Salary-cap pressure has left 41-goal scorer Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars still without a … [+]
The NHL’s ‘flat cap’ could soon become a thing of the past.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Rory Boylen reported Tuesday that multiple sources shared guidance that NHL teams have received from the league regarding salary-cap projections over the next four seasons.
With a strong caveat that these are forecasts and are subject to change, here’s where the cap ceiling is projected to land:
- 2022-23: $82.5 million (firm)
- 2023-24: $83.5 million (projected)
- 2024-25: $87.5 – $88 million (projected)
- 2025-26: approximately $92 million (projected)
COVID-19 thrust a dagger into the NHL’s revenue streams. Early in 2021, commissioner Gary Bettman asserted that the league had suffered losses of more than $1 billion, while Forbes pegged the shortfall at $720 million.
In the 2021-22 season, the league got back to playing a full 82-game schedule, mostly without attendance restrictions in arenas. A pair of new US TV-rights agreements further helped pad the coffers, as did sponsor decals on helmets and other corporate partnership deals. By May of 2022, the NHL’s senior vice president of North American business development, Kyle McMann, said that the league had returned to record revenue levels.
In July of 2020, the league and the NHL Players’ Association signed a memorandum of understanding which extended the existing collective bargaining agreement between the two sides until the end of the 2025-26 season. The MOU included mechanisms to re-balance the books and restore the 50/50 revenue split between players and owners — which had been disrupted by the pandemic.
The $81.5 million salary-cap ceiling from the 2019-20 season was held steady in the 2020 and 2021 offseasons, then bumped up by just $1 million this summer. After years of steady rises before the pandemic, four years of an essentially flat cap has forced general managers to make tough decisions about their payrolls.
With the league’s youngest players on cost-controlled entry-level contracts, it’s the journeymen who have found themselves squeezed the hardest. This summer, useful forwards like Evan Rodrigues and Tyler Motte waited for weeks before settling for one-year contracts. And forty-two players are currently at training camps on professional tryout deals, according to CapFriendly — still trying to earn NHL contracts for the upcoming year. That’s up from 31 PTOs in the fall of 2021 and 24 heading into the 2020-21 season.
On Sept. 22, one day after his 23rd birthday, promising forward Ryan McLeod of the Edmonton Oilers signed a one-year deal for $798,000 — despite the fact that the Oilers were required to make a qualifying offer of at least $813,750 earlier this summer, in order to retain his rights. He agreed to the contract because that was literally all the cap space that Edmonton general manager Ken Holland could make available.
With money so tight, four other restricted free agents coming off their entry-level deals remain unsigned as of Sept. 27 — 41-goal scorer Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars, forward Alex Formenton of the Ottawa Senators and defensemen Rasmus Sandin of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nicolas Hague of the Vegas Golden Knights.
If these salary-cap projections bear out, the 2022-23 offseason will be challenging once again for general managers, who will have another cap increase of only $1 million to help offset their expenses. Top players who are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer include Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews of the Chicago Blackhawks, Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko of the St. Louis Blues, David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins, Bo Horvat of the Vancouver Canucks and John Klingberg of the Anaheim Ducks — who settled on a one-year deal with a cap hit of $7 million this summer after failing to secure a long-term commitment. in his first crack at the market as a UFA.
Entry-level players who will be set to sign their second contracts next summer and have not yet been extended include 2022 Calder Trophy finalist Trevor Zegras of the Anaheim Ducks, New York Rangers defenseman K’Andre Miller and forward Dylan Cozens of the Buffalo Sabres.
As the saying goes, timing is everything. Players whose deals are up for renewal in the summer of 2024 could be sitting pretty, able to cash in when the cap starts to rise significantly once again.
2021-22 goal-scoring champ Auston Matthews could become the NHL’s highest-paid player in the summer … [+]
At the top of that list: Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The NHL’s top goal-scorer and Hart Trophy winner from the 2021-22 season is heading into Year 4 of his five-year contract with a cap hit of $11.640 million per season — third-highest in the league this year behind Connor McDavid of the Oilers ($12.5 million) and Artemi Panarin of the Rangers ($11.643 million). He’ll be in his playing prime when he signs his next deal, entering his age-27 years. And with cap space starting to free up at that time, he’ll be well-positioned to take a run at becoming the NHL’s highest-paid player.
Among the entry-level players, 2022 Calder winner Moritz Seider and his Detroit Red Wings teammate Lucas Raymond headline the restricted free agent class of 2024. If the salary cap does climb according to these early projections, they could also cash in effectively on their second deals.
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