Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the New York Islanders last season. On the other hand, very little went awry for the Florida Panthers, who set a salary-cap era record with 340 goals scored and won the Presidents’ Trophy with 122 points, which was 38 more than the Isles accrued.
Considering how these teams fared last season, it’s not a surprise to see the Cats as a road favorite. But is this a case of these two clubs being priced like the teams we saw last year rather than the ones we should expect to see in 2022-23?
Let’s dive in.
Panthers vs. Islanders prediction
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The Florida Panthers were an absolute force last season. The Cats were an offensive buzzsaw that had no issues with betting on themselves in back-and-forth contests. And there was nothing flukey about Florida’s performance. The Panthers paced the NHL in expected goals, shot attempts and high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, so there were no smoke-and-mirrors at work in South Florida.
But that was the regular season. Because once the postseason started, the Cats looked like a different team — and not in a good way. After barely getting by the No. 8 seed Washington Capitals in Round 1, the Panthers were swept by their in-state rival, the Tampa Bay Lightning, in Round 2.
Rather than staying the course and hoping that the team’s dip in form was just a postseason blip, the Cats revamped their organization by firing Andrew Brunette, hiring Paul Maurice and then trading Jonathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar for Matthew Tkachuk.
Tkachuk is a star and a complete menace for opposing defenders to deal with, but removing Huberdeau, Florida’s all-time scoring leader, and Weegar, a strong first-pairing defenseman, from this roster is certainly a risk. The Panthers should still be able to score plenty of goals, but the defense now looks quite vulnerable behind Aaron Ekblad.
And it’s not like the Panthers were a dominant defensive side last season, either. The Cats finished 16th in expected goals against and 22nd in preventing high-danger scoring chances allowed, so they really relied on their world-beating offense to paper over some cracks on the blueline and in goal.
While scoring goals was never a problem for the Panthers last season, it was the biggest issue for the New York Islanders. The Isles finished 22nd in goals per game in 2021-22 and had just two 20-goal scorers and three 50-point players last season. The Islanders were never going to be a prolific offense, but those numbers are simply not even close to good enough for a team that entered the campaign as a trendy Stanley Cup pick.
The Islanders did underperform last season, but they also had to deal with an almost laughable amount of poor luck. Not only did the team start the year on a 13-game road trip, but they were also ravaged by COVID and had a cluster of injuries to key players.
But there were some silver linings to how the Islanders played over the second half of the season. The Isles played at a 97-point pace after the COVID pause until they were officially eliminated and they skated to a 98-point pace from March 1 to the elimination game, and in that span, they played the most condensed schedule in the league. (26 games).
Betting on the NHL?
Despite a down year, the only notable changes the Isles made in the offseason were firing head coach Barry Trotz and trading for Alexander Romanov to take over for the now retired Zdeno Chara.
That may not sound like a great thing for a team that only posted 84 points last season, but it’s also worth remembering that this roster is basically unchanged from last October, when they were +1500 to win the Stanley Cup and considered a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference.
Florida’s offense will give teams fits all season, but the Islanders do project as a decent defensive team and they have one of the game’s best goaltenders behind them as a safety net.
After spending his early 20s dominating the KHL, Ilya Sorokin is now in his third NHL season with the Isles, but this is the first time he’ll enter the year as the undisputed starter. And for good reason.
Sorokin finished 2021-22 with the second-best save percentage, third-best Goals Saved Above Expected and second-most shutouts, so it’s no shocker to see him as the third-favorite to win the Vezina behind Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Florida Panthers are better than the New York Islanders, but this number seems too steep considering the situational spot. The Panthers are playing their first game under Paul Maurice. They’re adjusting to life without Huberdeau and Weegar. And the defense looks like it could be a real issue. Throw in the fact that they’re going up against Sorokin and you can see the recipe for an upset on Thursday night.
And if you are interested in betting on the Isles, you likely can wait out the market in this case. The Panthers should attract most of the pre-game action, so it’s unlikely that this number gets any shorter on the Isles.
The pick: New York Islanders +115 (FanDuel)
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