The San Diego Padres went big at the trade deadline with a flurry of deals — highlighted by the blockbuster acquisition of Juan Soto. With a revamped roster, they were able to not only secure a playoff spot, but stun the 101-win New York Mets in the wild-card series. Then, even more amazingly, the Pads upset their National League West rivals, the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers, in the NL Division Series. In the end, though, their magic ran out against another underdog — the Philadelphia Phillies — in the NL Championship Series.
Overall, a pretty positive season at Petco Park. But there are questions looming over the franchise, headlined by the loss of superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. to an 80-game ban following a positive PED test. Here’s a look at the biggest issues surrounding San Diego as it heads into the offseason.
Notable free agents: 1B Josh Bell, INF/OF Brandon Drury, SP Sean Manaea, SP Mike Clevinger, OF Wil Myers (club option), RP Craig Stammen
The Padres set a franchise record with an Opening Day payroll of roughly $175 million to begin the 2021 season, nearly $70 million more than their previous high. In 2022, they increased it to about $211 million. The question is: How much higher can they go in order to get over the hump? They already have $137 million committed to just 11 players for 2023 — and that doesn’t include the significant arbitration bumps of Soto and Josh Hader, who are projected to command somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million through arbitration in 2023.
Trade candidates: SP Yu Darvish, SP Blake Snell
Darvish and Snell are each only a year away from free agency, and the Padres need them to fortify their rotation in 2023. But don’t dismiss AJ Preller’s creativity; if the Padres’ GM finds a suitor willing to acquire one of these top-of-the-rotation arms for players who make more long-term sense, he might be willing to entertain it, so long as it doesn’t set the team back in 2023. Still, it’s far more likely they stay.
Extension candidates: RF Juan Soto
The Padres gave up their best prospects for Soto because they’ll have him through the end of the 2024 season. There is no urgency to extend him now. And given that he turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension from the Washington Nationals, it’s clear that locking him up will be extremely difficult. But you can’t rule this out. The Padres would love to do it.
1. Where do they find more offense?
The Padres had an underwhelming offense that was often carried by Manny Machado for the first four months of the 2022 season. Then they acquired Soto, Bell and Drury before the trade deadline — and they still weren’t consistently good. Tatis’ absence certainly didn’t help, and now the potential loss of Bell and Drury to free agency could leave some holes at first base and at designated hitter. The Padres need to address that. They might also need to address center field, given the regular-season struggles of Trent Grisham. However they do it, they need to find a way to add more consistent punch to support their pitching.
2. Do they need more starting pitching?
The Padres ran out of starting pitching down the stretch in 2021. In 2022, they did everything they could to ensure that didn’t happen again, fielding a six-man rotation for most of the year before whittling it down to a formidable five down the stretch. The Padres could use starting-pitching depth like that again. Manaea and Clevinger will probably venture into free agency, but Adrian Morejon, a highly talented 23-year-old who pitched out of the bullpen this season, is ready to step in. He’s slated to join Darvish, Snell and Joe Musgrove. The Padres can also utilize Nick Martinez, who pitched in practically every role this season. But they still might want to add here.
3. Can they count on Tatis?
We saved the biggest question for last, and it’s not just for next season but for the next decade-plus. The Padres still owe Tatis $324 million over the next 12 years. Over these past 12 months, though, they saw him suffer a major wrist injury in an offseason motorcycle accident, then test positive for a performance-enhancing substance. The Padres committed to Tatis early because they felt he was great enough to someday warrant a statue outside of Petco Park. Now they just hope he can be available for them. If he is, he can be one of the sport’s most dynamic players, someone who can settle into the top of their lineup, potentially contribute at both shortstop and center field, and form a devastating trio with Soto and Machado. If he plays to his ability, he can lift the Padres to a championship. But it’s fair to question whether that will happen now.
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