Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total, over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Green Bay Packers. Be sure to check out our San Francisco 49ers preview.
Green Bay Packers (+1200 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 record: 13-4, 1st in NFC North
It’s hard to think that after three consecutive 13-win seasons, the Packers still failed in their quest to get back to the Super Bowl. They’re likely to find things even tougher this season as they’ll be without All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, who moved on to the Raiders after requesting a trade.
Adams wanted a new challenge because he didn’t want to fully commit to Green Bay, knowing that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could leave at any point. At times, Rodgers has openly discussed walking away from the game while still clearly in his prime.
But after Rodgers signed a three-year extension, Packers fans hope he can get at least one more crack at another Super Bowl title before heading off into the sunset.
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Packers offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Notable departures include wide receivers Davante Adams (92.7 PFF grade), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (66.1 PFF grade), and Equanimeous St. Brown (57.4 PFF grade).
- Signed free agent WR Sammy Watkins (66.3 PFF grade).
- Drafted former Georgia teammates LB Quay Walker (22nd pick) and DL Devote Wyatt (28th pick). Other draft picks include South Dakota State WR Christian Watson (34th pick), UCLA OL Sean Rhyan (92nd pick), Nevada WR Romeo Doubs (132nd pick), and Wake Forest OL Zach Tom (140th pick).
Green Bay Packers 2022 schedule
Week 1: at Vikings
Week 2: vs. Bears
Week 3: at Buccaneers
Week 4: vs. Patriots
Week 5: vs. Giants (in London)
Week 6: vs. Jets
Week 7: at Commanders
Week 8: at Bills
Week 9: at Lions
Week 10: vs. Cowboys
Week 11: vs. Titans
Week 12: at Eagles
Week 13: at Bears
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: vs. Rams
Week 16: at Dolphins
Week 17: vs. Vikings
Week 18: vs. Lions
NFL betting lines: Packers win total
O/U 10.5 wins -160 (FanDuel)
I did some digging and was surprised to learn that the Packers’ win total was also 10.5 games last season. Initially, I thought the bookmakers downgraded Green Bay this season because of the Adams departure. This is yet another example of how the quarterback trumps every position in the NFL. As long as No. 12 is under center, the Packers will always have a chance to be a good football team, especially in the weaker NFC.
And while I know Rodgers did some chirping regarding his young receivers dropping passes in practice, I was pleased to see that the two position groups met together the following morning to get on the same page. While these receivers aren’t household names yet, quarterbacks of Rodgers’ caliber help young pass catchers develop faster.
Historically, we’ve seen Rodgers succeed in games even when he’s missing his star receivers. Thus, I have confidence that the Packers will sort things out as Rodgers is still playing at a high level after coming off another MVP season.
What I’m interested in watching with this Green Bay team will be the defense because I think it can be one of the best in recent years for the Packers. Adding the two Georgia players Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt early in the draft should boost a Packers defense that finished 22nd in Football Outsiders DVOA metric.
Green Bay’s defense will have an edge more often than not versus opponents and according to Action Network’s predictive analyst Sean Koerner, the Packers have the ninth-softest strength of schedule heading into the season.
The number seems high but Green Bay still has enough talent in a weaker conference to post 11+ wins.
The Pick
Over 10.5 wins -160 (FanDuel)
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NFC North Dual Forecast
I’m not all that enamored with Packers’ player props this season because this team will undoubtedly have to make some adjustments on offense following Adams’ departure.
As a result, I plan to go with a Packers-Vikings dual forecast prop at -165. This prop involves selecting the two teams that will finish first or second in the division in any order.
The Bears are the only team not named the Packers or Vikings to finish first in the division in the past 11 years. Chicago could be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and while the Lions will be better, I don’t expect them to make a quantum leap up the NFC North standings.
Square plays pay out just the same as sharp plays. Therefore, I won’t have any problem laying the juice in this spot. Green Bay and Minnesota are clearly the top two teams and the only serious playoff contenders in the division.
The Pick
Packers-Vikings to finish first/second in NFC North -165 (BetMGM)
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