After ripping through November and December, the Toronto Maple Leafs are going through a rough patch. And perhaps most concerning for Toronto fans is that a lot of the struggles stem from pedestrian goaltending.
After starting the season in great form, both Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov have fallen off over the last five weeks. Over his last eight starts, Murray has skated to an .895 save percentage and -1.67 goals saved above expected (GSAx), while Samsonov has posted an .898 save percentage and -1.61 GSAx in his six outings since Dec. 1.
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Things have been especially ugly since the return from the holiday break, as the Leafs have allowed 23 goals in their last five contests.
Detroit, which visits Toronto on Saturday night, is just not good enough defensively to keep this Maple Leafs offense at bay. Since Dec. 1 the Red Wings rank 26th in expected goals allowed and 30th in high-danger scoring chances conceded at 5-on-5. That doesn’t bode well against an offense that generates plenty of quality chances and has the scoring talent to finish them off.
Betting on the NHL?
The Leafs will likely be the team asked to do the heavy lifting to cash this Over, but with their goaltending in poor form, there’s every chance that the Red Wings can pot a few goals to get us to the window.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs pick: Over 6.5 goals (BetMGM)
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