Philadelphia Phillies’ Aaron Nola celebrates with teammates after the Phillies won a baseball game … [+]
With the regular season in the books, it’s time for postseason fun on the field, and player and team award season in this space. I’ve been tracking the major award races in both leagues all season, and now I’ll give my take on who should win the hardware. Later this month, I’ll also post my team true-talent rankings. All of this is based on my batted-ball based metrics – I’ve still got some league context tweaks to make to the runs above average totals, but the ordering of players will not change. Last week, we looked at the AL Cy Young race. Today, it’s the NL’s turn.
I’ve got grief from a few of you for touting the Phillies’ Aaron Nola as the Cy Young frontrunner for much of the season. While everyone was conceding the award to the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara and his admittedly superior won-lost record, Nola just kept right on rolling. He’s by far the game’s best at the things pitchers most completely control – strikeouts and walks – and he’s right there with the best in everything else.
A quick refresher on the method used. I take all batted balls allowed by qualifying starting pitchers and apply league average production rates for each exit speed/launch angle bucket. Then I add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher’s “Tru” ERA-, my proxy for ERA-/FIP-. Then that figure is spread across each pitcher’s innings bulk, and the hurlers are ranked by “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
Here we go……the Top Five plus four Honorable Mentions:
HONORABLE MENTION
The Dodgers’ Tyler Anderson (23.3 TPRAA) very quietly kept pace with much more heralded and acclaimed starters all season. No one stifled contact authority like Anderson did among NL ERA qualifiers. His overall (84.5 mph) and grounder (78.6 mph) authority allowed were lowest among NL qualifiers, and his 89.6 mph liner authority allowed was 2nd only to the Mets’ Chris Bassitt. He’s the 2022 NL Contact Manager of the Year (73 Adjusted Contact Score), with the best Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score (66). The Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen (22.4 TPRAA) went a good chunk of late summer without yielding a single run. He wasn’t quite as good as his numbers – he was fortunate on all batted ball types (58 vs. 85 Unadjusted vs. Adjusted Fly Ball, 74 vs. 93 Line Drive, 87 vs. 96 Ground Ball, 68 vs. 87 overall Contact Score). Still, he is one of the most accomplished strike throwers in the game, with the Greg Maddux starter set.
The Dodgers’ Julio Urias (22.1 TPRAA) also had an exemplary campaign. He’s the biggest pop up generator and yielded the lowest liner rate among NL qualifiers. The latter category is often quite volatile, but Urias has shown a penchant for avoiding solid, squared up contact in his still somewhat brief MLB career. He finished 3rd among NL qualifiers with an 81 Adjusted Contact Score. the padres Joe Musgrove (19.5 TPRAA) always seems to be toiling barely outside the spotlight, although his Game 3 performance vs. the Mets in the wild card round could change that. He is very good at everything but not spectacular in any single phase of pitching. He very quietly yielded the 4th lowest average exit speed allowed (85.9 mph) among NL qualifiers, albeit without a go-to pop up or grounder tendency.
THE TOP FIVE
#5 – RHP Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) – 77 “Tru” ERA-, 23.7 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA)
This is where the prohibitive favorite lands according to my method. Why? The biggest factor is massively good fortune on ground balls. He induces a ton of them, which is great, but at 85.0 mph, they are hit harder than the MLB average. Among the NL starters we’ll discuss today, only Carlos Rodon (121 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score) allowed more authoritative contact on the ground than Alcantara. Hitters only batted .162 AVG-.165 SLG on the ground against him, for a 58 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score. Sorry, but that luck-induced benefit shouldn’t accrue directly to the pitcher. I love Alcantara – I love his durability, I love his 5.2 degree average launch angle allowed, 3rd best in the NL behind two pitchers he was better than. That said, he wasn’t the best pitcher in the NL in 2022.
#4 – LHP Max Fried (Braves) – 70 “Tru” ERA-, 25.0 TPRAA
Fried finished 2nd behind Tyler Anderson in the 2022 NL Contact Manager of the Year race with an 80 Adjusted Contact Score. He was 3rd among NL qualifiers in lowest average exit speed allowed at 85.6 mph, and 4th, right behind Alcantara, in lowest average launch angle allowed (7.2 degrees). He excels at muting contact authority across all batted ball types, tying for the 2nd lowest Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score (77) among NL qualifiers. Toss in the 2nd lowest walk rate (4.4%) among NL qualifiers, and it’s an imposing overall package that should have staying power.
#3 – RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers) – 71 “Tru” ERA-, 26.4 TPRAA
Fried rates a slight edge in quality, but Burnes’ additional 16 2/3 innings pitched more than bridges the gap. Yes, our three top finishers posted the three best strikeout rates among NL qualifiers this season. Burnes wasn’t quite as imposing as last season, when he won both my NL Pitcher of the Year (and the actual Cy Young) along with my NL Contact Manager of the Year award. That was kind of a best-case scenario – his slightly better than average 95 Adjusted Contact Score posted this season is more indicative of his true talent in that area. He has a slight grounder tendency and manages contact authority pretty well, but it’s that K/BB profile that carries him. And it’s not as good as Aaron Nola’s.
#2 – LHP Carlos Rodon (Giants) – 64 “Tru” ERA-, 28.8 TPRAA
Different cat here than the other guys we’ve been discussing. Rodon is all about missing bats – his K rate was easily the best among NL qualifiers. That said, there are risks in his profile, and he’s managed them about as well as he possibly could of late. His 19.1 degree average launch angle was the highest among NL qualifiers, and he’s not an over-the-top pop up guy. He actually posted the 2nd best Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score (68) in the NL this season, which I don’t think can be counted upon indefinitely. Along with German Marquez of the Rockies, his 121 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score was the highest in the NL. A lot of his fundamentals don’t suggest that he’d be a strong contact manager, but for the 2nd straight year (90 and 89 Adjusted Contact Scores in 2022 and 2021), he’s been one. His health has been dicey, and decline could be sudden, but the current package is very impressive.
#1 – RHP Aaron Nola (Phillies) – 65 “Tru” ERA-, 32.3 TPRAA
And here he is. Rodon noses him out in terms of quality, but Nola pitched 27 more innings. Where do I start? How about that 235/29 K/BB ratio? That’s way better than Alcantara’s 207/50. His K rate ranks 3rd among NL qualifiers, the BB rate is the best. More than anything else, that’s what a pitcher directly controls. No one’s arguing about Justin Verlander’s candidacy in the AL, right? Well, if he would have pitched 30 more innings this season, with 50 strikeouts and zero walks, he would have matched Nola’s numbers in those categories. That’s a tough one to argue, people.
How about the contact management arguments vis-a-vis Alcantara? Nola’s average exit speed allowed was actually fractionally better (87.1 vs. 87.3 mph). That can be taken with a grain of salt, but how about those grounders – Nola’s average grounder exit speed allowed of 81.8 mph was the 2nd lowest among NL qualifiers. While Alcantara was very lucky (58 Unadjusted vs. 107 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score), Nola was very unlucky (100 vs. 80) on the ground. That 80 adjusted mark was tied for best in the NL. You really shouldn’t hold Nola’s infield defense and relative lack of run support against him. Overall, Nola (90 Adjusted Contact Score) was almost as good a contact manager as Alcantara (86). The Marlin righty also rates the edge in innings volume, but it’s not enough to offset Nola’s substantial K/BB profile dominance.
Aaron Nola wasn’t only the best pitcher in the NL this season, he was the best pitcher in baseball. And he’s been at his best when his club needed him in the last week of the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs. He deserves the hardware.
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