The Winnipeg Jets are on a roll right now.
Winnipeg has won three in a row, eight of its last 10, and ended the weekend with the best record in the NHL Western Conference. The Jets are tied with Dallas for the best goal differential (+33) in the West and rank second in the entire NHL in goals against average. Only three teams (the Bruins, Maple Leafs, and Devils) have won more games in regulation in 2022-23.
All of these points to the Jets being a legitimate contender in the wide-open Western Conference, and yet there are seven teams with shorter odds to win the West.
Why?
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For one, the NHL just doesn’t attract the type of betting handle that other sports do in the United States. In other words, if a team in the NFL or NBA went on a similar type of run to Winnipeg’s, money would pour into the market, and oddsmakers would adjust.
That just won’t happen as quickly in the NHL, especially with a small-market team that had very little market support before the season.
Another reason the market is sour on the Jets compared to their record is that the common narrative around the team is that it is too reliant on goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. And while Hellebuyck has been fantastic for Winnipeg this season, the Jets are more than just an all-world netminder.
The Jets may not dominate the puck at five-on-five, but it’s not like they’re getting caved in like they did over the past few seasons. Winnipeg owns a 49.9 percent shot share, 50 percent expected goals rate and a 51 percent high-danger chance percentage on the season. In other words, the Jets basically turned the five-on-five battle into a coin flip and bet on Hellebuyck and their elite playmakers to be the difference.
That plan seems logical, considering the Jets have a terrific top-six with Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cole Perfetti, and Nikolaj Ehlers, plus No. 1 defenseman Josh Morrissey is having a standout season. Four of those players are averaging a point per game, and that doesn’t include Ehlers, who has been limited to just eight games this season due to injury.
The Ehlers injury is a keynote in this entire argument. Not only did the Jets have a terrific first half, but they did it without their best forward. With Ehlers in the fold, Winnipeg could click into another level down the stretch.
Betting on the NHL?
And maybe what stands out the most about the betting value on the Jets is that the Western Conference is wide open. The Avalanche were expected to be the runaway train out West, but injuries and inconsistent play have landed the Avs in a scrap just to get into the postseason. The Flames and Oilers — the two teams expected to put the most pressure on the Avs — have also been all over the place and are not sure things to make the postseason. That has completely opened up the path for a team like the Jets to pull a shocker.
Winnipeg’s rise to the top of the Central Division is not going unnoticed around the NHL, but it seems to be taking some time for the betting market to catch up.
On FanDuel, Winnipeg is still +1200 to win the West, and +3800 to win the Stanley Cup. Those prices are mighty hard to pass up.
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