The Canucks and Islanders kicked the NHL trade deadline season into high gear on Monday with the Bo Horvat trade. But with the deadline 31 days away, looking around the league you’ll see a lack of salary cap space available which may hinder teams from making deals.
Seventeen teams are currently utilizing long-term injury reserves to make the club cap compliant, per CapFriendly. The amount of space those teams are going to have available if needed to make trades before the March 3 deadline is dependent on if and when some of the injured players return.
Contending teams still want to make trades to improve their clubs before March 3. Rebuilding teams still want to sell off veteran players to collect assets. But how much the player costs against the cap will be as much of a factor as how much it costs in assets to acquire him.
With that in mind, The List is going to look at some players who might be under-the-radar trade targets. The players likely have an intriguing analytical profile, but most importantly they come with a small cap hit.
The Sharks have a collection of veterans on reasonable contracts who have all performed pretty well this season (individually) in support of their star players. You could populate half of this list with them.
The question is how many of them will first-year general manager Mike Grier actually be willing to move. The focus has been on Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier, but Grier could make several GMs happy if he is willing to make cheap deals on some of his veterans with terms available like Nico Sturm and Matt Benning.
Barabanov is at $2.5 million for this season and next. The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman have his market value at nearly twice that ($4.9 million). He’s on pace for 50-plus points this season, and he’s shown that his output isn’t entirely tied to being the third guy next to Meier and Tomas Hertl, like he was for much of last season. He could be a strong fit for someone looking for a complementary addition to one of their top two lines.
Acciari missed a big chunk of last season, but a fresh start in St. Louis has suited him pretty well. He’s got 10 goals and 18 points in 50 games and leads Blues forwards in short-handed time on ice. He’s going to check plenty of boxes for potential contenders — wins 54 percent of his faceoffs, has experience with a deep playoff run (2019 with Boston) and has a reputation as a sound two-way player.
The contract is also a big plus. Acciari is a pending UFA with a $1.25 million cap hit. Even teams with extremely limited space can make that work.
The goaltending market ahead of a trade deadline can be weird. Some teams don’t like trying to add a starter this late in the season.
Vejmelka could be worth it. He’s eighth in the NHL in Money Puck’s goals saved above expectations, and the seven guys ahead of him are all current or recent Vezina Trophy contenders. The raw numbers don’t always look great for Vejmelka, but the play in front of him is often lacking.
Are the Coyotes willing to move him? Is there a contending team willing to see if he can be a difference-maker for them? His cap hit is great for a starter/No. 1A guy at $2.725 million, but there are two more years on the deal as well.
Barbashev could be a fascinating deadline target as a pending UFA. He had a breakout season last year with 26 goals and 60 points, but isn’t producing at that rate in 2022-23. Some teams could also be concerned by his lack of playoff punch (no goals, two points in 19 games since the Stanley Cup run and just three goals in 50 career playoff contests).
But he’s also been worth 2.8 GAR this year and has a contract ($2.25 million) that he can pretty easily provide surplus value with a strong month in a new environment.
Max Domi is a reasonably priced ($3 million cap hit) pending UFA with 14 goals and 35 points. Easy choice for this exercise, right? His underlying numbers, particularly on the defensive side of the puck, are really bad. He feels like a deadline addition that eventually ends up being a healthy scratch once the new coach decides he can’t be trusted.
Blackwell is even more reasonably priced ($1.2 million this year and next). He has not produced for Chicago, but he has been a solid bottom-six forward at previous stops. His secret superpower is drawing penalties, and not taking them himself. Blackwell leads Chicago with 14 penalties drawn, including 13 at five-on-five. He’s also taken just three.
A fourth-line forward who can also play on the PK is helpful. One who helps put the team on the power play is an added bonus.
Bjugstad is having a nice bounce-back season with an increased role for the Coyotes. He has 11 goals and 21 points while averaging 16:45 of ice time per game, which would be the highest of his career.
He’s not going to play that much on a contender, but as a pending UFA with a $900,000 cap hit, he should draw some attention. Bjugstad is huge, can play center or wing, and The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman have his current market value at $3.3 million.
Their player card likes his defense more than his offense, while Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement likes Bjugstad’s even strength play (+4.6 GAR) a lot more than his special teams (-3.0 GAR). The Coyotes have outscored teams 29-23 at five-on-five with him on the ice and they’re obviously pretty bad (minus-29) without him. Seems like a lesser role for a contender could suit him pretty well.
7. Nick Bonino, F, San Jose Sharks
Bonino has had a couple of notable scoring droughts this season, but he’s also still at a 15-goal pace. He’s one of the top penalty killers on one of the top PK units in the NHL. Bonino also has playoff bona fides, beyond just the one magical run as the center of Pittsburgh’s “HBK” line.
He is a pending UFA, and his cap hit is at $2.05 million. He’s been worth 2.8 goals above replacement, per Evolving Hockey. Any contender that wants another No. 3 or 4 center and some PK help will likely be on the phone with the Sharks.
8. Sam Lafferty, F, Chicago Blackhawks
Lafferty is a pretty simple trade deadline target. Kills penalties, has some positional versatility, costs $1.15 million this season and next. His underlying numbers don’t look great, but they are OK relative to his teammates on a bad team.
Fans aren’t going to proclaim their team a trade deadline winner if Lafferty joins the club, but he can help someone’s forward depth.
There are several cost-effective goalies that could be available at this deadline. Montembeault has appeared in 22 games this season, but he’s 11th in the NHL in goals saved above expectations, per Money Puck.
This is the best form of Montembeault’s NHL career. He’s got a .925 save percentage over his past nine games in a league where that level of goaltending has been hard to come by this season. He’s at $1 million for this year and next. Is there a team out there with a goalie coach who is a Montembault believer…perhaps a bubble team that could use better netminding from its 1B option?
Seeler leads the Flyers in goals above replacement (10.1) and the guys with 30-plus games played in expected goals for percentage (51.85 percent). He’s also a 29-year-old defenseman who has 99 career NHL games and plays less than 15 minutes a night on the third pairing for a below-average team.
A potentially nice addition who has unlocked something in Philadelphia? Or a guy whose advanced numbers don’t tell the whole story? He’s at $775,000 for this season and next if a contending team wanted a closer look between now and the playoffs.
Vladislav Gavrikov plays a lot of minutes and has a manageable cap hit ($2.8 million). But there is some serious buyer beware with him from an analytical perspective, plus it looks like teams are going to pay a lot in asset value for him.
So let’s mention the other UFA defenseman in Columbus. Like White, he’s not someone who is going to be a No. 5 guys for a playoff team. But he does have 64 games over the past two seasons of being mostly OK despite playing for a bad team (his expected goals percentage led Columbus’ defensemen in 2021-22). At $750,000 as a pending UFA, a contender with injury issues on defense could do worse than play him for 15-16 minutes over the next couple of months.
Trying to find a bargain on the Ducks roster is…tough. Anaheim has five players that have been worth one win or more above replacement this year, per Evolving Hockey. Three are young guys who won’t be available. Two are high-priced guys who aren’t a bargain unless there is significant retention by the Ducks.
White is an interesting depth defenseman. He’s played 20 games for the Ducks and his underlying numbers, relative to his teammates, are solid. White was an intriguing prospect in New Jersey, but never really found a consistent spot in the lineup (although he also never played that poorly, either). He’s also been worth nearly a win (0.8 GAR) despite only playing in about 40 percent of their games.
He’s on a two-way contract at $762,500 for this season and next. Is a contender going to add him intending to play him on the third pairing in the playoffs? Probably not. Could he be someone who helps an injured defense corps now and is a decent emergency option in May? Maybe.
(Top photo of Sam Montembeault: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
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