Tony Ferrari lists Luke Hughes as one of the best defensemen yet to crack the NHL.
Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
What better way to kick off the second half of the NHL season than to answer some reader questions? The world of prospects is always filled with questions and uncertainty, so it presents a great opportunity to do a mailbag.
I asked you on Twitter for your prospect and NHL draft questions, and you all answered (with questions), so let’s get to it.
From Grind Line Podcast: Why is Carter Mazur going to be a top-six power forward in the NHL?
Top six might be aggressive, but Mazur’s been developing at an impressive rate in the NCAA since being drafted 70th overall in the 2021 NHL draft. After putting up 38 points in 41 games for the University of Denver in helping them to a national title. He then joined Team USA at the world juniors this past summer, scoring five goals in five games while being recognized as one of his team’s best players.
While he is a bit below his pace from last year in total scoring, he has already surpassed his goal total, scoring 17 in 26 games thus far. Mazur is coming up big as a goal-scorer, sitting second in college hockey. His assist numbers are way down this year, which is a cause for concern as it’s not often a player can succeed as a pure goal-scorer unless they are at the elite level, and Mazur isn’t quite there.
Mazur could be an effective bottom-six scorer who can contribute to the power play. He has great hands around the net and understands how to find some soft spots in the offensive zone.
From Malcolm Ert: Which right-shot defender should the Canucks target with the first-round pick they get in an Andrei Kuzmekno deal?
Vancouver moving a player for a first-round draft pick? Don’t you mean who are they moving their first-round pick for?
In reality, the Canucks certainly do look poised to move some of their pending unrestricted free agents, and the first-year Russian NHLer should be among those players, even if there has been Discussion in the market about the team re-signing Kuzmenko. Assuming the trade route is where the Canucks go, there are two ways this could go down. They could look to acquire a draft pick, or they could look to snag a younger player.
Sticking with defenseman as you wished, hey could go just about anywhere in the draft. The 2023 NHL draft isn’t loaded with talent, but some right-shot defenders could be worth a pick. If the pick is a bit higher up the board, a two-way defender who excels with their skating, such as Axel Sandin-Pellikka, could be the option. They could look to snag David Reinbacher, a rising name in the prospect world who has a ton of tools and size but looks like a bit of a projection. Names like Oliver Bonk, Cameron Allen and Aram Minnetian could also work into the conversation.
If they go for young drafted defenders, a few options from contenders could include Kaedan Korczak from Vegas or Jordan Spence from Los Angeles in terms of young NHLers. Prospects that make sense in a package include Mason Lohrei from Boston, Roman Schmidt of the Lightning or Carolina’s Scott Morrow.
From DSto: Could you see 14-year-old Nela Lopusanova getting drafted by a CHL team in a couple of years?
This is a fascinating question. Lopusanova is one of the most prolific scorers at the U-16 Slovak men’s level, running at a 3.1 point-per-game clip, good for fourth all-time for a player 14 or under. She is a highly skilled forward who has shown the ability to play against men her age and excel.
Lopusanova put herself on the world map after leading the Women’s World Under-18 Championship in scoring as a 14-year-old, putting together one of the most impressive highlight reels from any tournament over the last few years. She scored one of the most fluid “Michigan” goals I’ve ever seen, and she routinely made defenders look silly with the puck on her stick.
As for the original question, will a CHL team consider bringing in Lopusanova? I don’t know if it will happen, unfortunately. We’ve seen young women such as Eve Gascon play games in the CHL in recent years, but it’s generally been goaltenders that get the opportunity. I hope the success of players such as Gascon could give CHL squads the confidence to try adding a player like Lopusanova. It’s unfortunately unlikely, though.
From Rob: I see significant disparities in various rankings on smaller forwards such as Jayden Perron, Gavin Brindley and William Whitelaw, everything from the top 15 to outside of the top 50. What are the important criteria you use to assess if someone can thrive in the NHL?
This is an excellent question and one I try to answer at the beginning of my draft rankings quickly to give some reference for why I favor some players over others in comparison to other public analysts.
The main things I look for in a player are intelligence, mobility, skill and the ability to make players around them better. Physicality is valuable but often overrated because hitting everything that moves is often a bad decision. Functional physicality is the name of the game. You can hit another player all you want, but if it’s a second after a pass is made or you are just hitting a guy with no intention of recovering the puck, it’s useless and often takes you out of the play to the degree that it is. Detrimental to your team’s success.
Admittedly, size is less of an issue for me than others if the player shows tendencies that would lead me to believe they can get past it (think Brayden Point). You want to see them establish body position in board battles, keep themselves on the right side of the puck and force their opponents into mistakes with their speed and skill. Additionally, suppose a player is 6-foot-6 but can’t skate. In that case, I am less inclined to value that player because height does not equal talent. Big isn’t always good.
From Miguel: Given that the Sharks will probably draft a defenseman in the early second round, who do you think is a good fit? I love Sandin-Pellikka and Reinbacher, but I can’t see any of them slipping that far, unfortunately.
Hoping the Sharks (or any team) will target a specific position in the second round is a bit of a fool’s errand. What if the raft falls a bit differently than expected, and they target that position earlier, or a player they value as a top-15 pick falls to pick 45?
That said, this year’s early second round could be the sweet spot for defenders. The 2023 NHL draft is a bit weaker on the back end when it comes to surefire first-rounders, but there could be some high-upside blueliners to go in the late-first or early second.
Caden Price and David Reinbacher are incredibly toolsy. They could be long-term projects resulting in a high-end top-four defender. Luca Cagnoni and Tanner Molendyk have been quite impressive transition blueliners who are great skaters and could be interesting projects. Cam Allen and Lukas Dragicevic have their fans and have been hyped up as first-rounders at times, but they have glaring flaws pushing them down draft boards. This makes them interesting picks if a team thinks they could fix or deal with those flaws.
From Xavier: Who are your top 10 offensive defensemen yet to crack the NHL?
This kind of question is always among the most interesting. Do we define “crack the NHL” as a player playing one game or securing a long-term role? Do we shoot for pure upside or a balance of likelihood to get to the NHL and find success?
For the sake of this exercise, I am going to consider just about any player who hasn’t established themselves as full-time NHLers (Brandt Clarke still counts). We will try to balance the probability of a player getting to the NHL and their upside to be what they could be to the fullest extent.
So without any further explanation, here is my arbitrary ranking of offensive defenders yet to crack the NHL.
- Luke Hughes
- Brandt Clarke
- Pavel Mintyukov
- Olen Zellweger
- Simon Nemec
- Kevin Korchinski
- David Jiricek
- Scott Morrow
- Lane Hutson
- Denton Mateychuk
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