The NFL playoffs are two weeks away, and the races are shaping up to be quite the theater. Around this time last year, I found that the Cincinnati Bengals had value in winning the AFC at +900, and they had one of the most historic in recent NFL playoff memory. Here’s to hoping that happens again for us.
My NFL futures strategy isn’t very aggressive, but I tend to think the favorites get a little too much love for the uncertainty that this league presents week in and week out. I’m not going to try and squeak out small edges my model presents (Dolphins and Chargers) because the portfolio can get a little messy. But maybe the most important part of betting futures is that price shopping is critical. The futures market can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, so shop around as a lot of the longshots are not likely to get us to the window, so when they do, you maximize your return.
All odds are from BetMGM and update live. Bet odds lock when article publishes.
We’ll update this story with any other Super Bowl or NFL Playoffs bets as the season continues.
The Jaguars offense has been rolling during the second half of the season, and while their home-field advantage isn’t much, if they do manage to get into the playoffs, they’ll host a playoff game if they beat the Titans in Week 18. My model doesn’t have the Jaguars as a great or even a good team, but they’ve played themselves to an above-average rating, and with Trevor Lawrence playing how he’s played in the second half of the season, they can take down just about anyone in the AFC.
My simulations have the Jaguars winning the AFC 7.4% of the time.
Worst price to bet: +2000
Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC +900 (risk 0.25 units)
The Vikings have been deemed as frauds considering their poor point differential and not living up to their 12-3 record. But the Vikings are going to host a home playoff game and likely face Brock Purdy and the 49ers if they make it to the Divisional Round. I’m not saying that the Vikings are a juggernaut, but I think the market has dinged them too much because their point differential took a big hit. Two of their losses were by 17 and 37 points.
The Vikings are slightly underrated because Kirk Cousins knows that Justin Jefferson can get a first down when they’re in crunch time. Jefferson leads the NFL with 28.3 Expected Points Added in the 4th quarter and overtime this season, and it’s not close. If the Vikings need a big play, Jefferson gets it done, and no one has been able to stop it this season.
My simulations have the Vikings winning the NFC 16.8% of the time.
Worst price to bet: Vikings +650
(Photo of Justin Jefferson: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
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