 innings throughout the life of the contract. And that number factors in injuries.
And yes, the reason the Rangers are taking this risk is obvious for all to see. When healthy, there is no better pitcher in all of baseball than Jacob deGrom.
From 2014 to 2019, deGrom pitched to a combined 2.62 ERA with 1255 strikeouts in 1101.2 innings pitched. Even in an injury-shortened 2021 season, he was elite. He pitched to a 1.08 ERA and 149 strikeouts in 92 innings.
deGrom is undeniably one of the most elite pitchers in all of baseball when healthy. But that’s the thing. Can deGrom stay healthy? Can he pitch a full season and if so, can he maintain the high bar he set in New York?
Is deGrom a better investment than say Justin Verlander would have been? Verlander signed with the Mets as deGrom’s replacement at the Winter Meetings.
While Verlander did pitch the 2022 season after essentially missing two full seasons, he has a better track record health-wise. And furthermore, Verlander was absolutely dominant in 2022.
The new Mets ace pitched to a sparkling 1.75 ERA and 185 strikeouts en route to the AL Cy Young award. He then went on to win the World Series with the Houston Astros.
The Rangers obviously don’t mind the injury risk. However, their not minding it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. And for a $185 million price tag, the risk should be ever-present in their minds. Even if the reward is too good to pass up.
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