Rating the job security of all 32 NFL head coaches for 2022

Let me start by saying that this is the absolute worst assignment of the year, and I take no pleasure in it. Coaching staffs are not just made up of head coaches, the people we shake our fists at and blame for every problem and the people who accept a healthy, seven-figure salary in exchange for taking such criticisms. Coaching staffs are made up of people who work exceptionally, mind-bogglingly long hours. They are people who don’t get to see their families for most of the year. People who put the rest of their lives on hold to try to climb the ladder in what is, undoubtedly, one of the most cutthroat, chaotic and political businesses in our American ecosystem. People who sometimes have to accept the best coaches end up toeing the line of high school fields, and the worst ones end up coordinating professional defenses for 10 times the money, because they are friends with the right person.

And their jobs are not made any easier by reading stuff like this, which can often add paranoia and cynicism to a fold that already includes sleep deprivation and whatever nervous questions they’ll get from family members wondering whether they’ll have to pack up and move again at season’s end.

To those folks, we apologize.

Another division title with the Cowboys might not be enough to save McCarthy’s job.

Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

The fact of the matter is that the NFL coaching machine is a big business. As we saw with the Dolphins’ tampering scandal, some owners will do whatever it takes to secure the coach they want, and they care little about the effect it has on their employees. Many of the people whose job it is to help place head coaches into vacancies are already looking at a layout similar to the one we’ll present here.

I’ll be breaking the non-first-year coaches into three categories:

IN QUESTIONwhich means it’s reasonably fair to wonder whether the team will make a change.
IF THE SEASON GOES HAYWIREwhich means if the team performs in a kind of egregious, out-loud bad kind of way, we’re going to start talking about a coaching change, although it might not happen.
NOTHING TO SEE HERE, which should be self-explanatory. You’ll see Bill Belichick there.

In each of these categories, there’s going to be some wiggle room as evidenced by the blurbs. There is certainly a fringe tier in each category, the coaches who could quickly find themselves relegated elsewhere.

On the bright side, one conversation I had regarding the carousel in 2023 is that it should be less active. There are 10 “new” head coaches in ’22. There are a handful of coaches from last year who performed well. And teams that know they’re out of the Sean Payton sweepstakes may be sitting on their hands.

All that said, life changes. Who knew in early January (outside of a few folks) this might finally be the year the Payton-to-the-booth rumors were true? Who knew that Raiders owner Mark Davis would have no choice but to cut ties with his beloved Jon Gruden?

Rating the job security of all 32 NFL head coaches for 2022

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