Let the pillow fight begin.
Major League Baseball’s symbolic second half is going to be a mess, with 19 teams within five games of a playoff spot and 23 teams within seven games. (Mind you, only 30 teams exist).
Trades will be challenging, as the expanded playoffs and greater parity bring precious few well-defined sellers. A prolonged hot streak could quickly turn a disappointing team’s season into something special. (The Mets and Padres certainly hope so).
And the whole mess likely won’t be sorted out until the calendar turns to October.
“It’s easy to look at other teams having great starts to the season and feel like we’re further away than we are, but I really love where we’re at,” says Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette, whose club is tied with the Houston Astros for two of the American League wild card spots, yet is suddenly just seven games behind the Tampa Bay Rays, who are no longer running away with the East.
“We haven’t played our best baseball, but we’re still in the thick of things and we still have a shot at the division.”
With most of the 12 playoff spots likely turning on the slimmest of margins, USA TODAY Sports looks at five of the most pivotal players of the second half:
Rodon’s rotation mate, Nestor Cortes, made our preseason version of this list, and perhaps that was a jinx: Cortes posted a 5.16 ERA in 11 starts and is on the injured list with a shoulder strain.
Rodon has barely pitched at all: Multiple injuries shelved the Yankees’ $162 million man until he pitched 5⅓ innings Friday, striking out two. The Yankees can only hope that strikeout rate increases as Rodon builds up strength.
But at this point, Rodon need not be the dominant guy the Yankees thought they signed; staying healthy and performing consistently would suffice for now. The Yankees can go in so many different directions: They are a game behind the Blue Jays and Astros for a wild card berth. Just eight games behind the Rays – although vaulting the Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Rays for a division title seems unlikely.
And they’re just a game ahead of Boston in the race to stay out of the AL East cellar. So many outcomes, and Aaron Judge’s return, or lack thereof, would certainly have a huge impact. But with Judge’s status uncertain, pitching will matter even more.
BRAVES: All-Stars for MLB-best Braves, Strider and Elder couldn’t pitch more differently
Carlos Correa: A little help for the pitching
The Twins had two All-Star pitchers and could have had four or five, with starter Joe Ryan and relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax worthy to join teammates Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez in Seattle.
So why is Minnesota a .500 team?
Start with Correa, whose .299 OBP, .700 OPS and 92 adjusted OPS would all be career worsts.
Correa has been dealing with plantar fasciitis, which is certainly a hindrance, but he’s come nowhere near the production levels the Twins expected when they reunited with a six-year, $200 million deal made possible by two teams backing away from him over ankle concerns.
He’s also just one of many underperformers in the lineup.
DH Byron Buxton (.208/.300/.436), catcher Christian Vazquez (.210/.287/.265), right fielder Max Kepler (.207/.279/.409), outfielder Joey Gallo (.186/ .302/.462) — all have failed to meet expectations. And that’s without factoring in center fielder Michael A. Taylor (.217/.264/.403), a defensive wizard who’s now an everyday player to preserve Buxton’s health.
Yet none have Correa’s offensive track record, which includes a career 126 adjusted OPS, including a 137 mark in Minnesota last year.
The Twins are in a virtual tie with Cleveland for the AL Central lead. It will be a two-team race, with no chance at the wild card, and the Twins might be more likely to augment at the trade deadline rather than pare down a bit or engage in neutral transactions.
A viable Correa would likely have a bigger impact than a deadline boost.
Patrick Bailey: Bust a move
They are starting to use the b-word — Buster — around San Francisco, which is borderline blasphemy when the Giants’ most recent franchise catcher is not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame. But Patrick Bailey has been that good on both sides of the ball that taking Buster Posey’s name in vain isn’t as frowned upon as it was two months ago.
Now, to keep it up beyond the 40-game mark.
Bailey, 24, has produced 1.5 Wins Above Replacement in barely more than a month of game work and drawn universal raves from Giants pitchers. But it is his offense that the club may need the most.
Bailey’s .817 OPS and 121 adjusted OPS came at a time the Giants desperately needed an offensive sock. Now, Mike Yastrzemski is back. Mitch Haniger might return in August. But the Giants probably can’t afford the rookie valley into which fellow first-year man Casey Schmitt descended (.851 OPS in first 20 games, .356 OPS in next 30).
A fellow named Posey avoided such a rookie wall, posting an .862 OPS in 108 games in 2010, which ended with the first of three Giants World Series titles in five years. Nobody’s saying Bailey must do the same. But the Giants are at a pivot point — 2½ games out of the NL West lead, with a tenuous hold on a wild card spot.
If Bailey maintains his offensive pace, that alone won’t be cause to fire up the parade floats. But it will certainly help the Giants break away from the pack.
SECOND-HALF STROYLINES: All eyes on Shohei Ohtani, Angels before trade deadline
Speaking of rookie walls, Brown carried a 2.60 ERA through his first six starts, and a 5.01 ERA in 11 starts since May 14. Overall, he has a 4.89 ERA at Minute Maid Park.
That probably has to change.
Brown was a big part of the formula to quietly bid Justin Verlander goodbye. Another cog, Luis Garcia, succumbed to Tommy John surgery. Lance McCullers is out for the year, Jose Urquidy since April 30.
So the Astros turn to Brown and JP France and Brandon Bielak, and hope for the best. Brown can still be excellent on a given night — he gave up just three hits to the Dodgers two weeks ago — but it is consistency Houston needs.
If Brown looks rejuvenated coming out of the break, it will only put more pressure on a Rangers team trying to end the Astros’ West reign — only to see 4½ games shaved from their lead in two weeks.
Shohei Ohtani: Only so much to control
So much is uncontrollable for baseball’s greatest two-way player: He alone cannot place himself on the trading block and is powerless to block a trade.
But Ohtani will throw the first pitch of the second half for the Angels, and with that, there’s plenty within his control.
The Angels start the half with significant but not insurmountable deficits in the division (seven games) and wild card (five) races, this after playing much of the half in or adjacent to playoff position. A 32-home run man and an ace wrapped up in one will most certainly have the greatest impact on whether they can regain that mojo.
On a global scale, the most important factor is how well the Angels play in the first 10 days, if Ohtani and Co. can even create the impression they’re contenders, let alone recapture playoff positioning. How close must the Angels linger on Aug. 1 for owner Arte Moreno to say nah, we’re keeping him?
Ohtani winning a championship as a rent-a-player is a concept that will intoxicate the industry until the deadline. And he will have an outsize impact on whether that scenario will be avoided.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 5 most pivotal players for second half of 2023 MLB season