Last season was a special one for Allen, who paced the NFL in several Next Gen Stats categories, including downfield passing touchdowns (24 of 10-plus air yards), outside-the-tackle-box passing touchdowns (12) and TD passes on the run (12). He also became the only quarterback in NFL history to notch at least six rushing touchdowns for a fourth straight year.
This season brings one major change for the MVP front-runner, though, with QB coach-turned-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey assuming play-calling duties in the wake of Brian Daboll’s departure to the Giants. For many quarterbacks, this would have the net impact of lowering win share, but for Allen, the figure went up. Why? Because of his exceptional higher-pressure situation stats, which have been predictive for success under a new coordinator when it comes to past signal-callers with a profile and experience similar to Allen’s. Last season, Allen led the league in fourth quarter and overtime completion percentage (70.8), and his 18 TD strikes on third/fourth down were tied (with Tom Brady) for the most in the NFL last season. Allen easily leads all quarterbacks with 31 rushing touchdowns since entering the league in 2018. He also ran for 6.3 yards per carry last season, which was tops in the NFL.
My favorite computer vision metric for Allen: He threw seven of the 11 highest-velocity passes in the NFL last season. This isn’t a super predictive stat, but it’s a fun one to throw in as the cherry on top. Allen has an absolute cannon.