Bettors often learn the hard way. Last weekend produced more money line carnage than I can ever remember for an opening weekend, as four of the top five selections in the ESPN Eliminator Challenge all lost. That’s after a Week 1 in 2021 that saw an NFL record nine outright upsets. Sports are wonderful and exhilarating like that… but a big reason for these surprises is the overall unknown this early in the season. We think we have a general grasp of each team, but we barely do. The betting market only has data points carried over from last season. In a month or two, will the odds tighten up and things make more sense? Maybe. Week 2 can be tricky. On one hand, you have huge overreactions, and we can find value with a contrarian approach. On the other hand, oddsmakers are too stubborn and don’t react enough to what the openers taught us.
The Number You Need to Know
Since 2000, we have only seen 22 teams that lost their opener, still be favored by 7.5 points or more in Week 2, which averages out to about one per year. And we have a whopping four more poised for that scenario this Sunday.
Let’s start with the history. Those 22 teams were just 7-15 ATS, which indicates the market was slow to adjust. Now, it’s a small sample size, and 20 of those teams won, so it’s not like oddsmakers were completely wrong. Only two lost outright.
Our challenge is sniffing out the paper tigers — or which underdogs are being overlooked. And that’s where I begin. The Houston Texans are a team I plan to ride all season. I believe in quarterback Davis Mills, and coach Lovie Smith has them playing competent football, which is not something that could have been said in recent years. The concern is his old-school approach, and that probably cost him a win last weekend. Houston played way too conservatively with a 20-3 fourth-quarter lead and ultimately finished with a tie.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-10, 45)
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET, Empower Field at Mile High
Kezirian’s pick: Texans (+10)
I will gladly grab 10 points in Denver with the Broncos coming off a short week and an emotional loss that might have the entire locker room questioning new coach Nathaniel Hackett, following his controversial decision to kick a 64-yard field goal. Did you watch Monday Night Football at any point and think the Broncos should be a double-digit favorite next weekend?
Line Move of the Week
Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 42) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Kezirian’s pick: Bengals (-7)
The Bengals are another 0-1 team, and this line opened 7.5 points but now sits at -7. I actually think it’s more than justified, and I fully expect them to handle Dallas. The Bengals could obviously regress this season, as the Super Bowl hangover is well-documented, but I am still a believer. In fact, losing in overtime after squandering multiple opportunities to win, despite losing the turnover battle 5-0, is actually a positive sign. Simply, they would have likely won comfortably with only three turnovers, which are often considered more random than you would assume. One oddsmaker told me that he would have made the Bengals a 2.5-point road favorite, if Dak Prescott were healthy. The untrained eye might deduce the downgrade to Cooper Rush is worth five points but a move from 2.5 to 7.5 passes through key numbers of 3, 6 and 7. That’s a big move in the NFL betting world. With that being said, I don’t think it’s enough — and neither does ESPN FPI, which lines this game at 11.
Truthfully, oddsmakers dislike these situations. They prefer both teams at full strength because that is an easy point spread to determine. Instead, they now have to trust power ratings of players like Rush that are unproven and untested. The giant unknown makes them uneasy and feeling vulnerable… which I think is the case here.
Give me Cincy -7, even though sharp money came in on Dallas +8 and pushed the line lower. I like the idea of a playoff contender that’s motivated for its first win and has all the tools to exploit a mediocre Dallas defense and porous offensive line protecting a shaky backup QB. However, it’s worth noting that the Bengals are receiving the most lopsided action at most books — in the neighborhood of 90% of the money and tickets. However, the number has moved in the opposite direction, which indicates that the respected money is on the other side (Dallas).
Split Decisions
Every sportsbook differs a little bit, but for the most part, there is consistency with the distribution of tickets and money wagered on each game throughout the market. At Caesars Sportsbook, only five of the remaining 15 games have a majority of tickets and wagered on the same team in each matchup. If one team has more money wagered on it but the volume of tickets is on the other side, that typically means the recreational money is backing one team but the professional money is on the other.
One of the most notable splits comes on Sunday Night Football. 64% of the money is on Green Bay, and 67% of the tickets are on Chicago. The ticket distribution gauges volume, equating every wager the same. So, a $5 bet counts just as much as a $500 wager. The 67% for Chicago indicates the public is backing Chicago, but the respectable money is on Green Bay. That matches up with my intel, as I heard sharp money arrived on the Packers -8, and that caused oddsmakers to push the spread to -10.
Sharp Report
The house crushed it last week, which means the sharps did well, too. A lot of times their cards don’t look pretty, as they typically oppose the public with some ugly underdogs. However, this week they have a little bit of everything. It’s important to note that respected money moves the market. So, the numbers they grab typically are no longer available come Sunday morning.
Every single pro bettor is not on the same wager. Sometimes you will have respected money on both sides of a game, like we saw last week with USC and Stanford. However, it’s about tiers of sharps. Based on my intel, this is what I would say represents respected wagers throughout the week: Patriots (-1), Browns (-6), Commanders (+1.5), Jaguars (+3.5), Cowboys (+8), Raiders ( -3.5), Saints (+3) and Bills (-9.5).
Favorite Prop
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Kezirian’s pick: Brady to throw an INT (-113)
By now you’ve heard all about Tom Brady and his ‘Bayou Blunders’. New Orleans has won all four regular season meetings since Brady joined Tampa, and frankly, all were decided by more than one score. This Saints defense seems to have his numbers, and while I was impressed at times in last week’s win in Dallas, the Bucs still have offensive issues. It’s hard to win and cover as a road favorite, and now they have to do it back-to-back weeks with a crumbling offensive line? Sharp money grabbed the Saints +3, which I agree with, and I also really like the prop bet of Brady to throw an interception (-133). He’s done that in all four of those meetings for a total of eight picks.
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