NHL predictions for all 16 playoff teams, a Stanley Cup winner and one final Penguins run

I fall on the old-school side of things. While I don’t hate analytics in the least, I’m a big fan of looking at rosters and figuring out which teams I think are best without looking at things like expected goals. These are valuable tools — I’m not mocking anything. But if we all predicted things based on these types of numbers, we’d all pretty much predict the same things. That would be kind of dull, don’t you think?

With that in mind, I’ve made my annual standings projections and playoff picks. We are going to focus heavily on the Metropolitan Division because you all happen to be Penguins fans.

Hockey season is underway, and the Penguins begin action Thursday night against the Coyotes. It’s the best time of the year.

Without any further ado, here’s how I expect the NHL season to unfold.

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Metropolitan Division

1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. Pittsburgh Penguins
3. New York Rangers
4. New Jersey Devils *
5. Washington Capitals
6. Columbus Blue Jackets
7. New York Islanders
8. Philadelphia Flyers

*- Wild card

Thoughts

• Carolina is built to dominate in the regular season, so much so that it even brought in Max Pacioretty and Brent Burns, two terrific players without Stanley Cup rings. I kid, I kid. They’re both really good players. However, I wonder how they fit in with Carolina. When I think of the Hurricanes, I think of a brilliant skating team that just smothers you with its wheels and impressive two-way play. Burns is going to be 38 in March, is on the decline and isn’t a speedster to begin with. Pacioretty is a really good player, but I’m not sure if he fits in with how Carolina plays. This could absolutely be a Cup team, and I like them to win this division. There aren’t really any holes on this roster. But I’m still not totally sold on them.

• The Penguins’ body of work speaks for itself over the past 16 years. History tells us the Penguins will make the playoffs. The core remains elite, Mike Sullivan is arguably the NHL’s finest coach, the blue line has been augmented with the additions of Jeff Petry and Jan Rutta (Ty Smith will make his mark eventually, too) and Tristan Jarry, so long that he can stay. healthy, is a top-10 NHL goaltender. Their bottom six is ​​nothing special, but that’s something general manager Ron Hextall can and likely will address before the trade deadline. Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin strike me as very eager to prove that they deserved their new contracts. This team is still very good.

• The analytics community really, really hates the Rangers. They do have some holes in their lineup. They also have arguably the NHL’s best goalie, and one of the NHL’s most talented cores with the likes of Chris Kreider, Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin and Mike Zibanejad. I also expect Alexis Lafreniere to make a jump. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a superstar, but I do think he’s going to be a very good player. K’Andre Miller is a No. 1 defenseman in the making, too. So, sure, there are some flaws. But there’s serious star power on this team, too. I think discounting them is a little silly.

• I’m high on the Devils this season. I think Jack Hughes is a real star and everyone will see it this season. He reminds me so much of a young Patrick Kane, from the way he’s built to the way he moves to the way he sees the ice. Nico Hischier is a fine two-way player. Ondrej Palat will make a big difference in New Jersey. John Marino had a strong camp and will be a solid player for the Devils. Jesper Brett? Erik Haula? Miles Wood? Dougie Hamilton? Good players. Mackenzie Blackwood has a lot of talent, and I think he’ll be much better this year. The Devils are my sleeper to make the playoffs.

• I pick Washington to miss the playoffs every season, it seems. Much like the Penguins, they’re old. But I feel like the Penguins are built much better. Plus, the Nicklas Backstrom injury is a killer for the Capitals. To watch them play regularly is to understand how important Backstrom is to that team. I liked the signing of Darcy Kuemper. They haven’t had an actual NHL goalie in a couple of years, so he will help. It wouldn’t shock anyone if the Capitals made the playoffs, but I think they’re ready to take a step back. Alex Ovechkin will score his 50 goals because it’s simply what he does. But I don’t love this team at all.

• The Blue Jackets are interesting. They’ve got some real star power now. Columbus is a great hockey market just waiting to happen and Johnny Gaudreau’s presence is a huge deal for central Ohio. This team isn’t bad at all. The Blue Jackets could make a run for a wild-card spot and I wouldn’t be shocked. But I think they’re a year away.

• I’m not buying the Islanders at all. I truly believe Barry Trotz is a magician. He’s no longer there, thus, I don’t see the playoffs returning to Long Island or Queens or Elmont (to be precise) anytime soon.

• Torts in Philly? Sign me up. This was always his destiny. I can’t wait to see Torts leading the Flyers into Pittsburgh this season. It will be truly wonderful theater. But he’s got his work cut out for him with that roster.

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Maple Leafs
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Florida Panthers
4. Boston Bruins *
5. Ottawa Senators
6. Detroit Red Wings
7. Buffalo Sabres
8. Montreal Canadiens

*- Wild card

Quick thoughts

• I have serious issues with Toronto’s goaltending, but the Leafs will score a ton of goals and win the division.

• The Bolts must still be dealt with in the postseason, which is never fun. But they’ve lost a lot over the past couple of years, and the fatigue from the last three postseasons must be a concern.

• Florida is good, a playoff team, but they gave up too much for Matthew Thachuk, who is, admittedly, a wonderful player.

• Boston is banged up but will make the playoffs. On paper, this is a good team.

• Ottawa will be must-see TV, but the blue line needs to get better before a playoff berth happens.

• Detroit is slowly getting better. Slowly.

• I always think the Sabers will be better, but they never are. They need to prove it.

• The good people of Montreal just can’t be thrilled right now.

Central Division

1. Colorado Avalanche
2. Nashville Predators
3. Minnesota Wild
4. Dallas Stars *
5. St. Louis Blues *
6. Winnipeg Jets
7. Chicago Blackhawks
8. Arizona Coyotes

*- Wild card

Quick thoughts

• Colorado will make a major move before the trade deadline and still be the team to beat in the playoffs.

• Nashville is so, so solid, but I have a hard time taking the Preds seriously as Cup contenders.

• Minnesota is intriguing. Marc-Andre Fleury didn’t look himself last season, but I’m betting he rebounds.

• Dallas is sneaky good. Jake Oettinger put on a show in the playoffs last season, Jason Robertson is the star you don’t know about and, yeah, the Stars have some legitimate talent.

• The Blues will make the playoffs, but I’m not blown away by them. They feel like a one-and-done team this season.

• Winnipeg? The Jets don’t stink, but there’s nothing special on that roster.

• The Blackhawks’ and Coyotes’ fight for last place will truly be special.

Pacific Division

1. Calgary Flames
2. Edmonton Oilers
3. Vancouver Canucks
4. Los Angeles Kings
5. Vegas Golden Knights
6. Anaheim Ducks
7. Seattle Kraken
8. San Jose Sharks

Quick thoughts

• The Flames are really good. Maybe Stanley Cup good, at least on paper. They’re deep, they’re nasty, they’re talented.

• The Oilers have matured and, given who their two best players are, could certainly make a Cup run.

• I love the Canucks this season. Not a great blue line, but Thatcher Demko is the NHL’s most underrated goalie, and this team will score. I see them making the playoffs.

• The Kings are pretty solid, but I think last season’s run to the playoffs was a bit of a fluke.

• Vegas has made so many mistakes over the past season. I love their coach, Bruce Cassidy, but not much else about that team.

• Anaheim has some good, young talent, but that’s not a playoff team.

• Seattle will be marginally better, and Shane Wright will thrive there.

• San Jose? Rough times.

Playoff predictions

Eastern Conference

• Carolina over New Jersey
• Pittsburgh over NY Rangers
• Toronto over Boston
• Florida over Tampa Bay

• Pittsburgh over Carolina
• Toronto over Florida

Quick thoughts

Come on, you’d love it. Toronto finally wins a couple of series and everyone believes it’s the Year of the Leafs. And then, Captain Canada himself, Sidney Crosby, hammers away at Matt Murray’s glove side with absolutely no mercy. I think these Penguins have one run left in them and I think this could be the year. Lots of good teams in the East, but there’s no clear favorite at all. It’s a perfect storm for the Penguins, who are overdue for some postseason breaks.

Western Conference

• Colorado over St. Louis
• Minnesota over Nashville
• Calgary over Dallas
• Edmonton over Vancouver

• Colorado over Minnesota
• Calgary over Edmonton

Quick thoughts

I actually don’t like what the Avs did this offseason at all. Don’t like their goaltending. Don’t like their second-line situation. But… they were so much better than everyone else last season and they will still make a couple of moves to enhance their roster. Still the team to beat.

Stanley Cup Final

Colorado over Pittsburgh

I remember thinking last season that the Penguins could beat any team I saw in a best-of-seven series. Any team, that is, except for the Avs. I just think Colorado has something special and will give the NHL another back-to-back championship team. But the battle of Nova Scotia would be pretty spectacular. And I believe we will see it.

Bonus predictions

(Top photo of Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby: Keith Srakocic / Associated Press)