Tuesday’s matchup between the Reds and Phillies was another example of how you can handicap a game as best as possible and still end up on the wrong side of a ticket. I was on the under for the game at 8.5, and it was all going according to plan as the game remained scoreless after five innings.
The teams then combined to score seven runs in the sixth inning and the total ended up hitting 13.
If you had the underdog Reds on the moneyline, then we send thoughts and prayers for your ticket as well. Cincinnati blew a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning and a 6-5 lead in the ninth inning as the Phillies walked it off on a Nick Maton single.
The teams meet again Wednesday night in game three of a four-game series. TJ Zeuch will get the start for the visitors while the Phillies will counter with Christopher Sánchez.
Last week we cashed a ticket while fading Zeuch on the first five runline. This time, given the weather forecast, I’ve got my sights set on a different tack that could also be promising.
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Moneyline: CIN (+200) vs. PHI (-250)
Spread: CIN +1.5 (+105) vs. PHI -1.5 (-125)
Total: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
TJ Zeuch (0-2, 13.50 ERA) vs. Christopher Sánchez (1-1, 3.80 ERA)
Bettors need to think outside the box when the Phillies face a struggling team near the bottom like the Reds.
Frankly, laying 2.5-to-1 on the favorite is simply out of the question for me in a sport where even the best team can lose 70 games in a season.
Wednesday’s matchup could be unpredictable, as neither pitcher has much experience at the big league level. Both pitchers will make their third start this season, so we don’t have enough data points to feel comfortable with our projections. It could very well be anyone’s game.
On paper, Sánchez looks to be the better starter, but yesterday we saw the Reds’ offense put up a brave fight against a decent pitcher in Ranger Suárez. Wednesday’s game could be another slugfest. Both starters could get roughed up, which means the bullpens will be called into action early on.
I think the narrative for this game will be about the hitters, given the optimal conditions at Citizens Bank Park. The skies should be clear, with temperatures around 87 degrees. More importantly, a steady breeze will blow out to right field at around 8 mph.
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When I look at the total, the bookmakers are tipping their hand with a .20-cent juice to the over. However, yesterday we accurately predicted that the total would drop even lower, and things didn’t work out in our favor despite beating the closing number by a full run.
The play I’m probably most comfortable making is targeting the Phillies’ alternate team total of 4.5 runs. I think Philadelphia got a good look at Zeuch last week, and I don’t think his stuff translates well at the Major League level. The Phillies romped the Reds 11-4 when they faced Zeuch in Cincinnati.
You can read a bit more about my profile of Zeuch in last week’s writeup, but know that opposing teams have scored at least eight runs in each of his previous three starts.
Unfortunately, with team totals, they’re more likely posted with a half-run to avoid any potential push. As a result, I won’t commit to more than a lean to the over at 4.5 runs.
Lean – Phillies ALT Team Total over 4.5 runs (-165)
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