Wednesday night will be extremely quiet in the NHL, as only four of the league’s 32 teams are set to take the ice.
Luckily for us, there’s still some value on the board. Let’s dive into three plays for the two-game slate.
Flyers (+250) @ Maple Leafs (-300)
There’s a lot of noise surrounding the Maple Leafs following a disappointing West Coast road trip.
While Toronto has yet to play to its usual standards – at least in the regular season – it’s not performing nearly as badly as the results suggest.
Take the last five games, where the Maple Leafs own a 1-4 record. At five-on-five, they’ve generated just under 14 high-danger chances per 60, which is actually the eighth-highest output in the league.
Despite their strong chance numbers, the Maple Leafs scored only 1.49 goals per 60 at five-on-five. That’s well below their expected goal total of 2.89 per 60. Even with a lack of pop in the bottom six, the Maple Leafs have way too much talent to underperform to that extent.
A date with the Flyers could be just what the doctor ordered. The Flyers rank dead last in attempts against per 60 and second-last in expected goals against per 60. They spend the majority of their games on their heels and have simply relied on Carter Hart (.943 save percentage) to bail them out and steal. wins.
The Maple Leafs shouldn’t have to worry about that tonight. Having played an overtime game on Tuesday, the expectation is that the Flyers will turn to backup Felix Sandstrom. He posted a .902 save percentage in the AHL a season ago and has allowed 1.5 goals more than expected through two starts this year.
With the Flyers bleeding chances and Hart getting a night off, this is a strong matchup for the Maple Leafs to get back on track.
Bet: Leafs -1.5 (-130)
Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-132)
Matthews is off to a somewhat quiet start in terms of scoring goals. It’s not for a lack of opportunity, though.
Toronto’s superstar center has been his usual self when it comes to generating shots and chances. Matthews leads the Maple Leafs – by far – with 86 shot attempts and 61 scoring chances through 10 games. That’s nine attempts and six scoring chances per game.
Now, he draws a juicy matchup against a Flyers team that bleeds shots and is in the latter half of a road back-to-back. Whatever magic John Tortorella is using to help his team keep pucks out of the net, it isn’t translating to success defensively.
This team is going to give up a ton of quality shots to a Maple Leafs side desperate to get a result, and Matthews will be involved in a lot of them.
Rasmus Dahlin over 2.5 shots (-132)
Death, taxes, and backing Dahlin at home. The Sabres’ top blue-liner has been a shooting machine in the early going this season, generating 31 attempts and 20 shots on goal through just five games in Buffalo. He has registered at least three shots in each of those games, consistently generating looks regardless of the opponent.
Dahlin draws a good matchup Wednesday night against the Penguins. They haven’t defended as well as you’d expect and are among the league’s worst teams in terms of allowing defensemen to generate shots. In fact, only four sides have conceded shots to the position at a higher rate than the Penguins.
Dahlin is playing fantastic hockey, and he’s at home, while the Penguins are giving up shots in bulk and – like the Flyers – find themselves in the latter half of a back-to-back.
This contest has all the makings of another good one for Dahlin.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.