Power ranking NFL offenses: Which teams are fantasy GMs drafting the most players from?

Let’s use data from the 95 NFFC drafts last week to power rank NFL offenses. We sorted by most players drafted in the top 200 (not including D/ST or kickers). There were a lot of ties. I broke ties by combining the ADP of the players drafted; the lower the number, the higher the ranking (meaning the team’s players were drafted earlier in total).

Let’s look at some offenses in light of their ranking and highlight players overrated or overlooked given these results.

The top 10

You can see the entire list here.

The Chiefs are unanimously the choice of the fantasy football community, with nine players in the top 200. I’d quibble with Isiah Pachecoa seventh-round real-life rookie who was benched at Rutgers for crying out loud, going 129th overall. But this list does not include Jerrick McKinnonwho is a top 200-player for me. Ronald Jones should fall off the list soon, as he’s a likely cut. But he’ll just be replaced by McKinnon (510 yards, a TD and 14 catches in three playoff games). As I wrote earlier this month, the Chiefs stack is just sitting there for you. This team is going to score a ton of points and their WRs have never been cheaper.

The Bills are clearly No. 2 when you look at their eight players being drafted and then their total combined ADP of 734.6. The disconnect here is with Devin Singletary. Fantasy Twitter has always hated this guy. They made fun of his combined performance and lack of ideal size (but he’s just short, not small). He’s the 84th overall pick as the presumed starting running back in what’s clearly the No. 2 offense in the NFL, according to fantasy drafters. Singletary is coming off a great 2021 finishing kick, which extended into the postseason. In his last five regular-season games, he gained 375 rushing yards on 4.7 per carry with five touchdowns (plus another one receiving). Then he added three MORE rushing TDs in the postseason. He’s one of 10 RBs in NFL history with at least 4.4 per carry each of his first three years with a minimum of 150 carries each year. The list is a cavalcade of the best RBs in NFL history. Yet we treat Singletary like he’s eminently replaceable.

The Raiders have the fifth-ranked offense. The value here is Derek Carr. I know he’s not a runner. But I would bet right now on the Raiders to lead the NFL in pass attempts before any other team and that makes Carr a top bet to lead the NFL in passing yards. That’s a good base for fantasy scoring. If he doesn’t do it, he’ll be close. He’s now the QB10 at about pick no. 114 (a 10th rounder). There is clearly a lot of talent around him in Las Vegas, according to fantasy. Yet the market is lukewarm on Carr. Grabbing him in the 10th round gives you a very good chance for a top five-scoring fantasy QB.

The Lions are in the middle of the pack (15th) with seven players drafted but with a very modest combined ADP of 825.67 — only the Patriots were lower among the 11 teams in that seven-player-drafted tier. I mentioned in my stacking article that the Lions were the optimal SuperFlex stack because Jared Goff is so cheap (ADP 217.7 but note Goff makes the top 200 at exactly the 200th player after we remove all the D/ST). The biggest value here seems to be DJ Chark at 138th overall on average. If this is an average or slightly better offense, the No. 2 receivers should be picked about three rounds higher. Chark has some upside with three 100-yard games, two multi-TD games and 1,000+ receiving yards at age 23 in 2019.

We seem to be reflexively drafting Patriots. That makes them the 16th offense despite no one getting any real love from drafters. The only Patriots taken before the 100th pick are the assumed timeshare RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. I would draft a guy coming off a 15-TD season in Harris at that price. It doesn’t seem like Stevenson is going to get the third-down job. I also like Hunter Henry as the 15th TE off the board; I would not be surprised at all if he led New England in TD catches.

Going towards the bottom of the list, we ran into some running back problems. The Titans are graded the fourth-worst offense by drafters, using this methodology. So why are we drafting Derrick Henry the fifth RB overall (pick nine on average)? In the four games that AJ Brown missed last year, the Titans scored 70 points (17.5 per game). And in the three games without Henry, Tennessee ran for over 200 yards as a team twice. Brown is missing ALL the Titans games this year. This could be a bottom-five scoring offense. I have Henry as the RB 10 in my rankings.

The Panthers have the 31st offense. Drafters are not bullish on this offense even though Baker Mayfield will be the starting QB. I get that Christian McCaffrey doesn’t need TDs to score a bunch of points. But when you combine a likely bottom-five offense (if fantasy experts are to be believed) with McCaffrey’s injury history, you can see why many really struggle to pull the trigger on him over the top three WRs in full PPR, flex 10 (three WRs-plus-a-flex formats). He’s my second back but he’s not someone I’d draft enthusiastically.

(Top photo: Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)