David Robertson suffered his first blown save since joining the Phillies as he could not preserve an 8-7 lead in the ninth inning against the Mets.
The Phillies couldn’t wait for the Mets to get out of town. Philadelphia won just five of the 19 games in the season series.
The Phillies should get some reprieve with the lowly Cincinnati Reds (48-71) coming to town for a four-game series. Noah Syndergaard will get the start for the home team while the Reds will counter with Luis Cessa.
Cincinnati will likely utilize Cessa as an opener. Monday will only be his second start and he has not pitched more than two innings in any outing. As a result, we should get a long look at the Reds bullpen, which has the worst ERA in the league at 4.90.
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Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: CIN (+190) vs. PHI (-250)
Spread: CIN +1.5 (+100) vs. PHI -1.5 (-120)
Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Luis Cessa (3-1, 5.50 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (7-8, 3.95 ERA)
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to Cessa’s 3-1 mark because, according to FanGraphs, he pitched only 24.5% of his 37 2/3 innings in medium or high-leveraged situations compared to Syndergaard, who’s had 61.4% of his 98 innings in a similar spot.
Since June 18th, Cessa has made 14 appearances, and the Reds won just one of those games.
Although it’s a small sample size, the Phillies lineup has had success against Cessa. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies are hitting .400 with a .451 w0BA in 22 plate appearances.
But since we’re likely to see a heavy dose of Reds relievers, Cincinnati fans have to be very concerned about a bullpen with the worst HR/9 ratio (1.29) and the second-worst walk rate of 4.3 per nine innings.
Facing the Reds couldn’t come at a better time for the Phillies after Sunday’s disappointing collapse against the Mets. And the Phillies couldn’t have a better pitcher on the mound against the Reds than Syndergaard. In seven career starts against the Reds, Syndergaard’s teams are a perfect 7-0 in those outings.
While I certainly like the Phillies to bounce back in this spot, I’m unwilling to lay such a high price at -250.
Instead, I’d look to back the Phillies on the first five run line of -0.5 / -155. We made this exact play seven days ago when Syndergaard faced the Reds. The Phillies led 4-2 after five innings, en route to a 4-3 win.
Phillies F5 RL -0.5 (-155)
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