Raiders’ NFL Draft debate: Quarterback of the future or defensive stud?

Some Raiders fans are happy that their team is winning again. Especially in such exciting fashion as Sunday’s overtime win in Seattle. Some of you wanted to pile up the losses, secure the high draft pick and take a quarterback in the first round for the first time in 16 years.

Whether the 4-7 Raiders pick in the top five or top 10 … or (holds breath) top 15, it’s not an overstatement to call this a franchise-altering decision. Entering Monday night’s game, the Raiders hold the No. 10 slots in next April’s draft. If that stands, should they take a quarterback or a defensive stud? The Athletic’s Raiders beat writers Tashan Reed and Vic Tafur couldn’t come to a consensus on how to handle it, so they laid out two potential paths and left it for The Athletic‘s NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler to render a verdict.

Reed: Make a change at quarterback

Derek Carr has been one of the better starting quarterbacks in the league for most of his career but, whether it’s fair or not, signal callers are ultimately judged for whether they’re able to engineer postseason success. If the Raiders end up with a top-10 pick, it would mean he has guided them to just two playoff appearances and no playoff wins in nine seasons. That usually results in a team, especially one with a new regime, deciding they need to make a long-term upgrade.

The Raiders could theoretically keep Carr while adding a highly-drafted rookie quarterback, but that has the potential to create an unnecessarily messy situation. It’s easy to see that route straining the relationship between Carr and the front office and leading to players in the locker room becoming split over the two quarterbacks. Additionally, the $33 million the Raiders are set to pay Carr in 2023 would be better spent improving the roster. And, because this would mean they plan to part ways with him at some point, anyway, they might as well start developing their future signal caller right away.

Carr has a very tradable contract. His average annual salary of $40.5 million across the final three years of his deal ranks seventh among quarterbacks, but he’ll likely fall down that list as eligible quarterbacks land bigger deals moving forward. If the Raiders were to deal him before June 1, 2023, then he would have a dead-money hit of just $5.625 million. There would be plenty of quarterback-needy teams in the market for his services if he were to become available. Carr has a no-trade clause in his contract, but that typically becomes something players use to dictate where they go rather than block being traded altogether. And if the worst-case scenario emerged of Carr deciding to take that route or threatening to retire, then the Raiders could simply release him and would take the same dead money hit.

So, if the Raiders split with Carr, who should they replace him with?

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is the No. 1 option. His average speed, lack of size — he’s generously listed at 6-foot, 195 pounds — and pedestrian athleticism will scare off some, but he more than makes up for it elsewhere. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner has a career 65.6 percent completion rate, an average of 8.7 yards per attempt and 75 touchdown passes compared to just 12 interceptions.

Young is adept at ball placement, reading defenses, navigating the pocket, throwing with anticipation and protecting the football. He’s shown he can handle running a complex system. He doesn’t have Patrick Mahomes-tier arm talent, but he has a strong arm and, just as importantly, is extremely accurate and has consistent mechanics. He’s effectively passing the ball at all three levels of the field and both between and outside of the hashes. He’s remarkably calm under pressure — both in terms of literal pressure in the pocket and high-leverage situations — and has a knack for making clutch plays when his team needs it most. He’s just an overall complete quarterback.

Unless the Raiders land the No. 1 pick, though, there’s no guarantee that Young will be on the board. The best fallback option is Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. He has more of the prototypical build at 6-foot-3 and 218 pounds, but while he’s not immobile, he’s not as fast, athletic or willing to use his legs as Young. He’s also not as creative when things start to break down around him and doesn’t throw to open targets in the same way Young does. The trade-off is that he’s been more efficient: He has a career completion rate of 69.3 percent, is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, with 81 passing touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. He’s another prospect with a good arm, not a great one, but he can still make all the necessary throws. Stroud has the best weapons in college football, a pretty good offensive line and an elite play caller. So it’s fair to question whether he’s more of a product of his system, but he has the tools to translate his success to the next level.

There are other intriguing quarterbacks in this draft class. Kentucky’s Will Levis, Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Florida’s Anthony Richardson are intriguing options, but I wouldn’t bet on them being capable Year 1 starters — especially not Hooker after his torn ACL. If Young and Stroud are gone by the time the Raiders are on the board, then they should look to another position.

Tafur: Take the best defensive player available

I get all the arguments for drafting a possible franchise quarterback and I have long wondered if Carr wouldn’t be better off with a fresh start somewhere else. (I know Carr has hinted he might retire and be a pastor if the Raiders decide to cut ties, but I think he is too big of a competitor to just walk away. Plus, he has to be a little curious about how a non- dysfunctional franchise runs.)

Carr has not won a playoff game in nine seasons as the Raiders starter and while he owns some of that, he has also watched regime after regime make bad draft picks and worse free-agent signings. And he has never had a good defense or the privilege of often working with a short field after his defense forced a turnover (the 2016 defense was mediocre and the Raiders made the playoffs.) The Raiders had a bottom-seven defense in points and/ or yards allowed in 2014, 2018, 2020, 2021 and this season.

Let’s assume that Carr and play caller Josh McDaniels are better with a year together under their belts and a healthy Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow flanking Davante Adams next season. Draft one offensive lineman in the first three rounds and sign another starter in free agency. And then focus on the defense.

There are three instant impact defensive players in the draft who the Raiders can build around Maxx Crosby (and to a lesser extent Nate Hobbs). Two of them play for Georgia.

Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. out of Alabama should be the first pick in the draft, but teams always reach for quarterbacks so maybe he falls to second or third. He has twitch, speed, power and bend. Anderson had 17 1/2 sacks last season and has 10 this year despite getting more attention. He is also stout against the run.

I know what you’re saying… the Raiders already have Chandler Jones. Shhh.

Georgia had five defensive players selected in the first round last year, and Jalen Carter was their best player on that championship team. The defensive tackle is a 6-foot-3, 300-pound bowling ball with good feet, including a great first step, and has the agility and powerful hands to shed tacklers. Some scouts project him as having a bigger impact pressuring the quarterback than on running plays, but Carter locates the ball well and is a playmaker who pays rent in the backfield. He would be my second-favorite value in the draft if not for …

Kelee Ringo is a physical cornerback who hasn’t backed down from covering some of the best receivers in college football. He is 6-foot-2 and long and can handle tight ends, but has enough speed (4.3 / 40) to stick with anybody. My favorite things about him are his confidence and ball skills. When is the last time the Raiders had a real playmaker in the secondary? Plus, if they win three to four more games, he should still be in their draft range.

Brugler’s verdict: Take the best non-QB available

Tashan and Vic both laid out compelling cases. While I certainly understand the idea of ​​moving on from Carr, the grass isn’t always greener, especially if the Raiders are hoping to find an upgrade via the draft. There are a lot of split opinions on these quarterback prospects around the league. Young’s size makes him a complete outlier and some teams won’t be interested in drafting that type of chance with a top-five pick. Stroud is an accurate passer, but his struggles to create out of structure are why he isn’t universally loved among scouts. And while Levis has the tools, there are inconsistent elements to his game that create doubt that he will ever fully realize his potential.

How the Raiders feel about these quarterbacks is obviously the unknown variable. However, if the Raiders are picking in the Nos. 3 to 10 range in the first round in April, there is no guarantee their top option at quarterback — or even their second-best option — will be available for them. I think the Raiders would be better off making another run with Carr next season while also considering a developmental quarterback on Day 2 (Richardson, Hooker, Nix).

My vote goes towards drafting the best available player (outside of quarterback), either offense or defense. One player won’t drastically alter the win-loss record, but adding difference-making talent will help steer the ship in the right direction. If Anderson or Carter are available, they should be the pick, for all the reasons Vic mentioned. Either would immediately upgrade the defensive line and both have a chance to develop into a top-five player at their respective position by the end of their rookie contract.

If both are off the board, there are two other prospects who deserve consideration. At only 19 years old, Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu is one of the best young talents in college football. He has outstanding body control, movement skills and core strength. His coaches also rave about the way he works and learns. Fashanu can be a cornerstone player for the Raiders, regardless of whose blindside he is protecting.

The other option I want to mention is a Clemson pass rusher, which might give some Las Vegas fans PTSD from the Clelin Ferrell selection in 2019. But Myles Murphy is a much better prospect with the traits actually deserving of a top pick. For a lot of the same reasons why Travon Walker went No. 1 overall last year, Murphy has the freaky athletic profile to go with his strong, long frame to be disruptive.

(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic; photo of Bryce Young: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images; photo of Jalen Carter: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire)