NFL season kicks off soon: here are the teams CODE Bet is looking at to go OVER or UNDER their team win predictions
Since the NFL went to a 17-game season last year, pre-season team wins over/unders have gotten harder to predict: teams that you could easily call (cos we’re being nice) ‘bottom-of-the-barrel’ last year – like Detroit, Jacksonville, Houston, NY Jets and the Giants – still scraped their way to 3-4 wins.
AND. Despite all of the NFL’s off-season turbulence, with players moving around like rice on a snare drum, most oddsmakers’ projected win totals land squarely in ‘huh: that’s pretty feasible’ territory.
But that’s why they play the games.
It also means betting pre-season team over/unders means searching for teams you like to outstrip expectations, or, conversely, underperform. Which is awesome fun.
Right off the bat, a few stick out:
Broncos OVER 8.5 Wins
Bet against Russell Wilson at your own peril. This Broncos team was full of talent and built to win: all they needed was a quarterback who was half decent. Enter Wilson. After years of Seahawks fans imploring their team to ‘let Russ cook’, he now gets a chance with a loaded offense, a savvy defense, and a coach who will let Russ be Russ. One of the easiest Overs going.
Jaguars UNDER 6.5 Wins
Doug Pederson is a good coach. I’m not sure he’s THAT good of a coach. And sure, ‘Not Being Urban Meyer’ might be worth +4 wins in Jacksonville. But even with the #1 pick in the draft, paying through the nose for WR Christian Kirk and giving Trevor Lawrence more tools to succeed, this is still a threadbare roster with plenty of questions. And most of those questions involve looking at almost every position group and thinking, ‘Are any of these guys good?’ The offense will be greatly improved with the return of Travie Etienne and James Robinson, and signings like Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones, so they’ll definitely be better… just HOW much better is the question. The proof will be in the pudding, but even looking at their schedule (tied for 5th easiest) that pudding still tops out at 6 wins. Say it with us: Below!
Eagles OVER 9.5 Wins
Last year Philly went 9-8… and all they did this past off-season was get substantially better. Like. REAL substantially. Now, history tells us that the first second you start to trust them, the Eagles will definitely hurt your feelings in a bad, bad way… but this team plays in a weak NFC East division, added AJ Brown, gets another year of Nick’ Hot Sauce’ Sirianni as coach, has the 3rd easiest season schedule and *should* be better across the board. Should. SHOULD. (Dammit. It’s a trap isn’t it?)
Seahawks UNDER 5.5 Wins
Russell Wilson used to be their quarterback. Drew Lock is now their quarterback. You sir, Drew Lock, are no Russell Wilson. The Seahawks weren’t a good team last year, they’re not better this year. Despite the presence of Pete Carroll, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, this team looks worryingly thin. Under it is.
Falcons UNDER 4.5 Wins
They were bad last year. They’re even worse this year. Like, the Falcons won 7 games last year, but they were a BAD 7 wins, if that makes sense? And now with Matt Ryan in Indy, Kyle Pitts is the only veteran weapon on offense that *checks notes* ATLANTA STARTING QB MARCUS MARIOTA has? AND their 29th-ranked defense from last year didn’t really improve? AND they have a Top 10 hardest schedule? Yes. That under? Looks pretty good.
Vikings OVER 8.5 Wins
New coach, same old Vikes? It feels like this might be a boom or bust year with new coach Kevin O’Connell. Even with the re-up-and-maintain defensive approach they took this off-season and all the offensive talent this team has – Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and KJ Osbourn – it’s still Kirk Cousins throwing them the ball. BUT. That’s so much talent. Now, without Mike Zimmer calling the shots and four games against NFC North ‘rivals’ like Detroit and Chicago, after a few Minnesota-y hiccups, their basement should fall around 9 wins, with significant upside. Which means, despite them being Minnesota and likely trying to really Minnesota this up, they should still hit the Over.
ONE TO TAKE WITH A GRAIN OF SALT
Chiefs OVER/UNDER 10.5 – OVER
Despite trading Tyreek Hill away, despite all the questions around the defense, last time we checked, Andy Reid is still KC’s coach, and Patrick Mahomes their quarterback. The Chiefs have gone over that 10.5 win number in each of the seasons that has been the case… but, between their impressively tough schedule (the toughest in the NFL) and the gauntlet of their own division, it might be tough this year. But still, with an upgraded offensive line and multiple new weapons at receiver, it feels like after a slow start the Chiefs will still top 11 wins.
THE ONE THAT STICKS OUT THE MOST
Ravens OVER 9.5 Wins
After injury plagued 2021 where they lost seemingly every running back who suited up for them AND their QB, former MVP Lamar Jackson, the Ravens scuffled to an 8-9 record, and missed the playoffs… but last year the Ravens ALSO started 8-3 … going 6-1 in games decided by 7pts or less. They finished the year 0-6, losing 5 of those by 3 or fewer points. So which team are they? If healthy, closer to the 8-3 team, and with additions to the defense (like former Saint Marcus Williams and 1st round draftee Kyle Hamilton) they will right the ship. They still have a dearth of receiving options outside of tight end Mark Andrews, but John Harbaugh’s teams tend to find a way. Weirdly, they start the season with four straight games against the entire AFC East, but luckily for them, the AFC East doesn’t look as imposing as other years. Plus the other division they face for a further four games is the so-so NFC South, PLUS their own AFC North division has a couple of BIG question marks (the Steelers and Browns). Their ‘extra’ games are against the Jags, Giants and Broncos, which isn’t exactly a murderer’s row. The path is there for the Ravens to get to 10 wins: so the Over is the play.
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