Re-drafting the NHL class of 2021: Luke Hughes jumps to No. 1

Today we begin a week of looking back at some recent drafts. We start with the 2021 NHL Draft, and a look at how my ordering of the players has changed one year since that draft. There is still a ton of projection left for these players and I expect these rankings will change a lot in the coming years.

Evaluations are based mostly on prior seasons, so any new information from NHL training camps or the first few weeks of the season in other leagues has not been incorporated unless it was overwhelming.

For players to be eligible for this article, they need to have been drafted, and drafted during the 2021 NHL Draft.

TIER 1: Projected NHL All-Star

1. Luke Hughes, LHD (No. 4 pick)

The player who I think is the best from this draft won’t even be in the league until the spring, while most of the names below will be. I have Luke Hughes rated this highly due to his unique skill set and his great freshman season at Michigan. There are few players who have his high-end skating ability, with also being a 6-2 defenseman with legit offensive skill. He has the potential to be a true star in the NHL.

TIER 2: Projected bubble NHL All-Star and top-of-the-lineup player

2. Matty Beniers, C (No. 2 pick)
3. Owen Power, LHD (No. 1 pick)

Beniers and Power are both excellent two-way players who should be important for their NHL clubs this upcoming season. Beniers projects as a first-line center who can play against good players. Power is a mobile defenseman with a massive frame who also provides offense and should eat a ton of minutes for a long time.

TIER 3: Projected top-of-the-lineup player

4. Mason McTavish, C (No. 3 pick)
5. Dylan Guenther, RW (No. 9 pick)
6. Simon Edvinsson, LHD (No. 6 pick)
7. Kent Johnson, LW (No. 5 pick)

There’s nothing too surprising in this tier. I’m sure some would argue that McTavish could belong in Tier 2, and it would be a reasonable argument even if he’s on the bubble for me. All four of these players were top 10 picks and had great seasons, which keeps them among the top tier of players from their class.

TIER 4: Projected bubble top and middle-of-the-lineup player or quality starting goaltender

8. Cole Sillinger, C (No. 12 pick)
9. Brandt Clarke, RHD (No. 8 pick)
10. William Eklund, LW (No. 7 pick)
11. Olen Zellweger, LHD (No. 34 pick)
12. Jesper Wallstedt, G (No. 20 pick)
13. Wyatt Johnston, C (No. 23 pick)
14. Logan Stankoven, RW (No. 47 pick)
15. Matthew Knies, LW (No. 57 pick)

This part of the list is where we start to see real movement from draft day. The OHL and WHL MVPs respectively Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven are elevated into this group from the tier below a year ago at this time. Olen Zellweger is also a player on the rise after a fantastic season in the WHL, and Matthew Knies enters this discussion after a great freshman year at Minnesota. Cole Sillinger is also on the bubble of being in the top group of players after making the NHL at 18 and showing a real hard-to-play-against style that will make him a pain for opponents to deal with for a long time.

Brandt Clarke is probably going to be a point of division here. There will be people in the league who see him at 9 and think he’s either too high or too low. He’s a very talented offensive player and had a great camp with the Kings, but he also has some warts in his all-around play that make me cautious about putting him in a higher tier. If I told you I felt confident about his placement at any slot I would be lying.

TIER 5: Projected middle-of-the-lineup player or starting goaltender

16. Zachary Bolduc, LW (No. 17 pick)
17. Chaz Lucius, RW (No. 18 pick)
18. Brennan Othmann, LW (No. 16 pick)
19. Nikita Chibrikov, RW (No. 50 pick)
20. Matthew Coronato, RW (No. 13 pick)
21. Xavier Bourgault, RW (No. 22 pick)
22. Aatu Raty, C (No. 52 pick)
23. Janis Moser, LHD (No. 60 pick)
24. Carson Lambos, LHD (No. 26 pick)
25. Scott Morrow, RHD (No. 40 pick)
26. Joshua Roy, LW (No. 150 pick)
27. Zach Dean, C (No. 30 pick)
28. Fabian Lysell, RW (No. 21 pick)
29. Sebastian Cossa, G (No. 15 pick)
30. Kirill Kirsanov, LHD (No. 84 pick)
31. Oskar Olausson, RW (No. 28 pick)

The biggest movers into this group are Janis Moser, who played his way into an NHL spot albeit as an older draft pick. Scott Morrow’s great freshman season and Joshua Roy’s huge offensive year in the QMJHL elevates their prospect stock. Zachary Bolduc is the most intriguing player who could move into a higher tier. He has a ton of offensive talent and had a big year in the QMJHL. If he repeats that and lights up the World Juniors I could see a case to elevate him.

TIER 6: Projected to play NHL games

32. Corson Ceulemans, RHD (No. 25 pick)
33. Zack Ostapchuk, C (No. 39 pick)
34. Ryan Winterton, C (No. 67 pick)
35. Shai Buium, LHD (No. 36 pick)
36. Vincent Iorio, RHD (No. 55 pick)
37. Stanislav Svozil, LHD (No. 69 pick)
38. Colton Dach, C (No. 62 pick)
39. Justin Robidas, RW (No. 147 pick)
40. Dmitry Rashevsky, LW (No. 146 pick)
41. Olivier Nadeau, RW (No. 97 pick)
42. Zachary L’Heureux, LW (No. 27 pick)
43. Daniil Chayka, LHD (No. 38 pick)
44. Ilya Fedotov, LW (No. 43 pick)
45. Sean Behrens, LHD (No. 61 pick)
46. Ethan Del Mastro, LHD (No. 105 pick)
47. Isaac Rosen, LW (No. 14 pick)
48. Carter Mazur, RW (No. 70 pick)
49. Tyler Boucher, RW (No. 10 pick)
50. Fedor Svechkov, C (No. 19 pick)
51. Francesco Pinelli, C (No. 42 pick)
52. Brett Harrison, C (No. 85 pick)
53. Nolan Allan, LHD (No. 32 pick)
54. Riley Kidney, C (No. 63 pick)
55. Jack Peart, LHD (No. 54 pick)
56. Aleksi Heimosalmi, RHD (No. 44 pick)
57. Ryker Evans, LHD (No. 35 pick)
58. Mackie Samoskevich, RW (No. 24 pick)
59. Danila Klimovich, RW (No. 41 pick)
60. Zakhar Bardakov, LW (No. 203 pick)
61. Samuel Helenius, C (No. 59 pick)
62. Ville Koivunen, RW (No. 51 pick)
63. Sasha Pastujov, LW (No. 66 pick)
64. Chase Stillman, RW (No. 29 pick)
65. Ryan Ufko, RHD (No. 115 pick)
66. Ilya Safonov, C (No. 172 pick)
67. Ryder Korczak, C (No. 75 pick)
68. Dmitri Kuzmin, LHD (No. 82 pick)
69. Nikita Novikov, LHD (No. 188 pick)
70. Tristan Broz, LW (No. 58 pick)
71. Daniil Pylenkov, LHD (No. 196 pick)

Some players of note who are pushing up and could well be in a higher tier from now are Zack Ostapchuk and Ryan Winterton. Ostapchuk was great in the playoffs for Vancouver, showing a fast, competitive game with size and some offense. Winterton was a big part of a top CHL club and has legit skills for higher levels. Both could be part of Canada’s U20 club this winter.

TIER 7: Has a chance to play NHL games

72. Josh Doan, RW (No. 37 pick)
73. Roman Schmidt, RHD (No. 96 pick)
74. Josh Bloom, LW (No. 95 pick)
75. Logan Mailloux, RHD (No. 31 pick)
76. Tyson Hinds, LHD (No. 76 pick)
77. Jakub Demek, C (No. 128 pick)
78. Evan Nause, LHD (No. 56 pick)
79. Oliver Kapanen, C (No. 64 pick)
80. Cole Huckins, C (No. 64 pick)
81. Jakub Brabenec, LW (No. 102 pick)
82. Prokhor Poltapov, LW (No. 33 pick)
83. Luca Munzenberger, LHD (No. 90 pick)
84. Arseny Sergeev, G (No. 205 pick)
85. Aleksandr Kisakov, LW (No. 53 pick)
86. Cameron Whynot, LHD (No. 89 pick)
87. Guillaume Richard, LHD (No. 101 pick)
88. Ty Voit, RW (No. 153 pick)
89. Dylan Duke, LW (No. 126 pick)
90. William Trudeau, LHD (No. 113 pick)
91. Ayrton Martino, LW (No. 73 pick)
92. Aidan Hreschuk, LHD (No. 94 pick)
93. Redmond Savage, C (No. 114 pick)
94. William Stromgren, LW (No. 45 pick)
95. Caedan Bankier, C (No. 86 pick)
96. Ethan Samson, RHD (No. 174 pick)
97. Samu Salminen, C (No. 68 pick)
98. Niko Huuhtanen, RW (No. 224 pick)
99. Eetu Liukas, LW (No. 157 pick)
100. Andrei Buyalski, LW (No. 92 pick)
101. Gannon Laroque, RHD (No. 103 pick)
102. Matvei Petrov, LW (No. 180 pick)
103. Liam Dower-Nilsson, C (No. 134 pick)
104. Ty Murchinson, LHD (No. 158 pick)
105. Francesco Arcuri, LW (No. 175 pick)
106. Simon Knack, LW (No. 179 pick)
107. Simon Robertson, RW (No. 71 pick)
108. Brent Johnson, RHD (No. 80 pick)
109. Jack Matier, RHD (No. 124 pick)
110. Jackson Blake, RW (No. 109 pick)
111. Jacob Melanson, RW (No. 131 pick)
112. Dmitri Kostenko, RHD (No. 87 pick)
113. Owen McLaughlin, C (No. 206 pick)
114. Jack Bar, RHD (No. 138 pick)
115. Jack Beck, LW (No. 168 pick)
116. Conner Roulette, LW (No. 111 pick)
117. Ty Gallagher, RHD (No. 217 pick)
118. Connor Kelley, RHD (No. 204 pick)
119. Samu Tuomaala, RW (No. 46 pick)
120. Haakon Hanelt, LW (No. 151 pick)
121. Benjamin Gaudreau, G (No. 81 pick)
122. Artem Grushnikov, LHD (No. 48 pick)
123. Kirill Tankov, C (No. 218 pick)
124. Victor Stjernborg, C (No. 108 pick)
125. Carl Lindbom, G (No. 222 pick)
126. Alexei Kolosov, G (No. 78 pick)
127. Ben Rogers, RHD (No. 49 pick)

(Illustration: Samuel Richardson / The Athletic; photos: Getty Images)